UFC 217 Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Stephen Thompson (13-2-1 MMA, 8-2-1 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’0″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 75″
Last fight: Decision loss to Tyron Woodley (Mar. 4, 2017)
Camp: Upstate Karate (South Carolina)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ Kempo karate black belt
+ 5x kicboxing world champion
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Knocked down 5 of last 7 opponents
+ Superb footwork and range management
^ Plays in and out of striking range
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Instinctually intercepts with punches
+ Improved wrestling (defensively and offensively)
+ Underrated clinch game
^ Good head position/strikes off breaks



Jorge Masvidal (32-12 MMA, 9-5 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
Last fight: Decision loss to Demian Maia (May 13, 2017)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ AFC welterweight title
+ Undefeated in the streets
+ 13 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Slick boxing technique
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Improved kicking game
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid balance and footwork
+ Active transition and clinch game
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Underrated submision acumen
^ Works well from front-headlock



Summary:

In a potential welterweight war, Stephen Thompson squares off with Jorge Masvidal.

Coming off of two failed attempts against champion Tyron Woodley, Thompson attempts to get back on track in a familiar venue. Seeking to spoil his party – and likely walking out the theme from “Scarface” while doing so – is Masvidal, a top-ranked welterweight who’s also looking to rebound in style.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two slick strikers with a lot of experience outside of the cage.

Masvidal, a streetwise warrior who has turned into one of the savvier strikers among his contemporaries, operates with the comfort of a longtime veteran. Feinting forward and initiating with his jab, Masvidal has always had a knack for pulling and returning punches with his opponents.

At lightweight, the Cuban’s style and available output had him arguably too comfortable at times, costing him crucial rounds in close fights – fights that many thought he had won. That said, we have seen a different iteration of Masvidal since his ascension up the welterweight division.

Now, pursuing much more aggressively, Masvidal will mix in his improved kicks off of Thai-style marches. Working well off of his patented lefthand, Masvidal controls the centerline with authority, variating between straight punches and hooks appropriately.

What makes Masvidal such a sound stalker is the fact that you will rarely catch him out of position. Nevertheless, Masvidal will have a unique problem to solve at UFC 217.

One of the few fighters to successfully translate traditional martial arts into MMA at a high level, Thompson incorporates a lot of fundamentals and principles that could serve him well in this matchup.

With footwork often being the quiet killer in the upper echelons of MMA, Thompson’s switch-stance stylings give him some options in regards to taking away Masvidal’s jab or limiting potential takedown attempts, especially from the southpaw stance.

In facing one of the most technically sound welterweight strikers in Rory MacDonald, we saw Thompson take away the Canadian’s jab using superb outside-foot awareness.

Keeping his lead foot just outside of his opponent’s lead foot, Thompson was able to shut down the traditional striking lanes, leaving MacDonald looking hesitant. Albeit a small detail, it was an impressive one since Thompson was able to consistently set or replace his foot to that position throughout the entire 25-minute fight.

With Thompson’s foot placement giving him inherent edges in exchanges, his wide array of attack angles and options could start to take shape if Masvidal fails to stifle him early.

Still, the Cuban is the more experienced mixed martial artist and one who should have a quiet but clear advantage on the mat. An excellent wrestler, Masvidal has the chops to ground Thompson if he gets a hold of him.

Given that Thompson tends to fight from the fence at times, I could certainly see a path for Masvidal, who just so happens to score most of his takedowns in that space. Regardless, pinning Thompson down can be easier said than done, and his improved wrestling defense doesn’t make it any easier.

If Masvidal does get Thompson grounded, I will be interested to see what both fighters’ urgency is like once they hit the floor.

Masvidal has an underrated submission game, but I am not sure he will find a finish here. However, if Thompson is reluctant to create a scramble, then he could cost himself another crucial round via control time.

Although the oddsmakers opened Thompson as a 2-1 favorite, the potential of each fighter on the feet makes this feel more like a pick’em.

I’m a big fan of Masvidal’s style, as I see him having more paths to victory on paper. But if he can’t get this fight to the floor or force exchanges inside of the clinch, then I see Thompson’s footwork and countering prowess posing problems for the Cuban down the stretch. I will reluctantly side with Thompson, and I hope for a strong showing from two fighters who I enjoy dearly.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Thompson by decision

[New York Knight]

Johny Hendricks (18-7 MMA, 13-7 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’9″ Age: 34 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 69″
Last fight: TKO loss to Tim Boetsch (June 25, 2017)
Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ Division 1 national champion
+ 8 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous lefthand
^ Often doubles up
+ Improved kicks and knees
^ Typically punctuates off combos
+ Strong clinch and bodylock
^ Favors takedowns along the fence
+ Solid top game/control
– Has lost 3 of his last 4 fights



Paulo Costa (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’0″ Age: 26 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 72″
Last fight: TKO win over Oluwale Bambbose (June 3, 2017)
Camp: CJJF (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Fight middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Imposing pressure
^ Feints and stalks well
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Variates rhythm and looks
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Shows wrestling fundamentals
+ Works well from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes



Summary:

Kicking off the main card in Madison Square Garden is a middleweight contest of potential consequence.

A former champion at 170 pounds who has spent 2017 as a middleweight, Johny Hendricks will be looking to right his ship after his recent struggles both inside the cage and on the scales.

Looking to steal the American’s spotlight is an undefeated Brazilian by the name of Paulo Costa. Formerly known as “Paulo Borrachinha,” Costa will be fighting outside of his home country for the first time.

Although the narrative of this matchup can feel like a possible changing of the guard in some ways, Hendricks will still be a legitimate step up in competition for the young Brazilian.

An accoladed wrestler who stormed onto the scene with a quick stoppage of Amir Sadollah at UFC 101, Hendricks has since come a long way.

Gaining more confidence and traction in his striking as he accrued experience, Hendricks’ game blossomed after decimating Jon Fitch in the opening frame with a vicious lefthand. Despite that weapon serving him well for years to come, we have mysteriously not seen it’s vaunted power in quite some time.

Nonetheless, Hendricks has since added to his game since working with striking coach Steven Wright.

As we have seen in the subsequent years, Hendricks will now flow more freely with his hooks and uppercuts, punctuating his combinations with leg kicks or knees when appropriate. Since moving to middleweight, we have seen a slight rebirth in these attributes – attributes that suffered toward the end of his welterweight run.

Nevertheless, Hendricks will need to respect what is coming back at him, and he will be playing with fire anytime he exchanges with his heavy-hitting opponent.

Despite starting off his martial arts experience in the grappling art of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Costa is a striker in every sense of the word.

A natural pressure-fighter, Costa will smartly work behind feints while stalking his prey.

Whether he is feint-baiting his opponents into crushing check-hooks and body kicks, or crashing the distance to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian seems to be genuinely comfortable inside of exchanges.

Even when caught clean, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s shots as he comes right back in their face –– but with an adjusted and varied rhythm.

For me, it is an impressive feat to see a young fighter who otherwise seems like a bully, using subtle tactics like rhythm changes to avoid predictability with strikes.

Where this fight gets even more intriguing is when looking at the potential of grappling exchanges.

Considering that there is next to no footage of Costa on his back, this could be an area that Hendricks might try to exploit. An alum of Ohio State, I would not be surprised to see Hendricks dust off his Division I wrestling chops and attempt to take down the Brazilian.

Hendricks, who was a well-schooled grappler under the tutelage of Marc Laimon, has a lot to offer from topside in the form of submissions, strikes and positional rides. However, if the bigger man in Costa ends up in dominant positions, then Hendricks may get more than he bargains for given that the Brazilian is no slouch from topside.

Demonstrating an ability to transition and ride while striking, Costa appears to maintain a good sense of positional IQ and awareness. Still, he will need to pick his battles wisely since I give the on-paper edge to Hendricks in regards to grappling.

Although I hate to admit it, it is not hard to see why the oddsmakers have opened Costa as a favorite over the former champion.

Hendricks has lost three of four fights in the octagon, with arguably the same ratio of defeats taking place on the scale. Unless Hendricks can find the form he has spent the past couple of years searching for, then this may get worse before it ever gets better.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Costa inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Mixed Martial Analyst Prelimary card predictions


Joseph Duffy def. James Vick

Walt Harris def. Mark Godbeer

Ion Cutelaba def. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Randy Brown def. Mickey Gall

Curtis Blaydes def. Aleksei Oleinik

Ovince Saint Preux def. Corey Anderson

Ricardo Ramos def. Aiemann Zahabi



Props worth looking at:

Michael Bisping – inside the distance: +280 (0.5 unit)

Pulo Costa – inside the distance: -155 (1.5 units)


Straight plays:

Michael Bisping -105 (1 unit)


Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

Paulo Costa -255
Walt Harris -400


Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall
Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Joseph Duffy vs. James Vick
Ricardo Ramos vs. Aiemann Zahabi



DraftKings recommendations

Paulo Costa: $8,900
Walt Harris: $8,800
Aiemann Zahabi: $8,700
Cody Garbrandt: $8,300
Machael Bisping: $8,100
Rose Namajunas: $7,000

Roster total: $49,800


Summary:

My fantasy MMA recommendations are officially back, which means that I will be sharing a DraftKings lineup for each UFC fight card, briefly expanding on the potential value of my picks.

Starting from the top, we have Paulo Costa, who comes in with a price tag of $8,900 and an APPG (average points per game) of 101.3. As one of the recommended parlay pieces, Costa is one of my most confident picks on the card for the reasons stated in the breakdown above. Costa will likely be in a lot of lineups, but he looks to be money in what is a potential mismatch of size and current standing.

Second up on the roster is Walt Harris, who comes in at a price of $8,800 and an APPG of 33.6. Despite being fresh off a last-minute loss to Fabricio Werdum, I like Harris – in what was his original matchup – to come up big here. Mark Godbeer is a hard-hitting fighter and gem of a human being, but I see Harris’ speed and southpaw stylings producing a high-scoring finish.

The next roster selection involves a fighter from my avoid list as I have Aiemann Zahabi. Despite officially siding with Ricardo Ramos, this is a close fight no matter how you cut it.

Ramos may be the more volatile finisher, but Zahabi is the more process-driven fighter, who also has a knack for scoring knockdowns and takedowns. And for the price of $8,700 (65 APPG), he will likely be an unpopular choice that can score you some surprising points.

Next up on the docket is Cody Garbrandt, who comes in with a price tag of $8,300 and an APPG of 100.3.

As stated in the breakdown above, I believe that Garbrandt has a higher propensity to find the finish over Dillashaw, whose aggressive shifting style tends to open him up for damage in both victory and defeat. Couple that with the fact that Garbrandt has dropped or stopped all of his career opponents, and I suspect that the champion could score you some serious points over a five-round affair.

In my next roster selection, I elected to go with another title fight participant in Michael Bisping.

One of my more confident picks of the card, I feel that Bisping, for the reasons stated in the breakdown above, is the livelier threat who has more going his way on paper. For me, this seems like another mismatch of size and current standing, as I see Bisping getting a stoppage to earn his price tag of $8,100.

Lastly, I have Rose Namajunas, who comes in at the low price of $7,000 (85 APPG). Even though I officially picked Jedrzejczyk to win, the betting line here feels off and inflated.

Fortunately for DraftKings players, that makes Namajunas – a live underdog and participant in a five-round fight – the lowest priced fighter on the entire roster. Jedrzejczyk’s pace and pressure will likely make the difference in this matchup, but the champion has been sat down by straight punches or taken down in her last few fights. Even if Namajunas comes up short on the scorecards, she will likely rack up more points than any other loser on the roster and may be worth a shot.

[New York Knight]

All 24 fighters made weight without issue.

Of course ... NEVER FAILS


The UFC organization was notified today that the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) has informed Ion Cutelaba of a potential Anti-Doping Policy violation stemming from its investigation into voluntary disclosures by Cutelaba during an out-of-competition sample collections on October 18 and October 19, 2017.


USADA has provisionally suspended Cutelaba and his fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk has been cancelled from the November 4, 2017, UFC 217 fight card.

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 Underdog Picks | DraftKings Fantasy MMA
Stephie Haynes



Cody Garbrandt $8,300 / TJ Dillashaw $7,900

Cody Garbrandt is a fantastic boxer, there’s no two ways around it. Before he joined Team Alpha Male, he trained out of Team Strongstyle in Cleveland with Stipe Miocic and Brian Rogers under striking coach Joe Delguyd, where he refined his raw talent initially. Once he moved to TAM, he polished the rest of his game, which was showcased in his fight with Dominick Cruz, a fight he absolutely dominated. The weakest part of his skillset is his wrestling, an area Dillashaw excels in.

Dillashaw is also an accomplished striker with great footwork and once trained alongside Garbrandt at TAM. He left under a hailstorm of controversy a few years back, and these two competitors have had beef ever since. Dillashaw works angles well and also has knockout power, evidenced by six (T)KOs. He’s a strong wrestler with a great takedown game, which he’ll no doubt put into action Saturday night.

This is another instance where my gut is telling me Dillashaw might have what it takes to hand Grabrandt his first professional loss.

TJ Dillashaw via (T)KO


Stephen Thompson $8,600 / Jorge Masvidal $7,600

Stephen Thompson, the two-time title challenger to Tyron Woodley’s welterweight crown, is a tall, rangy kickboxer with an excellent striking skillset. He’s got power and great footwork, as demonstrated by seven (T)KO wins over a 16-fight professional career. The hole in his overall game is his wrestling, and his last two fights, both against Woodley, ended in lackluster decisions that didn’t see him victorious, which might prey on his confidence, especially because Masvidal and Woodley are teammates at ATT.

Masvidal has been in the sport for 14-years and has 44 professional fights under his belt. He has experienced continual evolution over the years, a feat rarely seen with longtime veterans of the sport. Masvidal has a traditional boxing style with a crisp jab and real power. His ground game is very underrated, likely because he does so well standing, so we don’t get to see it too often.

This will be a very close fight, especially because these two are so well matched, but I’ve got a feeling we’ll be seeing Masvidal spoiling Thompson’s night, as he’s done with so many others.

Jorge Masvidal via DEC


Joe Duffy $8,500 / James Vick $7,700

Joe Duffy is a great striker and submission artist. He’s got five wins by (T)KO and 10 wins via submission. He’s not an overly gifted wrestler, but once the fight is on the ground, he shines in the scrambles and is dangerous from both top and bottom position. He’ll be giving up five inches in height and three inches in reach to Vick, who will likely use that as an opportunity to land heavy kicks from the outside to soften up the Irishman for an inevitable war.

James Vick has had an impressive run in the UFC, losing only to Beneil Dariush in eight fights under the promotion’s banner. At 6’3”, he’s got the long man’s game down to a science. He’s a polished striker with a solid jab and a very good submission game of his own. He’s faced better quality competition than Duffy has, and that experience combined with his aggressive style and physical advantages should see him get the W.

James Vick via DEC


Aleksei Oleinik $8,200 / Curtis Blaydes $8,000

Aleksei Oleinik is an amazingly accomplished Ukranian grappler who has 45 submission wins over the course of a 65-fight career. Ten of those submissions are by the ultra-rare Ezekiel choke, and he actually holds the record for most Ezekiel chokes in MMA competition. Despite his sterling record, Oleinik is getting quite long in the tooth, and at the age of 40 with lots of shopwear, his cardio has begun exhibiting a serious deficit.

Curtis Blaydes will enter the Madison Square Garden Arena 14 years the junior of his opponent and with much less experience than the veteran Oleinik. That said, he packs quite a punch, having won all his fights by TKO, with the exception of a unanimous decision to Daniel Omielanczuk, who just so happens to be the last man to beat Oleinik. He’s a powerful wrestler with excellent takedowns and great cardio considering how big he is.

This is a risky pick, but I’m taking Blaydes here based on power, durability and cardio.

Curtis Blaydes via DEC

[New York Knight]

UFC 217: Preliminary Predictions
Kamikaze Overdrive



155lbs- James Vick (11-1-0) vs Joe Duffy (16-2-0)

In the headlining bout of the undercard, James “The Texicutioner” Vick goes head to head with Ireland’s own “Irish Joe” Joe Duffy. Vick has won back to back fights since suffering the first loss of his career- he scored a TKO win over Marco Polo Reyes in his last bout. Duffy is 4-1 inside the Octagon and is also riding a 2-fight winning streak, picking up wins over Mitch Clarke and Reza Madadi.

A very tall Lightweight, Vick is 6’3″ and will be 5 inches taller than Duffy to go along with a 3″ reach. Duffy is the younger fighter by a year.

Vick is developing a well-rounded attack. His striking is solid, incorporating his reach and movement to augment his ever-increasing volume game. He averages just over 4 SLpM compared to 3.38 SApM. The Texas-native is hittable and Beniel Dariush blasted him several times prior to scoring the stoppage. Vick is also a capable grappler, utilizing his long limbs to set up submissions. Unfortunately, he lacks a strong takedown to get his foe to the floor and he has been taken down on multiple occasions. Duffy struggled with the wrestling of Dustin Poirier in his only UFC loss, but he is a pretty solid grappler in his own right. On the feet, he is a smooth striker with good head movement and footwork. Leading with a sharp left jab and following with a power right, his combination striking is strong and he packs good power in his hands. Joe is coming off just his 5th career fight to go beyond the first frame- he is 3-2 in those bouts.

Vick will have the physical advantages and can operate both on the feet and the mat, but his glaring defensive issues will be his undoing. If he had a better wrestling attack, he could put Duffy on the floor, where he might have the edge. Look for “Irish Joe” to work inside the reach of Vick and outbox him, eventually cracking him on the chin

my prediction is Joe Duffy to defeat James Vick by TKO.


265lbs- Walt Harris (10-5-0) vs Mark Godbeer (12-3-0)

In a fight that was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 216, Walt “The Big Ticket” Harris looks to get back on track when he takes on Mark “The Hand of” Godbeer. Godbeer most recently defeated Daniel Spitz at UFC 209 to rebound from his debut loss to Justin Ledet. Harris stopped both Chase Sherman and Cyril Asker prior to suffering a 65-second submission loss to former Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum when he stepped up to the main card at UFC 216.

At 6’5″, Harris is an inch taller than Godbeer, but they will share the same 77″ reach. They are the same age.

This fight will most likely be decided on the feet with both men packing significant power. Harris has finished all 10 of his career wins via knockout- 9 in the opening round. Not to be outdone, Godbeer has stopped his foe via knockout in 9 of his 12 wins- only 3 in the opening round. Harris has looked increasingly more comfortable with his striking offense and the results have been devastating. Godbeer is a capable striker, but he is going to struggle with the speed and athleticism of Harris.

While Harris has far more opening round finishes, he appears to have the superior cardio which will play a role if this fight goes beyond the opening. Either way, look for him to routinely beat Godbeer to the punch and land the more impactful strikes when doing so. Despite the loss to Werdum, this fight should still play out as previously expected to

my prediction is Walt Harris to defeat Mark Godbeer by knockout.


205lbs- #6 Ovince Saint Preux (21-10-0) vs #7 Corey Anderson (10-3-0)

In a battle of top 10-ranked Light Heavyweights, former title-challenger Ovince Saint Preux takes on Corey “Overtime” Anderson. OSP has won back to back fights, submitting both Yushin Okami and Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Von Flue choke. Anderson is coming off a loss to Jimi Manuwa by knockout, but he has won 4 of his last 6 fights.

Saint-Preux is stepping in to replace Patrick Cummins on roughly 2-weeks notice. Both men are 6’3″, OSP has an inch longer reach and Anderson is the younger man by 6-years.

Anderson is coming off his second knockout loss and it is becoming apparent that his chin is a clear vulnerability. Nonetheless, he is still a capable striker utilizing a lot of movement and averaging an impressive 5.01 SLpM. A former NCAA D3 wrestler, “Overtime” does a good job of mixing in his wrestling having secured 25 takedowns over his combined 6 UFC wins. While OSP has proven himself to be a crafty submission fighter from top position, he also struggled when his opposition has looked to take him down. Most notably, Glover Teixeira beat him up on the floor prior to scoring the choke. OSP is an impressive athlete and is dangerous on the feet, but his striking tends to be a little stiff and can result in him slowing down in more demanding fights.

OSP’s short notice will not help his already questionable cardio. Additionally, he has had issues with wrestling and clinch heavy fighters which is a style that Anderson has employed in previous fights. Corey needs to utilize his movement and jab to close the distance and then force Ovince to a close quarters fight to both score points and tire him out. Anderson might be able to score a top position stoppage,

but my prediction is Corey Anderson to defeat Ovince Saint Preux by decision.


170lbs- Mickey Gall (4-0-0) vs Randy Brown (9-2-0)

In the Welterweight division, CM Punk slayer Mickey Gall returns to action to take on fellow Dana White talent search recruit Randy “Rude Boy” Brown. Brown is coming off of a decision loss to Belal Muhammad and is 3-2 inside the Octagon. Gall has yet to taste defeat in his brief pro career, submitting both the aforementioned Punk and Sage Northcutt in his last 2 UFC fights.

At 6’3″, Brown is 1″ taller, but he will have a 4″ reach advantage. Gall is the younger fighter by 2-years.

Brown comes into the fight having finished 2 of his 3 UFC wins- and has stopped 8 of his 9 opponents overall. He has some decent pop in his hands and is improving his use of his reach to keep his opponent on the outside. If his opponent closes the distance, look for “Rude Boy” to clinch up and employ damaging elbow and knee strikes. A BJJ purple belt, Brown has shown a willingness to work on the mat but has also go himself in some trouble on the floor. Gall has an excellent back take and has finished all 4 of his pro opponent’s by submission, all by rear-naked choke. He can do damage with strikes from top position, but we haven’t seen a lot of his vertical striking offense.

Brown has more experience than Gall and appears to have the more well-rounded skill set. That being said, Gall’s strength is Brown’s biggest area of vulnerability. Gall’s wrestling and BJJ games should be more than enough to exploit the holes in Brown’s defensive grappling

my prediction is Mickey Gall to defeat Randy Brown by submission.


265lbs- #9 Oleksiy Oliynyk (52-10-1) vs #12 Curtis Blaydes (7-1-0 1NC)

In the Heavyweight division, rising prospect Curtis “Razor” Blaydes takes on 63-fight veteran Oleksiy “The Boa Constrictor” Oliynyk. Blaydes is on a 3-fight undefeated streak, most recently picking up a decision victory Daniel Omielanczuk. Oliynyk is coming off a submission of the fast fading Travis Browne and is an impressive 13-1 over his last 14 fights.

Blaydes is 2 inches taller and should weigh roughly 20-25 pounds heavier. They have the same 80” reach and Blaydes is the younger fighter by 14-years.

The aging Oliynyk continues to find success on the strength of his submission game. He has finished an astounding 43 opponents via some form of tap out. Averaging 3.71 takedowns per fight, he has showcased some decent wrestling in his Octagon run. Against Browne, he survived the early exchanges and capitalized on Travis’s faltering cardio prior to securing the sub. On the feet, he has decent power but tends to be a little stiff with his technique. Blaydes has good power in his hands, but he primarily focuses his attack on his wrestling. He completed 15-takedowns over his first 3 fights but is coming off a victory spent almost entirely on the feet. Once he does get the fight to the floor he can do a lot of damage with his top position strikes.

Blades is the bigger man and better athlete. If he opts to take Oliynyk down, he has the tools to muffle his submission game- but it still brings him into Oleksiy’s area of strength. Look for the American to use his wrestling in reverse to force the striking exchanges early and if he is unable to score the stoppage, he may opt to wrestle later in the bout

my prediction is Curtis Blaydes to defeat Oleksiy Oliynyk by TKO

[New York Knight]

Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for preliminary card



Joseph Duffy vs. James Vick

Anton Tabuena: Good matchup, and it should be fun either way, but I think Duffy is just overall the better fighter here.

Joe Duffy by Decision.


Ryan Davies: Like Eddie said the 6’3” frame of Vick gives lightweights a very unfamiliar look that causes problems. Vick will use his long limbs to maintain the distance on Duffy and utilize his lethal clinch and knees when it comes to close quarters. That being said Duffy is war horse and won’t go out easy, he will pick up steam in the later rounds, but not enough to sway the judges. Vick failed his first test against a top 15 striker, this will be his chance to prove he is ready for upper echelon on the division.

Vick Split Decision


Eddie Mercado: Vick is the tallest opponent that Duffy has ever faced, and I think that will present some new challenges for Irish Joe.

James Vick by Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: What a fantastic fight. Vick has quietly built a pretty scary offensive boxing game, with a mean jab, hook and fadeaway counters. He's enormous, locks up on the head in scrambles, and keeps a great pace despite being so grotesquely huge. I think his primary weakness in this fight will actually be his size, however: he struggles to keep himself covered up, and Duffy is a ferocious body puncher. The interplay between body shots from Duffy and Vick's step knee and headlock game should be fascinating, but give me

Joseph Duffy by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight so much. Duffy is game, a slick boxer and has a smooth grappling and submission game. Vick is a massive and long lightweight that can crack, and his grappling is more of an overpowering game with great submission hunting instincts. Duffy will have trouble dealing with Vick’s range and output, and I worry about how he’ll fare both in the clinch as well as off his back. The more I think about it, the worse it looks.

James Vick by TKO.


Zane Simon: Big question here is, how well can Vick lock Duffy down with his clinch game inside. If he can do that, he may force this into being a range war where he’s the longer (if still less technical) man. However, if he can’t, his unwillingness to wrestle should give Duffy the perfect opportunities to work a crafty pocket boxing game built around slick body-head combos.

Joe Duffy via TKO, Round 2.



Staff picking Duffy: Bissell, Ram, Phil, Nick, Dayne, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Zane, Tim

Staff picking Vick: Eddie, Davies, Stephie, Victor

[New York Knight]

Mark Godbeer vs. Walt Harris

Ryan Davies: Walt Harris should collect more than a participation trophy in this match up. Godbeer can take a licking and keep on ticking, but Harris will provide him a licking that he won't soon forget! That sounded a lot tougher in my head.

Harris TKO rd 2


Phil Mackenzie: The basic dynamics haven't changed since last time. Harris is still bigger, more athletic and a cleaner striker.

Walt Harris by TKO, round 1.


Eddie Mercado: WARRRRRR WALTTTTTTTT!!!!

Walt Harris by KO in round 1.


Victor Rodriguez: (Shudders) Godbeer is tough as nails, but Harris is too fast, too strong, and good an athlete to not put him away. Walt puts him on his back and ruins him after a big overhand.

Walt Harris by TKO.


Zane Simon: Godbeer loves to dip his head when he throws, Harris has a mean counter uppercut game.

Walt Harris by KO, round 1.



Staff picking Godbeer: Bissell, Ram

Staff picking Harris: Phil, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Tim

[New York Knight]

Corey Anderson vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Ryan Davies: These 2 top 10 light heavyweights are coming off of main event performances with very different outcomes. OSP defeated former title challenger Yushin Okami with his third Von Flue (soon to be St.Preux, sorry Livewire) choke. While Anderson came up short against Jimmi Manuwa. Anderson has trouble with opponents he can’t outwrestle, while OSP doesn’t have the collegiate wrestling credentials, his freak athleticism will help him avoid going to the ground. On the feet Anderson is evolving into a technically proficient striker, but OSP’s unorthodox, freewheeling style will find holes in Anderson’s striking defense to pick up another impressive knockout.

OSP TKO 2nd


Phil Mackenzie: This division is depressing. Anderson is broadly functional but lacks both power and focus. OSP is a mess. I suppose OSP makes more sense as a pick- he's beaten better opponents, and is tougher and more dynamic. But I just don't like his style. Give me jabs, leg kicks and takedowns over counterpunches and Von Flues in a pretty underwhelming fight.

Corey Anderson by unanimous decision.


Eddie Mercado: This is gon get ugly and I don’t care who wins.

OSP, I guess, by sloppy decision.


Victor Rodriguez: OSP is weird. His strikes come from strange angles, his timing is off-beat and his movement is janky. Anderson’s gonna have a hard time trying to figure him out and will undoubtedly get caught with something coming in for takedowns. Corey’s got great top control and makes smart striking choices on the ground, but if OSP ends up on top he’s far more efficient. It’s far likelier that Anderson gets to top position first, but his gas tank won’t hold up as well here. OSP will eventually get either back up to his feet or on top, and do damage from there.

Ovince St Preux by TKO.


Zane Simon: I’m just echoing Phil here. OSP’s game is basically to lose fights until he wins them, if he wins them. Anderson is much more a guy who wins fights right up until he loses them. I’ll take the guy who’s out there winning rounds over the guy who has a funky knack for weird finishes. But not happily.

Corey Anderson via decision.



Staff picking Anderson: Ram, Phil, Dayne, Fraser, Stephie, Zane

Staff picking OSP: Bissell, Nick, Davies, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Victor, Tim

[New York Knight]

Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall

Anton Tabuena: Both have looked pretty good in their short UFC careers, and both are still likely improving a lot. It’s a tough pick, but at the end of the day, one guy has been facing far better competition.

Randy Brown by Decision.


Ryan Davies: I am in the minority that see elite potential in the polarizing prospect that is Mickey Gall. It’s true he has not taken on the stiffest of competition, but in his 3 UFC outings he has shown a effortless fluidity of movement in his grappling exchanges and a high fight IQ, staying out of brawling exchanges and fighting to his strengths. Brown is also a intriguing talent with creative and dynamic strikes, but his inability to stop a takedown has prevented him from taking the next step in his career. Gall will play it smart and get this fight to the ground whenever the opportunity presents itself. The submission may come late, but my money would be on a convincing decision.

Gall Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Gall is a talent, but really has shown next to nothing apart from being talented in his MMA career thus far because the people he's beaten are just so bad. Brown is athletic and skilled, and has just been fighting much tougher competition. Gall seems to be a natural wrestler, a skillset that continues to give Brown issues- he still seems to be in the process of finding a stable game. Brown is a good striker and reasonably dynamic everywhere, and I can't stress enough the difference between fighting Belal Remember The Name Muhammad and fighting Sage Northcutt.

Randy Brown by submission, round 3.


Fraser Coffeen: Listen, if Gall can dominate CM Punk, then realistically, who can stop him?

Mickey Gall, decision


Victor Rodriguez: Brown’s gonna have to learn early, often and hard to establish the pace here, and it just feels like Gall’s wrestling game and top pressure will be too much. Mickey hits him with the flypaper approach and tries to chain submissions together, but wins the fight via control and ground strikes leading to unsuccessful submission attempts.

Mickey Gall by decision.


Zane Simon: If Brown makes it deep into round 2, he likely wins this fight. Gall is a terribly wooden striker and looked like he was sucking air pretty badly against Northcutt when he dropped him. He is, however, also a fantastically technical wrestle-grappler who chains his shots well and does a great job in the ride and taking the back. I can just see Brown getting taken down early too easily and submitted as he tries to scramble. Still, if he survives, he probably wins.

Mickey Gall via submission, Round 1.



Staff picking Brown: Phil, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton

Staff picking Gall: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Davies, Fraser, Stephie, Vick, Zane, Tim

[New York Knight]

Curtis Blaydes vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk

Ryan Davies: This match up of high level grapplers will be a passing of the guard of sorts. 26 year old Blaydes will not throw anything at the 40 year old Oliynyk that he has not seen before. However Blaydes does posses the power, explosiveness and stamina to take over this fight with his wrestling while avoiding Oliynyk’s unconventional choke attempts.

Blaydes Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Blaydes is clearly not learning striking as fast as people hoped, and he looked dreadfully wooden on the feet in his last fight. However, I'm not a big believer in Oliynyk's gas tank, and if Blaydes doesn't walk his way into a weird choke from bottom, then his youth and athleticism just wears Oliynyk down over time. I think he'll be cautious, but will essentially look to replicate what Omielańczuk did.

Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I don’t like this. Blaydes can hurt people, man. Oliynyk ate a lot of damage to rally back against Browne, and is a super legit threat no matter what position he’s in. I just don’t think he’ll make it long as a damage sponge with Blaydes being a harder hitter with really good wrestling. This is basically shades of Godbeer/Harris, only Oliynyk has more tools to win and is a smarter fighter. That said, I still don’t like the odds for Oliynyk here.

Curtis Blaydes by TKO, round 2.


Zane Simon: Sure, Blaydes could jump on top of Oliynyk and get himself choked in that way that only Oliynyk opponents seem to get themselves choked, but my guess is that he’s just too much of a physical hulk for that. I feel like Blaydes may have broken his wrestling game a little in learning how to strike, so I think this will just be 3 rounds of wall-n-maul, as Oliynyk wears out quickly and Blaydes stifles him.

Curtis Blaydes by decision.



Staff picking Blaydes: Phil, Nick, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Stephie, Victor, Zane

Staff picking Oliynyk: Bissell, Ram, Dayne, Eddie, Fraser, Tim

[New York Knight]

Ricardo Ramos vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Anton Tabuena: Unfortunately, this might be the only time Firas celebrates tonight.

Aiemann Zahabi by decision.


Ryan Davies: Both of these highly regarded prospects eked out controversial decisions in their debuts. Now they will look to pick up their second win in a more impressive manor. Zahabi, like the majority of Tri Star fighters,is a master of controlling the distance in the striking department. Ramos has shown flashes of brilliance on the feet, but Zahbi will have a noticeable technical striking edge. Ramos does his best work on the mat, however getting Zahabi down will be a bridge too far for the lanky 22 year old. Even if it does go to the ground Aiemann’s many years of coaching up from big brother Firas will have him more than ready to deal with the youngsters submission attempts.

Zahabi Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Zahabi feels like a fighter who is incredibly well-coached but is already visibly bumping up against the limits of his athleticism, which don't appear to be very high. He hurt Vieira in his last fight by being better at drawing the shorter line between two points with his punches, but he also got hit quite a lot. Ramos is bigger, and the less technical but the more impactful striker, and is an aggressive, powerful grappler.

Ricardo Ramos by unanimous decision


Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight so much. Zahabi’s been training with top-level guys for years now and his brother’s a genius coach. Ramos is tough and probably a more complete athlete, but Zahabi has more tools to win.

Aiemann Zahabi by decision.


Zane Simon: Zahabi’s defensive instincts don’t seem very sound yet. Which means he has to rely on consistent pressuring or risk getting overwhelmed by his opponent’s offense. That leads nicely into Ramos’ dynamic countering game.

Ricardo Ramos by TKO, Round 2.



Staff picking Ramos: Dayne, Phil, Zane

Staff picking Zahabi: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Davies, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Tim

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for main card



Michael Bisping vs. Georges St-Pierre

Anton Tabuena: So St-Pierre has been training every day since his layoff, thinks he’s the “best” GSP ever, and wouldn’t come back if he wasn’t. He says he has kept up with the sport and even actually had time to improve instead of just getting in fight shape and competing constantly. I really wish that was all true, but it’s just not logical to believe all that without any evidence. Ring rust is real, and 4 years away from the sport is going to be a real hurdle, especially in the opening rounds. St-Pierre is now 36-years-old, and I find it hard to believe that his timing won’t be affected, let alone his durability, endurance, explosiveness and skills.

If he does come back as the same guy (or even slightly better, which I highly doubt), stylistically, Bisping is also a very bad matcup for him. He’s much bigger, hard to take down, and even harder to keep down. He conceivably also has better striking and endurance than St-Pierre. If GSP can’t dictate where this fight takes place, or at least constantly have a legitimate takedown threat that disrupts Bisping’s striking game, his game will be more limited and he will struggle. For him to win, St-Pierre will not only have to beat a bigger and stronger guy who has the style to give him a lot of issues, he will also have to quickly shake off the rust and beat father time as well. I would love to see that storybook type of comeback, and I wish he proves me wrong to get back on top of the sport as a two-division champion. But MMA is unforgiving, and I expect a lot of people to once again be sad that their hero got old.

Michael Bisping by TKO.


Mookie Alexander: Full disclosure - I spent all of Thursday traveling cross-country, so I’m pretty tired and this will be my only predictions contribution for the week. Georges St-Pierre hasn’t fought since 2013. He tore his ACL the very next year. I cannot imagine a rational thinking person trying to argue GSP is going to be “better than ever” or whatever nonsense tagline has been used to promote the fight. Michael Bisping is older than GSP but he’s both an actual middleweight and has fought eight times since GSP’s last bout. Frankly speaking, even if Bisping knocks GSP out cold in 5 seconds, I value his Rockhold KO over both the Anderson Silva win and if he were to beat St-Pierre. Skillwise, GSP is miles ahead of Bisping, but I just cannot convince myself that he won’t look like a shell of his former self, and that’s what it boils down to. There’s also a part of me that doesn’t want GSP to win because I absolutely do not want to see him get murked by Robert Wittaker. This fight might end up being a tad disappointing in terms of excitement, but I’ve been wrong many many times before.

Michael Bisping by unanimous decision.


Ryan Davies: Tim Kennedy laid out the blueprint to beating Bisping and GSP mixes up his strikes and takedowns far better than Kennedy. If GSP is 80 percent of the fighter that retired in 2013 he will keep Bisping guessing and place him on the mat numerous times.

GSP Unanimous Decision


Eddie Mercado: Bisping won a BS decision over Anderson Silva. He won a BS decision over Dan Henderson. Why should I expect anything other than a BS decision over another MMA great? GSP will win the fight but lose the MMA match. Is paper GOAT a thing? Michael Bisping by BS decision. Actually, I just can’t do it. I refuse to pick Bisping over GSP.

GSP by Unanimous Decision!


Fraser Coffeen: In anticipation of this fight, I watched every Michael Bisping fight. Yep, all of them. And even with all that video, he’s a tough fighter to pin down. As Ryan mentioned above, the Kennedy fight is a real concern for any Bisping fans here - that’s a performance that GSP could very much emulate in this fight. The questions is just one of where GSP is these days. I think a prime GSP scores the takedowns and wins this, despite the size difference. But I’m still feeling the sting of last weekend’s Lyoto fight. Things like that and Bisping/Silva are good reminders that time is a serious factor and the guy fighting past his prime is not the same as he once was.

And so, sadly, Bisping, decision


Ram Gilboa: Michael Bisping vs Georges St. Pierre. True, if they met in 2013, you had to wonder what’s the point. But now, 4 years later, magically, you don’t seem to care enough about this fight to do that.

Georges St. Pierre is an all-time great. Best of all-time when he took a break four years ago, and now trailing after Johnson, if you ask me. I probably wouldn’t have advised him to come back now; but if he wants to, who am I to say something anyway. But it is almost obvious who St. Pierre should get, right? Especially since this can be a one-off: Anyone except Michael Bisping. It could have been Anderson Silva, for us nostalgic folks, or Nick Diaz - hell, A Diaz. If GSP plans to stick around, I can even see reason in squaring up again against Hendricks, and play on the different trajectories they went on since then. Even McGregor would have even been reasonable, at least our age kind of reasonable.

So they gave him Bisping. Yeah, I don’t know. It probably comes down to, as mentioned, the current shape GSP is in. The timing on his doubles has always been impeccable, and I think he’ll get that timing back in the cage soon enough. But to finish the shots his fast-twitch muscles will still have to perform well enough, and his knees will still have to sustain the motion long enough, and through Bisping’s resistance and weight. And that’s the second thing - against bigger opponents, Wrestling is probably the most difficult per pound-against; more than striking, where you can use much more movement, or grappling, where you can use the ground more, and a little more savvy. So to wrestle a bigger fella constantly for 5 rounds - when was the last time GSP finished a fight? - should prove extremely taxing on his stamina. I think GSP will keep this one standing a lot more than a lot of people think; while keeping the takedown threat implied, for as long as he can, to get Bisping’s hands a bit down, and him a bit thinking. And while Bisping will think, as Hemingway wrote, GSP will hit him. (Hemingway didn’t specifically mention GSP). I don’t see wrestling and ground and pound as the main game-plan for St. Pierre for the first two rounds at-least. As for Bisping, he pretty much got here by out-lasting and out-hustling, not out-gunning. He’s the last man standing from the old guard, and when the dust settled, he had a belt wrapped around his waist. But I think no more after tomorrow night.

Georges St. Pierre by a close decision.


Victor Rodriguez: I love both fighters, but the fact that they’re facing each other is utter garbage. GSP spends four years on the shelf to cut the line in a division he never fought in? If he at least came back to fight Woodley for the belt he never lost, I’d be a lot less sour about this. Meh. I can’t count on a guy that hasn’t been fighting during that time. I get that he’s never stopped training seriously, but Bisping’s only gotten better with time. He can shuck off takedowns, overpower with pressure and his counter game and stun Georges with an uppercut or two. GSP still presents some problems with his speed and athleticism, but will be undersized and can be outboxed. Bisping is still hittable, and might fall for GSP’s shenanigans and eat a high kick. Still gotta go with the more reliable fighter here.

Michael Bisping by decision.


Zane Simon: As many others have said, I just can’t trust where GSP is at. Especially can’t trust that he’ll have the cardio at 185 to hit takedowns for 5 rounds on a bigger fighter.

Michael Bisping by decision.



Staff picking Bisping: Anton, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Zane

Staff picking GSP: Ram, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Davies, Phil, Tim

[New York Knight]

Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw

Anton Tabuena: Even if we ignore the team drama that surrounds this contest, this is still a really intriguing match up stylistically. On paper, it seems like Garbrandt is faster, has better hands and bigger power, while Dillashaw has more diversity, better footwork, better kicks, and possibly a better judge of distance as well. To add to those clash in styles, both men are very familiar with what each other brings to the table, making it a possible x-factor that bridges the gap in some of these advantages. All in all, those things make this a bout that really piques my interest.

Cruz is a master of footwork, movement and distance, and Garbrandt passed that test with flying colors. TJ is more dangerous offensively than Cruz, but this makes me believe that when others struggle with TJ’s “unorthodox” style and movement, Cody wouldn’t -- especially with the familiarity they have. Couple that with a speed and power advantage, this is why I am leaning towards the champ keeping his belt. I definitely could be wrong, and x-factors like emotion and knowing each other’s tendencies could swing it either way, but I think it will be

Cody Garbrandt by TKO.


Ryan Davies: T.J is the superior striker. Superior footwork, superior timing and superior fight IQ. Garbrandt will get frustrated early when he doesn’t land clean and headhunt the rest of the fight losing every round.

Dillashaw Unanimous Decision


Eddie Mercado: Garbrandt’s recent surgery could be a thing here, but until I see him lose, I can’t really pick against him.

Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision.


Fraser Coffeen: Great fight here with so much to love about it. I’m a big fan of TJ’s style in there - it’s a style I tend to favor, while Cody seems more of the pure KO artist. Those KO type fighters are always a bit tough to predict in my eyes. Like the first Chuck/Randy fight, it feels like there’s always a path to beating this style of fighter if you can find it. My gut instinct is that Dillashaw can indeed find it, using his movement, volume, and game planning to score the points. What holds me back somewhat is that I could have written that exact same sentence about Dominick Cruz, and he did not find any success. So what does Dillashaw have that Cruz doesn’t? Answer: the knowledge of Garbrandt and the drive. Is that enough to turn the tide? I’m going to say it is.

TJ Dillashaw, decision


Ram Gilboa: It’s a five rounds fight, that’ll play out on the feet. Two very good strikers, I’ll go with the puncher.

Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 2


Victor Rodriguez: I know that MMAth is for suckers and rubes, but if Cruz couldn’t hurt Cody consistently, how can TJ? Garbrandt not only showed off his boxing skills, but his wrestling was on point and his attacks on the ground were good. We might see Dillashaw on his back eating a few elbows, which would be impressive. I’m not sure that TJ has the answers in his toolkit to deal with the range, length, pressure, and counters that Garbrandt has. The king stays king.

Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 5.


Zane Simon: Garbrandt can match Dillashaw for speed and footwork, and should be able to scramble with him on the mat. Dillashaw holds the edge in volume striking, but Garbrandt is more capable fighting going forwards and backwards, while Dillashaw has trouble off his back foot. If Dillashaw has to keep coming forward, then he likely has to keep giving Garbrandt chances to counter him and land the better shots each round.

Cody Garbrandt by decision.



Staff picking Garbrandt: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Zane, Tim

Staff picking Dillashaw: Davies, Fraser