2012 Parlay

[trotterz]

Will probably do a parlay for next event...not boetsch and bader by sub. Also might add not mark hunt by sub as well...but HW fights are fucking weird

replace hunt by rampage

[trotterz]

after looking at it, Hunt is probably a good option also

[Ludo]

I'm going to try an experimental project with -300 or better favorites. Kind of like a straight bet locks type parlay. If you want, Scientist, I'll make My own thread for it.

Basically I'm going to devote 4u to the project, and just let it ride until I reach a profit of 10u or until it burns.

[MMA_scientist]

You can throw it in here, poopoo will just move it up to post #1 for you.

I tried that back in 2010... and it actually wen't well for a while, but it all came tumbling down one night when I used the bankroll to chase some losses and made some stupid bets. It was after that failed straight bets locks parlay that I started doing the submission props locks parlays.

Good luck, the hard part is making the last few bets in the series, where you are throwing down 10u on a single bet. That's why I took down my bankroll from 2011 locks parlay, I am just playing with the white meat now. I suspect when I get to the end of this year, it is going to be very hard to drop "$4000 to win $67" or something... but I will do it. Then I will probably take it down a little and start with $2000 or so for 2013.

[poopoo333]

Sweet, another 2012 parlay. This is fun.

If I can turn my $400 into $1400 by the end of the year I will be extremely happy...I will cash out the $1,000 and keep the $400 and start over.

[Ludo]

You can throw it in here, poopoo will just move it up to post #1 for you.

I tried that back in 2010... and it actually wen't well for a while, but it all came tumbling down one night when I used the bankroll to chase some losses and made some stupid bets. It was after that failed straight bets locks parlay that I started doing the submission props locks parlays.

Good luck, the hard part is making the last few bets in the series, where you are throwing down 10u on a single bet. That's why I took down my bankroll from 2011 locks parlay, I am just playing with the white meat now. I suspect when I get to the end of this year, it is going to be very hard to drop "$4000 to win $67" or something... but I will do it. Then I will probably take it down a little and start with $2000 or so for 2013.

Thanks. What inspired Me here was actually Svino's contest coupled with the fact that favorites in general have been winning more often than not. Since the contrst started I've hit 11 straight favorites of -300 or worse in the 6 events. Obviously the non vigged lines skew things slightly, but the fact of the matter is if I'd been doing this since the start of the year I'd already be up a considerable amount.

Jake Ellenberger -300
Stipe Miocic -317
Dustin Poirier -376
Charles Oliviera -376
Chael Sonnen -400
Mike Easton -300
Mike Pyle - 376
Rousimar Palhares -426
Luke Rockhold -426
Mo Lawal -426
Tarec Saffeidein -300

Starting from the bottom up(in the order they occured) if I had been doing this the whole time I'd be up over 58u on non vigged lines. Probably somewhere closer to 50u on vigged lines.

I thought about the nervousness to put everything down on one line. Thats why I put a cap of 10u profit before I start back over from 4u, that way it's harder to wipe out entirely in the event of a crash.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I toyed with the idea of splitting the bankroll into 2 or 3 units just so I have a safety net and don't wipe it all out... in fact, that is probably what i will do soon if I can manage to stay a live a few more months. I know that eventually, something shocking is going to happen and someone is going to sub someone they should not. I do feel like I have a good insight into this limited submission area, but flukes happen. So I really do need to figure out a way that factors in a safety net of some kind. The problem with betting -2000 lines is that you have to win like 20 of them in a row to make any real money... so just stacking it up and then taking it down repeatedly is not really an option, like it is with -300 or -400 parlays. If you win 10 of those in a row and you have made a lot of money.

I am still "testing" it out, so that is why the bankroll is what amounts to about 9u for me. I am thinking of making it actual part of my long term strategy though- and in order to do that, I have to factor in the inevitable losses with a saftey net of some kind.

[poopoo333]

I also think a very important part of this strategy is to not force any bets and not to worry about getting a bet for this on every single card.

[Ludo]

Yeah, I toyed with the idea of splitting the bankroll into 2 or 3 units just so I have a safety net and don't wipe it all out... in fact, that is probably what i will do soon if I can manage to stay a live a few more months. I know that eventually, something shocking is going to happen and someone is going to sub someone they should not. I do feel like I have a good insight into this limited submission area, but flukes happen. So I really do need to figure out a way that factors in a safety net of some kind. The problem with betting -2000 lines is that you have to win like 20 of them in a row to make any real money... so just stacking it up and then taking it down repeatedly is not really an option, like it is with -300 or -400 parlays. If you win 10 of those in a row and you have made a lot of money.

I am still "testing" it out, so that is why the bankroll is what amounts to about 9u for me. I am thinking of making it actual part of my long term strategy though- and in order to do that, I have to factor in the inevitable losses with a saftey net of some kind.

Yeah, I only started the year with like a 15u roll since I took a hit last year. But I've come up about 6u since the start of the year and I'm tired of the crazy swings I've been experiencing since last summer. I'll go up 2-4u in a single event, then lose almost that much or more in the following one-to-three events and hovering near even. I think there is money to be made here with the right strategy. Instead of nickel and dime bullshit maybe I can make some solid profit through this, or it'll crash and burn before it gets off the ground and I'll go back to trying to scratch and claw.

[Ludo]

I also think a very important part of this strategy is to not force any bets and not to worry about getting a bet for this on every single card.

Discipline is going to be key. Reserving it for true lock type fighters is going to be important here.

[Ludo]

So we're off. The first play is:

4u to win 1.333u on Ronda Rousey -375 for the March 3rd event.

[SPX]

Interesting that you consider Rousey to be a "true lock." I have also placed a bet on her, but I don't consider her victory a foregone conclusion.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't bet the women, but Rousey only loses if she gasses (which she might, being as she has only fought 30 second fights).

[Ludo]

Even if she gasses what does Tate do better than her? Striking for all intents and purposes is about even here. Tate doesn't have better takedowns, nor better submissions, and she's the smaller woman who's likely to end up on the bottom in any grappling scramble.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, I am going to be betting Rousey for sure.