UFC 154

[poopoo333]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

[MMA_scientist]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

I also want to see Hendricks/GSP happen. I don't care to watch Silva humiliate Bisping.

[Thewisemann]

I am back...didn't see the fights yet but I read the results.

I am pissed I didn't bet Garza, I loved him at +260 but I decided to pass.

I am glad I didn't bet Stout....I was wrong.

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

I want to see GSP/Hendricks and Silva/Bisping before the superfight happens

Silva/Weidman, Bisping is going to sleep

[Thewisemann]

I dont care for the superfight. GSP will be ruined after Silva clowns him, unless GSP wins by lay and pray, which i dont want to see either. Book GSP vs Hendricks and Silva vs Weidman.

[poopoo333]

I 100% agree Silva would clown Bisping, but I just want to make money off of it.

[poopoo333]

I will also be betting on Weidman if he ever fights Silva

[poopoo333]

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

Although different, that defintely contradicts your magic parlay.

I have found fading some bigger names against younger guys is profitable...this relates to Hominick/Garza. Hominick has been very overrated since his unearned title shot/5th round takedown and some punches to a gassed Aldo on the ground. Also, after betting Hominick at -600 (in a parlay) against Yagin made me realize Hominick is just not that good/losing it.....because Yagin is not that good.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I never really thought Hominick was that good, and I think his career is pretty much done at this point, which is why I bet Garza.

It does contradict my magic parlay... I am going to keep that rolling though. I am not sure that the same system Taleb uses would work in gambling, just that it was interesting and got me thinking more about my metality. He sometimes shows losses for years on end. The theory was that 99% of the population stays in the market because they like confirmation of success... they win a little every day, then get wiped out once per decade and they are ok with that, even if they come out behind, they write the one event off as an anomaly. He loses a little every day, then jackpots once per decade. He counts on the one event. I am like most people, in that I couldn't have faith that I was right after years of losing.

[Thewisemann]

I will also be betting on Weidman if he ever fights Silva

+1

[Svino]

I see my Francis Carmont by decision bet was a gift.

The scoring of that fight had a lot in common with Nedkov / Silva. Lawlor had the positional advantage, but Carmont was actually landing more strikes. All the fans and journalists scored the first for Lawlor, but FM has Carmont outstriking him 10-3, and the judges went with that. I had 2u to win 10u on Lawlor by dec., placed near the end of round 1, but seeing the FM stats prompted me to hedge hard on Carmont at the end of the fight (at +130). Glad I did. Boring fight, though.

Your gift was the Cote vs. Sakara result.

[Svino]

I bet Garza after stewing on it a bit. It was really a fade on Hominick. I read this book last week about this guy, Nassim Taleb, who makes a bunch of money basically betting on outlier events in the stock market. He basically bets that stuff that "can't happen" will happen and is convinced that this is really the only value to be found. Anyway, I am going to start betting more dogs.

I also want to see Hendricks/GSP happen. I don't care to watch Silva humiliate Bisping.

I tried to read "Fooled by Randomness" and gave up. Nothing against his ideas specifically, just couldn't take his writing style.

It's hard to tell because the sample size is small, but it does seem that there might be money on average on the really huge dogs. It's a bit different, but the vast majority of my winnings right now come from live prop lines with fairly long odds (like the Lawlor by dec. at +500 mentioned above).

That said, I am still wondering if money could be made betting certain types of live favorites very late in the fight, now that BM has changed the way their betting limits work (you can now bet more than 1k to win 1k on a favorite).

[poopoo333]

Your gift was the Cote vs. Sakara result.

Didn't bet it...was going to though. I probably would have had I been home.

[MMA_scientist]

I tried to read "Fooled by Randomness" and gave up. Nothing against his ideas specifically, just couldn't take his writing style.

I didn't actually read Taleb's book, that would have been way too tedious for me. I read (actually, I listened to the audio book) "What the Dog Saw" which is a collection of essays by Malcolm Gladwell. One of the essays was about Taleb. I enjoyed most of the book, but the Taleb section was relevant to my life, so I did some research on him and his style. I recommend the whole book/collection though, as it is pretty similar to the economist style thinking I strive to achieve.

http://www.amazon.com/What-Dog-Saw-Other-Adventures/dp/0316076201

[poopoo333]

Hendricks at 215 when he isn't in training camp. No wonder why Fat Scientist loves this guy so much.

[poopoo333]

Here we go again.