UFN 74: Holloway vs Oliveira

[Luke]

Fight card starts an hour early this Saturday

Figh pass prelims start at 6pm eastern

Foxs Sports 1 prelims start at 7pm eastern

Main card on Fox Sports 1 starts a 9pm eastern

[poopoo333]

It's Sunday.

[Luke]

It's Sunday.

Jesus FUCK!! I didn't even realize that. Just ruined my plans for Saturday

[HeyBoone]

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:



I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.

[HeyBoone]

That's what I think. I think the dog probably loses but odds are too high for Holloway. I like Erik Silva. After watching Magny get raped by Maia, I realized how big of a bum he is. Silva is a bum too, but he usually beats other bums

I don't know what to think about Burkman-Cote.

A bit rough on Magny here, dude is not even close to a bum but it's clear he needs A TON of work on his back. Silva still only has a real chance to win in Round 1, it's a great chance but it's still only one round. If Magny survives his length, angles and straight punches will make Silva wilt and Magny will pour it on late.

Again Silva has a GREAT chance to win early but that's it. His R1 prop is +250 but his ML is -170, doesn't make sense to me honestly. It's not a foregone conclusion but it's about as certain as anything can be in MMA it's Silva R1 or bust.

Oliveira def. has had a tendency to wilt in the past. He did fight on against Lentz in the rematch despite having trouble seeing and that was a grueling fight on the other hand.

Absolutely true BUT despite losing the second round to Lentz it was due to grappling so at least Oliveira got to work his game a bit. That would be a bit different if he was on the feet getting tagged for a full round instead. I think if he has to stay on the feet he will get much more discouraged fighting Holloway rather than losing a grappling round with Lentz. I could just be making shit up though!

[Luke]

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:



I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.

Nice breakdown, and welcome to the forum.


I agree with the Oliveira sub prop. Its the only path to victory for him, imo. I really think the best bet in the fight is fight doesn't go the distance at -300. Oliveira is going to get KO'd/TKO'd from the neverending strikes, or get caught in a sub. The only reason I wouldn't pound Holloway here is you don't know if he's going to make a mistake. He's young...young fighters make mistakes. He could win 2 rounds and start to get cocky and get caught. I don't want to lay -240 and have to hold my breath for several rounds as Oliveira keeps trying to pull off a sub

Calling Magny a bum...dont mind me, I call a lot of people bums. If you noticed, I call Silva one also.

Silva would have lost to Story, imo. Silva wilts to pressure and that's all Story does. If Silva is smart( no one said he is), he goes straight for the takedown in this fight and grapples Magny until he submits him....which I think he does in this fight.

I believe you mean the over is juiced in this fight...which is weird. I don't know what to think about that to be honest.


I thought Holloway/Oliveira being only 1.5 was odd, also. Expected it to be around 2.5

[SPX]

->Spoiler Alert!<-

Hey guys I was 'recruited' from Sherdog by someone on these forums and have been encouraged to post here. Anyways I have been active in a betting community on Sherdog for may years and I will make a point to post my thoughts here too. I am pasting these thoughts here for now since I already posted them in days past so please excuse any spots where it sounds weird or like I'm replying to someone.

Holloway Vs. Oliveira

Holloway is just surging right now and his hands are lethal despite him maybe not having R1 KO power he can end fights with his accuracy and body work.

Cerrone landed a nice Body shot that crumpled Oliveira and led to a finish:



I do agree that Max might not follow Oliveira to the ground but you never know.

A R3, R4, R5 play on Max might be some nice lines to look at, I really love doing those plays, recent ones being Romero R3, JJ R3. Wishing I bet TJ R3, R4 as well...

I can see Oliveira getting worn out and discouraged and eventually succumb to finish by strikes, at least likely enough to bit one those late finish props.

I also agree that Oliveira basically ONLY wins by SUB so it's a good hedge to any Holloway plays. Either way I don't think Oliveira has the stamina to last 5 rounds without Holloway putting a beatdown on him in the later rounds. Late finish by Max is my pick and bet once my books open up props (I don't have 5dimes)

Magny Vs. Silva

It's weird that the under in Silva / Magny is -175 but Silva is a moderate favorite as well, doesn't really make much sense when considering Silva's history.
Silva is a bit more wild and submission over position which could lead to a quicker submission in a scramble than Maia found being more methodical. Like you said though it would likely be based on a scramble since Silva shouldn't be looking for any TD's here.

Either way whichever finish it is be it KO or SUB I think Silva has a better chance at finding one against a late replacement Magny than he did against Story.

My bets for this event so far are only:

Cote/Burkman Over 2.5 @ -160
Silverio/Campbell Over 1.5 @ -200
Laprise/Trinaldo Over 2.5 @ -230
Holloway/Oliveira Over 1.5 @ -220

Worked well for the 4 Overs I did this with on the last event, try and keep this rolling.

Certainly dangerous and there is the possibility of the sub but I bet this line at -135 and strongly believe there is value in this going over 2.5 at least 60% of the time. Burkman could get a SUB or there could be a TKO on either side but I don't think all those chances combined add up to 40%of all outcomes.

I have a breakdown for the Lineker/Rivera fight coming up too so I will post that in the right thread rather than clog this one up.

I don't feel too great about betting this event but I like the Over's that I posted above.

On top of these I am looking into:

Holloway R3, R4, R5
Oliveira SUB (maybe for a hedge)
Silva R1
Magny R2/R3

Honestly I don't feel this card for betting so I will try not to force myself, one of the many lessons I've learned over the years.

Cheers guys and I look forward to getting into discussions with everyone here.

Hell of a write up, Boone. I more or less agree with all of what you said. Looks like you play a lot of props. I'd be curious to hear about how that works out for you. I've always had bad luck with with those.

[SPX]

A bit rough on Magny here, dude is not even close to a bum but it's clear he needs A TON of work on his back.

Oh, don't mind him. Luke thinks that anyone outside of the top 5 is a bum.

[HeyBoone]

Hell of a write up, Boone. I more or less agree with all of what you said. Looks like you play a lot of props. I'd be curious to hear about how that works out for you. I've always had bad luck with with those.

I try to play more straight money line bets than anything else since I found that to be the most effective way to make money in the long run but sometimes I'm in a position where I don't like anything other than some prop bets.

I do like the value of all of the Overs that I selected and thought it would be fun to do a round robin like I did for the last event with great success.

Get used to my long winded breakdowns, I tend to get a little carried away at times.

Last event I played the same round robin on these 4 lines:

Kakai/Saenz O 2.5
Camozzi/Watson O 2.5
Holtzman/Christodoulou O 1.5
Rosholt/Johnson O 1.5

Can't recall the exact lines and too lazy to look it up but I risked 10u and returned just over 25u. Fights that I contemplated for this round robin were the overs on McMann/Nunes (2.5) and Brunson/Alvey (2.5) but ultimately I thought they were risky and might finish early so I avoided those lines and sure enough those fights wound up being finished!

Still no props on my current books (BM and SI) so I will wait and post again once I take a few of those props and finalize my bets.

[SPX]

Good luck with everything. Like I said, in my experience, props have always backfired. I'll have a guy who hasn't finished a fight in 5 years and I'll bet him to win by decision and then he'll get a KO. Shit like that. It's happened so many times I've just kind of been scared away.

[Luke]

Good luck with everything. Like I said, in my experience, props have always backfired. I'll have a guy who hasn't finished a fight in 5 years and I'll bet him to win by decision and then he'll get a KO. Shit like that. It's happened so many times I've just kind of been scared away.

->Spoiler Alert!<-

Pussy

[HeyBoone]

Meh you're still just playing the odds. Even if a guy only has a 10% chance to win by KO that chance is still there. Value is value and if you only make bets that you believe have value and you are a good capper then you will win in the long run. Like Shields will never get a KO but there is still the chance and if you bet him by decision and he winds up getting a KO that could just be the 1/10 (example) outcome of that fight. Just because one thing happens doesn't necessarily mean that your bet was wrong.

You probably know this but it's nice to remember that "shit happens" and you never truly know. Getting burned on shit like that is pretty brutal though.

There are infinite ways a fight can play out and we only ever get to see one of them and we just have to make our best guess as to how those infinite possibilities translate into the final outcome of the fight. At least that's what I say to myself to stop me from pulling my hair out.

[SPX]

->Spoiler Alert!<-

Pussy

BOL! Now that Luke has discovered spoiler tags he is like a kid in a candy store.

[Luke]

BOL! Now that Luke has discovered spoiler tags he is like a kid in a candy store.

Bol! They are kind of nice.

This forum has came a long way. When I started here, you had to HTML your own posts instead of tags

[HeyBoone]

People always talk about "hometown advantage' when it comes to judges and use this to influence their bets. Here is some data I pulled:

From 2014 up until the last event I checked out all of the split decisions in the UFC only. I bring this up because there are a lot of Canadians fighting in Canada this weekend. I personally don't take this into account but some so.

DISCLAIMER: A split decision loser on home turf does not necessarily mean that they got robbed, they could have only won on one judge because of favouritism that didn't quite work out. These stats don't show the full picture because a split decision doesn't mean the loser was robbed every single time, often they are the right decision.

of the 44 fights where there was a clear hometown fighter, in 21 of those fights the winner was the hometown guy. In the other 23 fights the foreigner ended up winning the split decisions.

Obviously there were also unanimous decisions that were terrible decisions but it was just easier to get split decision data from MMADecisions.com and I'm too lazy to do any more.

Here is the raw data I used

->Spoiler Alert!<-

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Winner Loser Place
Catone (NJ) Watson (UK) NJ
Trinaldo (BRA) Ronson (CAN) BRA
Alcantara (BRA) Tumenov (RUS) BRA
Chavez (USA) Cedeno (CUB) USA
Davis (CAN) Eye (USA) USA
Andrade (BRA) Pennington (USA) USA
Garcia (DOM) Spencer (USA) USA
Stringer (NL) Barroso (BRA) BRA
Bocek (CAN) Torre (USA) CAN
Jingliang (CHI) Michaud (USA) USA
Perralta (USA) Bezerra (BRA) BRA
Letourneau (CAN) Phillips (USA) CAN
Guimaraes (BRA) Enz (USA) USA
Ellenberger (USA) Moontasri (GER) USA
Hester (USA) Neto (BRA) USA
Santos (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Lee (USA) Ronson (CAN) USA
Wee (SIN) Zhikui (CHI) CHI
Natal (BRA) Camozzi (USA) USA
Tibau (BRA) Hallma (POL) BRA
Kang (KOR) Tanaka (***) ***
Kunimoto (***) Walsh (USA) ***
Taleb (CAN) Jingliang (CHI) CAN
Felder (USA) Saggo (CAN) CAN
Story (USA) Nelson (ICE) SWE
Elkins (USA) Martins (BRA BRA
Silva (BRA) Edwards (ENG) BRA
Camus (USA) Pickett (ENG) USA
Means (USA) Alexandre (BRA) BRA
Sanchez (USA) Matsuda (***) USA
Martins (BRA) Khabilov (RUS) BRA
Lazaro (BRA) Krause (USA) USA
Noke (AUS) Webb (USA) AUS
Makashvili (GOR) Eddiva (PHI) PHI
Natal (BRA) Hall (USA) USA
Dalby (DEN) Santos (BRA) BRA
Trinaldo (BRA) Parke (IRE) BRA
Collier (USA) Abreu (BRA) USA
Rodriguez (MEX) Rosa (USA) MEX
Howard (USA) Pendred (IRE) USA
Bisping (ENG) Leites (BRA) SCO
Dariush (IRN) Johnson (USA) USA