2012 Parlay

[sbjj]

So the 3 parlay candidates are Sonnen-Olive.-Dunham. The question is which of the 3 has the highest probability of losing.

And I agree with SPX. Dunham straight tooled Tyson both standing and on the ground. He was taking down Tyson easier than anyone(Sherk and Edgar) ever has. I think Dunham is finally realizing how good his wrestling really is, and I would not be surprised if he took Lentz down.

[sbjj]

Anybody have a vid of Lentz/Bocek?

I will do a quick play by play...
Round 1...Bocek takes Lentz down. Lentz looks to have a guillotine, no he does not. Lentz can not get up.


Round 2...See Round 1.

Round 2...See Round 1.

To be honest, it looked like Bocek was not worried about being subbed at all...he seemed to almost give him the guillotines.

[Vandelay]

I think Oliveira has the highest chance of losing and is the least proven. may actually throw a little on wisely. Then dunham.

[MMA_scientist]

Oliveira actually has more fights than Dunham, and has beaten similar level of competition in the UFC, and has similar losses (Dunham beat Griffin and Escudero, Do Bronx beat Lentz and Escudero; Dunham lost to Guillard and Sherk, Do Bronx lost to Cerrone and Miller). I think the difference is that Oliveira is fighting a weaker opponent. I mean, Lentz did beat Griffin- who I condsider Dunham's best win. Oliveira beat the shit out of Lentz (I know it was not a win, but it is a loss in the same way Matt Hammill beat Jon Jones).

That is my issue with the Sonnen fight too... it is not that he is bad, it is that his opponent is going to make it a lot harder for him to win. The distance between Dunham and Lentz is shorter than the distance between Oliveira and Wisely IMO. The same issue with Sonnen. I actually think Sonnen has a better style matchup than Dunham, but I think Bisping is a tougher opponent overall than Lentz.

So I guess it goes Oliveira, Sonnen, Dunham... That is pretty much what the lines say to at this point.

But at the current lines, I think Dunham is the only one I would even consider.

[edman5555]

Where did you see wisely fight video

[edman5555]

Btw sherdog scored Tyson lento 3 rounds for griffin. Mmajunkie scored it 29 28 tyson

[edman5555]

Dunham gets all three rounds on sherdog. He gets two on junkie. Against Tyson that is.

[MMA_scientist]

Dunham killed Griffin. I think Dunham is a super good grappler... his standup is pretty good too, but his grappling IMO. Lentz is a one trick pony on the mat, but he is a pretty solid wrestler too, so there could be a lot of clinching.

Lentz can't beat him except by decision, and even then, it will close. I just wish the line was more like -250 than -350. It is -500 on some sites, which seems pretty damn silly to me. I try to save my -400 lines for things are pretty much locks in my view... I just, it doesn't seem like that kind of fight to me. Still, I am still thinking about betting it.


Maia is up to +140 od 5d. I really don't get that at all. I mean, Weidman is tough and may beat him, but I just don't understand how he can be favored.

[edman5555]

I am going to add einemo to my bets. He is a lot bigger than russow and a very talented grappler. He should have a very big reach advantage as well. Russows striking isn't that great IMO. I def underrated him before but I don't think I am now
. What does everyone else think?

[MMA_scientist]

I like Einemo as a dog... but Russow is a pretty strong wrestler, he is going to be hard to get down. The thing that scares me is that Einemo is old and I think he only has 1 round in him.

[edman5555]

Russow is 35. That fight against Herman was balls to the wall also. Einemo knocker Herman down as well. You are right though, he looked tired. It was also his first fight after a long time. I would think he is in decent shape now.

[edman5555]

Provided he trained and didn't drink his bonus money. Also, he trains at golden glory so he has good training partners for the standup game. I happen to think that is where this fight is taking place. Russow is no world beater on the feet.

[MMA_scientist]

^ yeah, but he is tough to finish standing... I think Einemo will look for the takedown a lot and tire out. I don't know, Russow is fat, but he has shown that he can go for 15 minutes.

But it is +odds... probably worth a play on JOE

[MMA_scientist]

Not Condit, Nelson, Pierce...

They may all get put in the 2012 parlay this weekend.



Mod: Can you move the running total to post #1 please.
Just this part:

1500 to win 158 on "Not Evans by submission"

[poopoo333]

did it for ya..i put myself there too