2014 Off Topic Thread

[trotterz]

I'm not pretending we are geniuses for picking Seattle. I actually picked SF over Seattle in the NFC Championship. I'm just saying this inst luck. The biggest bettors in the world make their money on the NFL, so it can be beat

I kind of agree with you. I used to place bet on hockey as here in Canada, hockey is #1 sport. The thign with hockey if that the #1 team in the league could play a game agains'nt the worst team in the league, and the best team will lose 5-0. It happens regularly pretty much every night. There is no sure thing in hockey. As in Football, usually, if Denver are playing jacksonville, there is no way that Jacksonville will win 40-0. usually (not always), the best team wins.
Same thing could be said in soccer ..... A soccer game can oftenly end 1-0 ... so let's say a really bad team are just lucky to score one goal from far away agains't the best team in the league, the game could easily end this way.
IMO footbal is probably the easiest team sport to bet and make money on

[Luke]

I'm not pretending we are geniuses for picking Seattle. I actually picked SF over Seattle in the NFC Championship. I'm just saying this inst luck. The biggest bettors in the world make their money on the NFL, so it can be beat

[Luke]

I disagree that level of scouting doesn't matter. The more scouted the game is, and the more action on the game, the more efficient the betting market is going to be. The lines are sharper. Maybe you figured it out, but you can't tell me you foresaw a blowout like that by the underdog.

Its a statistical fact that the line only comes into account in 20% of all NFL games. The rest of the time, just picking the winner of the game wins you your bet. By those standards, it didn't matter how sharp the line( point spread) was on this game. If you can pick who is going to win the game, you'll win 80% of your wagers.

Did I predict a Seattle blowout, no, but I also didn't think the points would matter and that's why I took the ML rather than the points. In all honesty, I expected Seattle to win by 7-10 points.

I also pay zero attention to who the public is on FWIW.

[MMA_scientist]

The thing that really turned me onto the Seahawks after leaning them already was seeing the public side all on Denver on the biggest game of the year. I like to fade the public on big games...it usually works out.

This, I can understand. You have a methodology, you saw signs indicating an opportunity based on line movement. To me, that's different than believing that you have a beat on how the game will roll out.

[MMA_scientist]

It doesn't matter how scouted a game is . The only thing that matters is sorting through the BS and breaking down the game--which we did. We weren't lucky; the game couldn't have been a bigger blowout.

I disagree that level of scouting doesn't matter. The more scouted the game is, and the more action on the game, the more efficient the betting market is going to be. The lines are sharper. Maybe you figured it out, but you can't tell me you foresaw a blowout like that by the underdog.

[poopoo333]

The thing that really turned me onto the Seahawks after leaning them already was seeing the public side all on Denver on the biggest game of the year. I like to fade the public on big games...it usually works out.

[Luke]

I don't think betting the super bowl is a long term winning strategy. I know you guys won, so congrats, but if you told me you were going to bet the super bowl again tomorrow I would still sit it out. It is the most scouted game of the year, I really don't think I know more than everyone else about football. I think the NFL is probably the toughest sport to win consistently.

Basically, you guys got lucky. It still counts, and I am not hating, but it is just a slot machine IMO.

That said, I will take a flyer on a game if you have a feeling, so let me know.

It doesn't matter how scouted a game is . The only thing that matters is sorting through the BS and breaking down the game--which we did. We weren't lucky; the game couldn't have been a bigger blowout.

[Luke]

I can't quit you IWS. I've tried.

Someones been watching Brokeback Mountain

[Mr. IWS]

I can't quit you IWS. I've tried.

lol

[MMA_scientist]

I've noticed in general that when people bounce out of internet communities, they tend to go suddenly and go for good.

I can't quit you IWS. I've tried.

[MMA_scientist]

I tried to talk you into betting Seattle also. Was the easiest bet of the year. Poopoo made 5k just off that game

I don't think betting the super bowl is a long term winning strategy. I know you guys won, so congrats, but if you told me you were going to bet the super bowl again tomorrow I would still sit it out. It is the most scouted game of the year, I really don't think I know more than everyone else about football. I think the NFL is probably the toughest sport to win consistently.

Basically, you guys got lucky. It still counts, and I am not hating, but it is just a slot machine IMO.

That said, I will take a flyer on a game if you have a feeling, so let me know.

[edman5555]

I've noticed in general that when people bounce out of internet communities, they tend to go suddenly and go for good.

Why do you think that is?

[Svino]

Its kinda amazing that spx left for so long.

I've noticed in general that when people bounce out of internet communities, they tend to go suddenly and go for good.

[Luke]

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[Luke]

Start posting your thoughts on here?

I do whenever I have them.