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2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5u -
Tito Ortiz: He's was doing alright until he ran into Rashad and Rogerio. Rashad obviously has the wrestling to nullify Ortiz's game and the superior standup. Rogerio has very good takedown defense and his standup is worlds better than Ortiz(brazilian boxing champion).
Forrest: Very good all around. Long layoff.
Their first fight was pretty close but Tito gassed. I wonder whether he will be in good enough shape to go three rounds this time.
Griffin probably can't submit him and he probably can't knock him out. He might be able to wear him out and win a decision. Griffin by decision? Maybe Tito by decision? Going the distance sounds good. Winner is hard to pick. I doubt Tito knocks out or submits Griffin. Goes the distance is good or either guy by decision.
I guess I will be going with what PooPoo said for the main event. Chael did dominate Anderson for 5 rounds. The fight should at least be even. That said, I doubt Anderson gets knocked out or submitted by The worlds most Interesting Man. Chael decision is probably a decent bet. Hard to predict but Chael is the right side of the line.
Maia/Kim: Maia came out and said he wants to get back to his roots here. I agree with Scientist that Maia will be at an advantage over Kim's previous opponents due to size equality. Kim has beaten some good guys. Diaz he overwhelmed with Size IMO. Sodallah with takedowns. I think I will go back and watch some more of his fights.
Le/Cote: I don't know who wins this one but I feel like Cote is mostly a standup fighter. So is Cung Le. With Le's kickboxing career I would think he is the more polished striker. He also has a wrestling background, that could help keep it standing. Cote has a lot more experience though. His Belcher loss was after a long layoff and I haven't seen much else of him other than Anderson Silva watching him break his leg. It looks like Cote has been fighting a lot of Grapplers since he left the UFC. Hard one to call but Cung seems like he is as in this one as Cote. Should be even IMO. At even I would take Cung.
Mendes should beat Mckenzie pretty easy. He has one move to use in this one and it is a chokehold. Alpha Male should be able to handle training him for that.
Fukada/Phillipo: I guess I lean Fukada on this one. He beat Nick Ring imo. Nick ring is a good striker with decent takedown defense. NR definetly gave Boetsche some problems. Cantwell isn't that bad IMO. His striking looked solid in the Fukada fight. Cantwell has 2 losses to solid strikers (diabate, cane). Stann and Massenzio beat him as well but they aren't really that bad. I would think his gameplan against Fukada will probably be sprawl +box.Fukuda was a member of the Yamanashi Gakuin University's wrestling team. At the All Japan University Championships, he placed third in 2002 and second in 2003 in his weight class (from Wiki). I guess that makes him a better wrestler than Mcgee. Probably a lot better. I think Fukada is pretty tough. He took a lot of shots in the Cantwell fight IIRC. Leaning Fukada.
The rest I am not certain of. So it looks like I have to watch Fukada, Kim, and Cote.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I have no input on Oliveira and the other guy with a weird last name.
As for the rest of the fights, I believe every single underdog is live with the exception of Cody McKenzie. Some of them are HUGE underdogs compared to what they should be as well imo...Comment
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I do like alot of the underdogs as well. May just bet a unit on all of em and see what happens.Comment
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Thanks for the write ups edman...I like reading those. I think Fukuda should not be anywhere near +200...I will be playing him.Comment
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No problem man. It felt good writing them. I skipped out on a couple of bets I wanted to make before. I wimped out on Daniel Cormier. I almost bet 250-500 on him. I feel pretty decently about this card so I am going to jump on it. Having a good day in general. I'd like to see the Maia/Kim weigh ins. Cung should make weight. He is working with Victor Conte, probably because he is getting up in years. I figure they all are live and worth looking at. If they all look as good as I think then I will probably bet them all. I am thinking Maia by sub also. That should be about +550. I think he gets kim down if he wants to, how often I don't know. Probably quite a bit and if he has enough time, he has a decent shot at the sub. I'm still trying to figure out how to fit Mendes in. I don't know how much money I Want to deposit but probably enough to make 5-7u. I might not even bet mendes, line is crazy but pretty rock solid.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I watched a video of MAia saying he weighed 202 when he fought Anderson in the octagon. April 2010. Watched another video of Maia before the Weidman fight, he was sniffling like crazy. the munoz fight could have went either way and he dominated Grove, Miranda, and Santiago. Still have to watch tape.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Maia just seems to Me like he isn't even training hard anymore. Sick or not he looked like dogshit against Weidman, and his striking has gotten progressively worse in the last year or so. His ground game has slipped alot while he focused on striking and I just don't see the common ground. He went from being amazing at one thing and subpar at the other to average at one and just above average at the other.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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That statement seems to imply that it doesn't matter if he was sick or not. But if in fact he WAS sick, then that goes a long to explaining why he looked like he did.
Have you ever been sick? I've been sick for about the past week. It's like an altered state of consciousness. And your energy levels are way depleted.
If anything, I'd say that if Maia was actually sick and did as well as he did then he would probably win the fight if he was 100%.I heart cockComment
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I realize being sick drains a fighter but who ever fights at 100%? These guys are always banged up come fight time, it's the nature of the beast. It wasn't just his conditioning that looked bad that night. He kept throwing the exact same punch and combo all night long. It was like he went backwards on strike training or something.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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No, he's beating up the Kendall Grove's, Jorge Santiago's, and Mario Miranda's of the world now. My point was he looked at one time like he was evolving into a serious threat anywhere as a fighter. Now he looks more like bringing one area of his game to a respectable standard has cost him everywhere, including that area.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Maia has looked bad against guys that are pretty incredible grapplers themselves. To me, against Munoz and Weidman, Maia looked like he did not want to lose a decision via being on bottom, so he opted to only grapple if he could have the top position, which was not going to happen against those guys. So it was a tactical decision to stand or be on top, when he got taken down in those fights, he went immediately to the half guard to try to get the single leg sweep... which is really playing a wrestler's guard. I think he just made bad tactical decisions. Of course, had he taken the top position, we would probably be talking about how Maia did the smart thing by putting a wrestler on his back (a la the Sonnen fight).
Bottom line is that Weidman and Munoz are fucking studs and there is not really any shame in losing to those guys. He has never lost to a mid tier fighter like Kim. All of that said, I always think Maia is going to win, I convinced myself he was going to beat Silva.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Grove is black belt in bjj with an 80 inch reach. He is definetly mid tier though. To me it comes down to thinking that he can probably take dhk down. They call dhk stun gun but it seems like the only kos he has had was against semi cans in japan. Dhk did not look that impressive to me againts sean pierson either. Pierson might be better than i think thoughh.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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