How crazy is the current hot streak for favorites in the UFC?
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BJ Penn (-1100) vs. Frankie Edgar
Here, the fact that Edgar's "hummingbird style" was perfect for the type of outside striking match this fight was likely to be should have kept people away. Even so, it took a bad decision.
Rolles Gracie (-1010) vs. Joey Beltran
UFC newcomers = too much uncertainty.
Melvin Guillard (-615) vs. Joe Lauzon
Guillard rightly deserved to be a big favorite, but I guess if a fighter is undisciplined, there's a limit to how steep you should bet.
We are not friends anymore.Comment
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... that was two events ago. And after two events in which 15 of 23 underdogs hit, we have the much more reasonable-looking:
2012 so far
All favorites: +0.004
All dogs: -0.053
So I guess things sorted themselves out pretty quick after all that.Comment
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Yeah, I had a feeling this was going to balance out eventually. It is pretty crazy how it works out almost perfectly though.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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