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Pretty damn crazy.
• If you bet just one unit on every favorite, you would be +10.4u for the year so far.
• Dogs higher than +200 have gone 1-19, with the only win being Prater's DQ victory over Erick Silva.
• Even if we neglect the vig, the odds that favorites overall would do this well (or better) by random chance is about 1 in 55.
• With a simple model for removing the vig, the odds are more like 1 in 200.
• A person who bet every favorite in my contest would be winning with a score of 5.98.
To make comparisons to past years in the UFC, I have tabulated the average return on a 1-unit fixed-swing bet for different line ranges. With BookMaker's vig (I am using their closing lines), we would expect this value to be around -0.025 for a random bet.
2010
-116 to -199 = -0.088
-200 to -249 = -0.051
-300 to -399 = -0.047
-400 to -599 = +0.074
-600 and lower = -0.155
All favorites: -0.060
All dogs: +0.010
2011
-116 to -199 = -0.101
-200 to -249 = +0.040
-300 to -399 = +0.058
-400 to -599 = +0.044
-600 and lower = -0.238
All favorites: -0.018
All dogs: -0.031
2012 so far
All favorites: +0.140
All dogs: -0.199
• It's interesting to see that 2010, a year in which I formed many of my betting habits, was actually a nice year for dogs. A blind 1u bet on each underdog would have left you with +5.5u for the year.
• 2011 was definitely a better year for favorites than 2011, with value overall in the -200 to -600 range.
• There is obviously a lot of fluctuation with the values here, and possible analysis pitfalls with arbitrary binning / cherrypicking data and such. That said, I am curious if there is some staying power to the idea that -400 to -600 favorites are good bets, and favorites lighter than -200 are weak.
• It doesn't even take that big an edge to be profitable. I had very good years in 2010 and 2011 with average returns on lines I bet of +0.064, and+0.051 (2012 so far: -0.032). The +0.14 return on all favorites so far is insane.
• I still don't know what to make of all this. I don't know if there is something here that represents a change in the way the UFC, or bettors, or oddsmakers are doing things, or if it really is just chance. I am sure it can't be sustainable; bettors will start to change their plays if nothing else.
• If you bet just one unit on every favorite, you would be +10.4u for the year so far.
• Dogs higher than +200 have gone 1-19, with the only win being Prater's DQ victory over Erick Silva.
• Even if we neglect the vig, the odds that favorites overall would do this well (or better) by random chance is about 1 in 55.
• With a simple model for removing the vig, the odds are more like 1 in 200.
• A person who bet every favorite in my contest would be winning with a score of 5.98.
To make comparisons to past years in the UFC, I have tabulated the average return on a 1-unit fixed-swing bet for different line ranges. With BookMaker's vig (I am using their closing lines), we would expect this value to be around -0.025 for a random bet.
2010
-116 to -199 = -0.088
-200 to -249 = -0.051
-300 to -399 = -0.047
-400 to -599 = +0.074
-600 and lower = -0.155
All favorites: -0.060
All dogs: +0.010
2011
-116 to -199 = -0.101
-200 to -249 = +0.040
-300 to -399 = +0.058
-400 to -599 = +0.044
-600 and lower = -0.238
All favorites: -0.018
All dogs: -0.031
2012 so far
All favorites: +0.140
All dogs: -0.199
• It's interesting to see that 2010, a year in which I formed many of my betting habits, was actually a nice year for dogs. A blind 1u bet on each underdog would have left you with +5.5u for the year.
• 2011 was definitely a better year for favorites than 2011, with value overall in the -200 to -600 range.
• There is obviously a lot of fluctuation with the values here, and possible analysis pitfalls with arbitrary binning / cherrypicking data and such. That said, I am curious if there is some staying power to the idea that -400 to -600 favorites are good bets, and favorites lighter than -200 are weak.
• It doesn't even take that big an edge to be profitable. I had very good years in 2010 and 2011 with average returns on lines I bet of +0.064, and+0.051 (2012 so far: -0.032). The +0.14 return on all favorites so far is insane.
• I still don't know what to make of all this. I don't know if there is something here that represents a change in the way the UFC, or bettors, or oddsmakers are doing things, or if it really is just chance. I am sure it can't be sustainable; bettors will start to change their plays if nothing else.
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