UFC 158 MArch 16th

[mike]

odds out on The Ring, Ricci fights. 5Dimes

[edman5555]

Bookmakers lines are pretty shitty

[Svino]

I bet GSP to win by decision at -198 to win 5 units.

That's a great line. Bookmaker's will probably be like -400.

[Thewisemann]

Gsp should be -1000. Here.

[poopoo333]

I bet GSP to win by decision at -198 to win 5 units.

I really don't think Diaz has an out here at all. GSP is going to kick his legs, take him down, and do what he always does.

[Ludo]

Nick's chances are slim and none here. His hype is going to have some people betting him but I don't honestly see him being able to pull off the sub. His sweeps aren't as good as Condit's are, and I just don't see how he stops the takedown. Even without a double GSP could leg drag Nick or knee tap him without much of an issue. When standing GSP is going to control distance with that jab he likes so much until he feels like taking it down, and then he's going to cut Diaz up with elbows.

[mike]

anyone like GSP TKO at +600? his ITD line is at +400. He can catch Diaz with high kick or throw elbow and maybe get a TKO via cut. He probably aint gonna sub Diaz.

[SPX]

Remember that Nick lost a round to welterweight BJ. And also lost to Condit, who just got mauled by GSP. And he almost fought a close, competitive fight with Daley, who pretty much washed out of the UFC. I certainly don't think GSP is unstoppable, but I really doubt Nick's the guy to do it.

[edman5555]

True. I am only hesistant because Nick is a relentless competitor. He is very good at subbing dudes and he can connect. Generally he has to draw someone into a brawl standing though. I doubt he can do that with GSP. I do think its possible for him to catch a sub. Maybe I am alone on this which could be a sign I am wrong.

[SPX]

Catches GSP with a punch or submits him off his back.

Sure. He could Serra him. But when is the last time Nick knocked anyone out with one punch? And when was the last time GSP got subbed?

[edman5555]

He learns to wield supernatural powers.

Catches GSP with a punch or submits him off his back.

[SPX]

so how does Diaz win this fight?

He learns to wield supernatural powers.

[SPX]

I thought GSP looked great against Condit. He dominated all but about 3 minutes of that fight. If anything, it was confirmation to me that he didn't lose much if anything during his layoff rather than the other way around.

[mike]

so how does Diaz win this fight?

[edman5555]

Yeah, he's used the knee tap pretty well. And no, I wouldn't say his takedowns against Condit looked *that* bad. But I think all of the successful TD's were shot from in close. I didn't see any of those amazing double-legs he was known for where he made closing 7 feet of distance look effortless.

Maybe he was worried about Condits quick reflexes and ko power.