UFC on FOX Sports 1: 1 8/17

[Luke]

He's an irish boxing champion by the way.

Why am I not surprised?

[edman5555]

After watching those videos a couple times i feel like conor should win. Leonard garcia was giving holloway a good fight on the feet. I still worry about him getting countered though, his style is pretty crazy. Capoeira kicks, spinning, etc. i do not approve.

[poopoo333]

[SPX]

With the way Brown's been performing lately, he might be worth it at that line.

[Vandelay]

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/8/10/4598202/conor-mcgregor-the-future-of-the-featherweight-division

[edman5555]

I could see pyle getting him on the ground. I think matt wins the standup though.

[poopoo333]

I might be changing my avatar. I'm not 100% confident in Sonnen anymore after looking at the fight more.

Shogun has poor defensive wrestling. Sonnen has great offensive wrestling.

Shogun has decent/underrated offensive wrestling. Sonnen's defensive wrestling is not up to par with his offensive wrestling and he can definitely be taken down (see Silva/Sonnen I in round 4)

I actually think Jon Jones and his camp saw that hole in Sonnen's game and "Sonnen'd Sonnen". A lot of people see Shogun as a striker who always wants to keep the fight on the feet but that doesn't always seem to be the case. Let's look at Shogun's previous fights:

Gustafsson....he shot for takedowns first. Sure, he got stuffed and ended up on his back for most of the fight but Gustafsson is a big, strong, athletic guy who actually stuffed Phil Davis fairly easily before shooting for his own TD and getting subbed. If you are thinking "well Sonnen is a better wrestler than Gustafsson so he should be able to stuff Shogun" think about this: Gustafsson is a big LHW and was fighting against Shogun...a fairly small LHW. Sonnen should be fighting at MW and he knows that hence why he is dropping down to 185 again after this fight.

Vera...Shogun's gameplan from the start was to take him down and he implemented that well, although he got exhausted and ended up getting into a sloppy brawl with Brandon "bum" Vera before getting the win.

Hendo..same thing. Shogun shot on Hendo pretty damn quick and was able to get on top at times. I always felt Hendo had poor defensive wrestling and that's actually why I bet Shields in their fight. However, he didn't look bad in that department against Rashad so maybe I don't have that accurate of a read on Hendo's defensive wrestling.

Moving on to some other factors:

Even if Shogun can neutralize Sonnen by getting on top, he fades badly in fights, especially where the other fighter is pushing the pace and we all know the pace Sonnen sets and even sticks to when he is tired himself. I really don't see a way Shogun can win this fight by decision with his cardio issues.

If Sonnen can implement his game early, I think it's a wrap to be honest if he can avoid getting finished within the first 2 rounds. Shogun's cardio against someone like Sonnen just won't hold up in Sonnen's type of fight.

Shogun has a 34% takedown defense rate in the UFC.

Based on the above shit about Shogun initiating his own takedowns, I think he might come to do that early because he knows his TDD is bad and shouldn't hold up against Sonnen (unless he is stupid) so I don't think it's going to be him trying to "sprawl and brawl" like people think he has to do.


Thoughts? It's a real interesting fight and before actually looking at it I thought Sonnen at -140 had incredible value.

[trotterz]

I might be changing my avatar. I'm not 100% confident in Sonnen anymore after looking at the fight more.

Shogun has poor defensive wrestling. Sonnen has great offensive wrestling.

Shogun has decent/underrated offensive wrestling. Sonnen's defensive wrestling is not up to par with his offensive wrestling and he can definitely be taken down (see Silva/Sonnen I in round 4)

I actually think Jon Jones and his camp saw that hole in Sonnen's game and "Sonnen'd Sonnen". A lot of people see Shogun as a striker who always wants to keep the fight on the feet but that doesn't always seem to be the case. Let's look at Shogun's previous fights:

Gustafsson....he shot for takedowns first. Sure, he got stuffed and ended up on his back for most of the fight but Gustafsson is a big, strong, athletic guy who actually stuffed Phil Davis fairly easily before shooting for his own TD and getting subbed. If you are thinking "well Sonnen is a better wrestler than Gustafsson so he should be able to stuff Shogun" think about this: Gustafsson is a big LHW and was fighting against Shogun...a fairly small LHW. Sonnen should be fighting at MW and he knows that hence why he is dropping down to 185 again after this fight.

Vera...Shogun's gameplan from the start was to take him down and he implemented that well, although he got exhausted and ended up getting into a sloppy brawl with Brandon "bum" Vera before getting the win.

Hendo..same thing. Shogun shot on Hendo pretty damn quick and was able to get on top at times. I always felt Hendo had poor defensive wrestling and that's actually why I bet Shields in their fight. However, he didn't look bad in that department against Rashad so maybe I don't have that accurate of a read on Hendo's defensive wrestling.

Moving on to some other factors:

Even if Shogun can neutralize Sonnen by getting on top, he fades badly in fights, especially where the other fighter is pushing the pace and we all know the pace Sonnen sets and even sticks to when he is tired himself. I really don't see a way Shogun can win this fight by decision with his cardio issues.

If Sonnen can implement his game early, I think it's a wrap to be honest if he can avoid getting finished within the first 2 rounds. Shogun's cardio against someone like Sonnen just won't hold up in Sonnen's type of fight.

Shogun has a 34% takedown defense rate in the UFC.

Based on the above shit about Shogun initiating his own takedowns, I think he might come to do that early because he knows his TDD is bad and shouldn't hold up against Sonnen (unless he is stupid) so I don't think it's going to be him trying to "sprawl and brawl" like people think he has to do.


Thoughts? It's a real interesting fight and before actually looking at it I thought Sonnen at -140 had incredible value.

IMO Sonnen is probably going to shoot right away anyway. So you shouldn't have to be concerned about his TDD. Add that to Shogun's 34% takedown defense and I think Shogun will be on his back quickly. After one full round on his back trying to get back up, Shogun will probably already start to gas. Sonnen shouldn't have any problem with a gassed Shogun.
For the record, I am not betting on that fight. I can't make up my mind on the clear winner even though from what I just wrote it seems that I see Sonnen as the clear winner.

[poopoo333]

IMO Sonnen is probably going to shoot right away anyway. So you shouldn't have to be concerned about his TDD. Add that to Shogun's 34% takedown defense and I think Shogun will be on his back quickly. After one full round on his back trying to get back up, Shogun will probably already start to gas. Sonnen shouldn't have any problem with a gassed Shogun.
For the record, I am not betting on that fight. I can't make up my mind on the clear winner even though from what I just wrote it seems that I see Sonnen as the clear winner.

This is how I pretty much feel but I am kind of playing devils advocate and coming up with all the scenarios that may happen. I left out "Sonnen gets KTFO immediately" though.

[Luke]

Man, I have no idea how this fight goes. I can see anything happening from Sonnen getting TKO'd in rd 1 to Sonnen humping him for 5rds. I'm just going to watch

[edman5555]

If I had to take anyone I would take Shogun at the current line but I can see a clear path to victory for Sonnen. I agree that Sonnen should shoot for the takedown pretty early on. Of course you left out Shoguns very offensive ground game. I wouldn't be shocked to see him be able to use it to get back to his feet or submit Chael.

[Ludo]

If I had to take anyone I would take Shogun at the current line but I can see a clear path to victory for Sonnen. I agree that Sonnen should shoot for the takedown pretty early on. Of course you left out Shoguns very offensive ground game. I wouldn't be shocked to see him be able to use it to get back to his feet or submit Chael.

I wouldn't exactly call Shogun's ground game offensive. He's great at creating scrambles and getting back to his feet but he doesn't really do a whole lot from the bottom really. Usually he avoids taking a ton of damage on the ground(except from Hendo after that H-bomb rearranged his face) but he doesn't really have a plan other than tie up until he can create space and then explode out. At this point if Sonnen avoids getting destroyed early on he probably wins the fight because I think Sonnen makes Shogun work enough that Rua will be experiencing a cardiac infarction by the end of round 3.

[trotterz]

This place is dead

[MMA_scientist]

This place is dead

everyone retired except poopoo.

[poopoo333]

Well duh I ain't 55 yet nigga