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I really think Edgar wins. I may be feeling pretty damn dumb once the fight is over but I am not going to go against what I think. I have 2u on Edgar by decision @ +385. I will be putting another 2u on him straight, but I am waiting to see where the line goes. +200 is a great line for me, but I can see it getting to around +230.
Rashad Evans will probably have the edge on Lil Nog on the feet and will definitely have the wrestling advantage. Joe Silva does not like to give Lil Nog favorable match ups (well except Tito). Evans' line is too steep to bet straight but I may throw him in a parlay (with Volkmann).
I have a small bet on Bigfoot Silva over Ubereem. Ubereem SHOULD win. He should be able to stuff any takedowns and outstrike Bigfoot. However, if they spend time working against the fence and it gets to round 2, the tempo of this fight could change and go in Bigfoot's favor. I strongly feel that Ubereem's cardio/conditioning is not good at all. Also, a 1+ year layoff as well as potentially not being on his full dosages of whatever he takes due to his random drug testing throughout the year may have an effect on him. Who knows how hard he has really been training in his time off? For all we know, he could have been going through the motions in training and going out and partying all the time (he lives in Miami and is a star) during his suspension. Basically, Bigfoot +300 or better is worth a bet for me because I don't trust Ubereem in this spot.
I have 2u on Maia over Fitch at +150. I think this is a very close fight, but Fitch has a tendency to get put in some bad positions on the mat when he is pressured in the grappling department. He has not showed the best TDD. See the Penn fight (well round 1 before Penn gassed). See the Diego Sanchez fight. I don't think Maia finishes Fitch, but I can see him getting the more dominant positions in this fight for at least 2 out of 3 rounds. I am not super confident but I like the match up here.
Benavidez should win against McCall but it will be closer than the line indicates. Benavidez should definitely have the advantage on the feet but it won't surprise me if he ends up on his back a couple times in the fight which may sway the judges. On the contrary, McCall will probably end up on his back too. Tough to call, but I am picking Benavidez but I won't bet him at the current line.
Dunham/Tibau is a very interesting fight and it's hard to have a good read on. I am picking Dunham but I won't be surprised to see Tibau do his thing with his wrestling which has been a weakness of Dunham in the past. I do think that Dunham will be able to end up on top and will be the better striker. If this fight has a guy +150 or better, that'll be my bet. However, I think it should be a -120/-110 type of line in favor of Tibau based on the style match up.
I am going to be betting Hieron over Woodley if his line is good (around +160 or better or whatever). He has solid TDD, probably better cardio, and should be able to hang on the feet. I think if Hieron gave Askren such problems in Bellator, he will be able to keep it close against Woodley. Really curious to see the line here.
Volkmann is going to steamroll Greene. This is self explanatory. He should be like -600.
Yves Edwards will probably squeak out a win against Vallie-Flagg. He is the better striker imo, and he shouldn't have any significant problems in the grappling department. I don't think Vallie-Flagg is a bad fighter, it's just hard to read him when he hasn't fought any top competition. I would like to watch Flagg vs Calvacante though. Someone post a video.
Chico Camus vs Dustin Kimura. Dustin will win via kimura. ok for real, who are these guys?
Figueroa vs Rivera is going to be a very entertaining feet that should take place on the feet. I think Rivera is the overall better striker/fighter, but he tends to slow down after round 1 which is a concern. I am picking Rivera to win but with his cardio issues I can't really put that much confidence in him.
Discuss...as Edman would say...TEAMWORK!!!
Rashad Evans will probably have the edge on Lil Nog on the feet and will definitely have the wrestling advantage. Joe Silva does not like to give Lil Nog favorable match ups (well except Tito). Evans' line is too steep to bet straight but I may throw him in a parlay (with Volkmann).
I have a small bet on Bigfoot Silva over Ubereem. Ubereem SHOULD win. He should be able to stuff any takedowns and outstrike Bigfoot. However, if they spend time working against the fence and it gets to round 2, the tempo of this fight could change and go in Bigfoot's favor. I strongly feel that Ubereem's cardio/conditioning is not good at all. Also, a 1+ year layoff as well as potentially not being on his full dosages of whatever he takes due to his random drug testing throughout the year may have an effect on him. Who knows how hard he has really been training in his time off? For all we know, he could have been going through the motions in training and going out and partying all the time (he lives in Miami and is a star) during his suspension. Basically, Bigfoot +300 or better is worth a bet for me because I don't trust Ubereem in this spot.
I have 2u on Maia over Fitch at +150. I think this is a very close fight, but Fitch has a tendency to get put in some bad positions on the mat when he is pressured in the grappling department. He has not showed the best TDD. See the Penn fight (well round 1 before Penn gassed). See the Diego Sanchez fight. I don't think Maia finishes Fitch, but I can see him getting the more dominant positions in this fight for at least 2 out of 3 rounds. I am not super confident but I like the match up here.
Benavidez should win against McCall but it will be closer than the line indicates. Benavidez should definitely have the advantage on the feet but it won't surprise me if he ends up on his back a couple times in the fight which may sway the judges. On the contrary, McCall will probably end up on his back too. Tough to call, but I am picking Benavidez but I won't bet him at the current line.
Dunham/Tibau is a very interesting fight and it's hard to have a good read on. I am picking Dunham but I won't be surprised to see Tibau do his thing with his wrestling which has been a weakness of Dunham in the past. I do think that Dunham will be able to end up on top and will be the better striker. If this fight has a guy +150 or better, that'll be my bet. However, I think it should be a -120/-110 type of line in favor of Tibau based on the style match up.
I am going to be betting Hieron over Woodley if his line is good (around +160 or better or whatever). He has solid TDD, probably better cardio, and should be able to hang on the feet. I think if Hieron gave Askren such problems in Bellator, he will be able to keep it close against Woodley. Really curious to see the line here.
Volkmann is going to steamroll Greene. This is self explanatory. He should be like -600.
Yves Edwards will probably squeak out a win against Vallie-Flagg. He is the better striker imo, and he shouldn't have any significant problems in the grappling department. I don't think Vallie-Flagg is a bad fighter, it's just hard to read him when he hasn't fought any top competition. I would like to watch Flagg vs Calvacante though. Someone post a video.
Chico Camus vs Dustin Kimura. Dustin will win via kimura. ok for real, who are these guys?
Figueroa vs Rivera is going to be a very entertaining feet that should take place on the feet. I think Rivera is the overall better striker/fighter, but he tends to slow down after round 1 which is a concern. I am picking Rivera to win but with his cardio issues I can't really put that much confidence in him.
Discuss...as Edman would say...TEAMWORK!!!
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