UFC on FOX 6 January 26th

[SPX]

LOL

[mike]

i put 3.5u on Shawn Jordan. I'm tempting to add more. Anyone wanna talk me out of it, please? Jordan is the better striker of the 2, more athletic with good cardio for a HW. If he can stuff the takedown attempts for Russow, he'll probably win this fight. Russow's td isnt super impressive. I think Jordan will win this. I'm upping my unit to $100/u this year so 3.5u is a big bet for me.

[poopoo333]

I like Shawn Jordan at the line for sure.

I like Hioki at +200.

I will not bet Natal. He should win, but he is a fucking flake.

[mike]

does Hiokis striking look bad to u guys? it seems weak to me and Guida probably gonna beat him on the feet fairly easily. Guida doesnt even need to take down Hioki to win this. Am I overrating Guida and underestimating Hioki here?
i ended up putting 5u total on Jorden. im fucked if he and Grant lose this weekend.

[SPX]

From what I've seen of Hioki, his striking is definitely a little underwhelming. But Guida's is, too. How many fights can you remember where Guida just straight up outboxed his opponent. There are a few, but not many.

[mike]

One thing I def give Guida the advantage is his footwork and overall speed. He is just more athletic, quicker footwork than Hioki. He can move in and out, move around and tag Hioki from the outside. Hioki is nota power puncher and Guida has a good chin so it's unlikely he's gonna be afraid of Hioki's striking. His wrestling and scramble is good enough to stay up or get back up if he has to. But I havent rewatched any vid on Guida yet, just speaking from memory.

[Ludo]

From what I've seen of Hioki, his striking is definitely a little underwhelming. But Guida's is, too. How many fights can you remember where Guida just straight up outboxed his opponent. There are a few, but not many.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Hioki looked pedestrian against an underdeveloped division while Guida looked pedestrian against some of the most talented fighters in the most talented division in the sport. I just think the elite level experience, or at the very least upper middle to high level experience is on Guida's side. He's spent his career fighting guys who either just got out of title fights, or soon after were in title fights, or were at least in talks of title fights. Hioki probably loses to Guida much in the same way he lost to Omigawa which is being controlled by a bigger wrestler who is hard to submit.

Hioki's striking isn't necessarily bad per se, but it's nothing special and there's no real power behind it. His striking revolves around the jab. He loves to stick it out there and keep the opponent at range, but without some pop to it Guida isn't going to give a shit when he's charging for takedowns.

[SPX]

Indeed. Well that sounds like pretty sound reasoning and you're probably right. I do favor Guida. Just not sure about his line. If he gets to -200, I'll pull the trigger.

[Ludo]

Indeed. Well that sounds like pretty sound reasoning and you're probably right. I do favor Guida. Just not sure about his line. If he gets to -200, I'll pull the trigger.

I expected him to open around -225 ish so if he opens on the book I use at under -235 I'll bet him.

[poopoo333]

I really like "Not Glover ITD" at -145.

[edman5555]

Why glover has huge power and he is a bjj champ.

[trotterz]

Why glover has huge power and he is a bjj champ.

Probably because Rampage has only been finished once in the last 8 years and it was by Jon Jones.
Teixeira is no Jones.

Additionnaly, Jones finished Rampage in the 4th round. Therefore, since Glover/Rampage fight is a 3rnd fight, I have a hard time seeing Teixeira finish Rampage in 3 rnd while Jones couldn't do it.

[poopoo333]

Why glover has huge power and he is a bjj champ.

Because I don't think Rampage is going to get finished.

[edman5555]

How many of his opponents had a good ground game? Almost none of them were talented submissionists except for machida and he took rampage down and got his back very quickly. Glover was the adcc winner rep for brazil. He has the ability to submit him. He also has the ability to knock him out.

[MMA_scientist]

Rampage is tough to submit. I think Glover has more of a positional game, like he is good at getting mount... he would probably use it to drop punches though. he might get the RNC if Rampage turned his back on him. He could stop him of course, but I think it would be Shogun style if he did, just by brutal beating. I don't even think Glover goes for TDs very often, he is probably going to want to bang. And of course, Rampage is very hard to take down anyway.