UFC on Fuel TV 2 in Sweden April 14th

[SPX]

Okay, we're a mere 2 days away from more UFC . . . don't everybody start talking at once.

[poopoo333]

I'm too lazy to research all of these foreigners. But there have been a lot of reporters saying Stann doesn't seem "all there", I guess he had a tough camp, lost a family member, had to move away from Jacksons and only had phone communication with him and the other coaches, etc.

[SPX]

What's all this about having to move away from Jackson's?

I heard him on Beatdown the other day and he sounded fine. . .

[Ludo]

Apparently his brother in law died around christmas and he chose to stay home to be there for his grieving wife and sent videos of his training sessions to Winkeljohn to break down. I think he'll be fine.

[SPX]

Interesting. Well like I said, he sounded fine on Beatdown the other day.

I used to not like Stann that much because I just assumed he was some over-aggressive meathead Marine, but the more I learn about him, the more I like him. I clearly misjudged his personality.

[SPX]

So what bets are everyone seriously considering?

Gustaffson, Stann, Paulo Thiago, and Abedi are all on my radar.

I also took Siver for half a unit at +160. I didn't expect his line to go back up that high but sure enough it did.

[MMA_scientist]

I am thinking about a small bet on Thiago Silva. I think Gustaffson will probably win with his range, but I think the value is on Silva.

I might bet Sakara just out of principle. Stann should not be -400 to anyone IMO. Sakara has a decent ground game, I won't shocked to see him come out looking to grapple. Stann made everyone think he could grapple with Massenzio, but I think that was a fluke, he looked like a fool against Sonnen, and has been subbed several times.

Finally, Nunes. I think he is a very good all around guy that may have the edge standing and grappling here.

[poopoo333]

I like Nunes, Gust, and Carmont. Sakara by sub was around +1500, just sayin. And I like Pickett and Maguire a lot, but they have shit lines so I may parlay the two

[Vandelay]

Just finished up my research on a cpl of the undercard bouts. I've gotten lazy in my betting and relied more on memory than actually watching vids.

Anyway, madadi is a reckless grappler who has below avg standup. Will attempt subs rather than keep position which often results to his opponent getting up or madadi getting swept. Clementi somehow outgrappled him for part of their fight. The cuban has piss poor tdd. really bad. Aggressive fighter on the feet and scrambles alot on the bottom usually to try to get back to his feet. Odds are probably right. Maybe a little too high because of cubans power and madadi's recklessness.

Thoresen has poor standup, no chin, below avg wrestling, and good grappling. Probably shouldnt be a -300 fav to anyone in ufc. However, the guy he is facing is pretty bad. He's got power but thats about it. Fought bums mostly. Poor movement and balance which should result in Thoresen determining where this bout takes place if he is strong enough to take down yousef. Anyway I don't see this fight lasting very long.

Those were the two i focused on. Along with johnson/maguire. Maguire is a tough dude, good grappler, good heart/chin, good wrestler. Johnson probably has the better standup but no tdd and probably wont sub maguire.

Wisely/Young - two standup fighters. Young impressed me with his last 2 fights. Wisely is the better grappler imo but not the best wrestler. I give the edge to Young here but i'm not betting it because I believe odds are accurate.

[Ludo]

IWS y u no in chat?

[poopoo333]

Good start to my lock of the year wiseman:

113935774-1	3/17/12 5:46pm	$50.00	$600.60	Pending	8 Team Parlay
				Win	4/14/12 5:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 Alexander Gustafsson -230* vs Thiago Silva
				Win	4/14/12 4:30pm UFC Fighting 2102 Brian Stann -390* vs Alessio Sakara
				Pending	4/21/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Jon Jones -525* vs Rashad Evans
				Pending	4/21/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Rory MacDonald -510* vs Che Mills
				Pending	5/26/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Cain Velasquez -400* vs Frank Mir
				Pending	6/16/12 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1102 Vitor Belfort -360* vs Wanderlei Silva
				Pending	5/19/12 11:00pm Strikeforce Fighting 2001 Daniel Cormier +115* vs Josh Barnett
				Pending	4/20/12 10:00pm Bellator Fighting 3002 Eddie Alvarez -210* vs Shinya Aoki

[SPX]

Cormier really a "lock of the year?" Alvarez too when he's already been beaten by Aoki once?

[poopoo333]

Cormier really a "lock of the year?" Alvarez too when he's already been beaten by Aoki once?

Yeah, Cormier is definitely the lock of the year. He should be close to -200.

[SPX]

Yeah, Cormier is definitely the lock of the year. He should be close to -200.

So the lock of the year should be -200?

[poopoo333]

So the lock of the year should be -200?

Yeah, so far. Not sure about future fights that haven't been made in 2012 though