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Yeah, that is probably good. Not a "lock" but pretty close to one. Frankie only been in one catch that I ever recall- in his first fight in the UFC Tyson Griffin had him in a knee bar. Since then, I don't think he has ever been locked up.
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2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u -
Bader by sub is -8500, I don't even know if that's worth it for the 2012 parlay..unless it is parlayed with something.Comment
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Would rather do "not rampage" it is a lot cheaper and probably about as likely. Rampage rarely attempts submissions, if he puts Bader in a bad position, he is probably just going to wail on him rather than try to slap on a RNC.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Depending on the line(I'm sure it's horrendous) Not Frankie by Sub is probably more of a lock, Bendo is pretty much un submittable at this point.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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The line is a littleworse on that one. -2330 for "Not Edgar by sub" vs. -1881 for "Not Edgar by sub"
Neither one is going to happen, but they are not "locks" IMO. Both guys have solid grappling and Bendo has a tight guillotine. Definitely not going to bet either one in the 2012 parlay, but I will do whichever is cheaper for the magic parlay.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I would do not Edgar by sub. Bendo is turning out to be a good grappler1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Edgar is solid too though, and he doesnt take as many risks. Pettis had bendo's back a bunch. Bendo is good, but he does not have a tight game... he is a scrambler.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah but if Jim Miller and Mark Bocek and Donald Cerrone and Clay Guida couldn't finish the job, I don't see how Frankie does even if he gets a clear shot.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Without a serious flukey occurance, like Edgar rocking Bendo and latching onto an RNC, I really can't see him getting a sub.I heart cockComment
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Full props outt, lez do disComment
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I like not hunt,boetsch, bader by sub parlay. Maybe add akiyama in tooComment
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The lines are all really steep. Not Edgar/Jackson/Hunt/Akiyama/Boetch by sub is -600... that's too much for me. I might wait and see if adding "Not Bart by sub" gets me under my -500 threshhold.
I am considering "Not Akiyama by sub" and/or "not Boetch by sub" for the 2012 parlay. Okami has never been subbed, but Boetch apparently has a tight guillotine, as he has gotten 3 guys with it. Akiyama has subbed a bunch of guys, but no one good... and since he has subbed like 4 people with an ezekiel choke, I have to assume those people were either terrible or the fights were fixed (a no-gi ezekiel is pretty damn difficult to pull off, even against someone letting you put it on). Well the onlys guy with a wiki are Shibata, a pro wrestler with a 4-10 record (including "win" over Minowa, and a "losses" to Sakurai, Sakuraba, Akiyama)... and some guy named Ishizawa, who is also a pro wrestler and is 1-5 in MMA. It could maybe happen, but I kind of doubt it
What say you for 2012 parlay? Shields, Okami, or both?Last edited by MMA_scientist; 02-23-2012, 01:33 PM.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I'm doubting Akiyama subs shields especially if this goes into the 2nd and third rounds. This is Akiyama's first weight cut ever to 170lbs and he's never fought anyone so dedicated to the takedown before. Shields is going to keep going after the takedown until he's certain he can't get it, and then he'll try two or three times more.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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$516.11 to win $55.36 on Not Bader/Hunt/Akiyama/Boetsch by sub
Done.Comment
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Where are you betting this? I wasn't able to get those lines even with an additional bet in there.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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