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I am just thinking leonard might be experinced enoud tough enough to take this.
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By the way leonard fought his last fight with a fractured ankle.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I honestly think Jim Miller is on a bit of a decline, and I am also convinced he was never THAT great. I believe he has a lack of cardio, overrated wrestling, bad wrestling defense, and I do not think he is going to be in the best shape for this fight. See this interview:
He pretty much admitted he was not in shape at all starting his camp for this fight on short notice and was in the "upper 180s".
Let's go through his fights dating back to UFC 100:
Mac Danzig- won a top control decision against a guy that has had problems with these types of fighters
Steve Lopez- Who?
Duane Ludwig-Grappler vs Striker match up.
Mark Bocek- LOL at this decision. Bocek pretty much got all of the takedowns and had Miller in horrible spots during the whole fight. Miller ended up escaping some bad positions and ended up on top for a period of time which somehow won him rounds. Even his hometown was booing the decision.
Gleison Tibau- His best win based on the style match ups imo. However, he was taken down a few times and the fight was pretty damn close.
Charles Oliveira-Overrated. Flashy striker who isn't that great that got hyped up for some quick sub wins. Also a featherweight.
Kamal Shalorus-This guy is 100 years old with a horrible gas tank. He was done after round 1 (and even got a takedown or 2 of his own on Miller)
Melvin Guillard-Guillard is 0-1,000,000 to guys that know how to do a rear naked choke.
Miller's striking is nothing special. His overall takedown game is very overrated imo. Nate Diaz was able to stuff him easily and Diaz is notorious for having bad T3D. He gets put in bad positions on the ground. If he ends up on top Lauzon will more than likely capitalize and get better positions in scrambles. I also will not be surprised to see Lauzon get takedowns of his own.
I also believe Lauzon is coming into his own as a fighter. He is probably reaching his prime right now. I also think his cardio issues are very exaggerated.
UFC 108: Joe Lauzon came back from a serious knee injury and hadn't fought in a year. He was beating Stout's ass round 1 and they were having a "war"...Lauzon gassed after a very high paced round 1 that was back and forth.
UFC 123: Same thing (without the injury layoff)...him and G-Sot were having a very high paced grappling match in round 1 and Lauzon got tired going into round 2.
Fast forward two years: His fight with Varner was insane...lots of back and forth grappling and Lauzon was not gassed. He pulled off a sweep on a strong wrestler in round 3 and got a triangle win. Round 3 finish for the guy that supposedly goes into cardiac arrest after round 1.Comment
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Repped. Great points PP. Actually probably convinced me to bet Lauzon. Assuming my Perez bet wins.Comment
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I may be wrong but I just have a strong feeling about this fight. I loved Miller when it was first announced but I really have come around on Lauzon. I got a good amount on him right now at +180 but if I am doing well up until that point I am going to increase my bet if Lauzon is +200 or better.Comment
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When has he really been proven to have good striking? against Kamal and thats about it and Kamal is like Leonard Garcia. So then it comes down to grappling and his takedowns arent very good either. soooo as long as Joe doesnt gas I like it.Comment
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War LauzonComment
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Good luck.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Joe has been looking good lately but keep in mind that miller tore a muscle in his ankle during the nate fight and nate is no slouch. He has been looking great as well.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I will also be on Wineland tonight as well to win 5 or more units depending on the line. I love him in this fight and have felt this way since the fight was announced. I was just hoping to get him at + odds.Comment
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Most of the lines are pretty similar here ( at mgm) as they are online. Some of the undercard isn't even up yet.Comment
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I like wineland as well. Think he is the superior striker and has some good tdd. I also like Costa alot.Comment
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I cant make a decision on the costa boestche fight. I feel like its going to be really close. One thing Ive noticed about Costa is he tends to fight somewhat defensively. He doesn't go for takedowns and he pretty much only uses his hands. That doesn't mean that is all he will do in this fight but I wouldn't be suprised if that is all he did. That said, Okami was outboxing Boestche from what I understand. I barely watched the fight but it seemed that way. I think that gives Costa the edge standing. The only other thing I Can think of is Boestches wrestling. He should be the best wrestler Costa has fought so far. I could see Tim making something of his wrestling in this one.
I am thinking about betting Belcher. He sounds like he is really game. Okami is a beast. Aside from getting trounced by Anderson he has looked good for a long time.
Anyone notice Melvin was sticking his finger in Varners face? I know confidence is good but usually it is Guillards downfall.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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I like Costa as well but Boetsch using his wrestling worries me. Phillipou showed great T3D against Fukuda though which shows he is improving.Comment
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As for Guillard at the weigh ins...that worries me. When he gets all hyped up like that for fights he ends up losing.
Also, I like Okami in this fight a lot. I believe he will end up at + odds by fight time so I will be putting a decent sized play on him. And by decent I mean pretty big. Going out of 2012 with a bangComment
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