New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

[SPX]

I jumped on a lot of these:

Martin Kampmann: 2u @ -170 and thinking about going bigger
Matt Serra: 1.75u @ -165
Keith Jardine: 1u @ +130
Jon Jones: 2u @ -200

What do you guys think?

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

That Wandy line is a lot higher than I thought it would be

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

A bit of analysis:

Martin Kampmann: 2u @ -170

Thinking about going bigger on this one, but I need to do more research on Volkmann. From what I've seen though, I think Kampmann will be able to hold his own in the grappling department and will definitely be able to outclass Volkman on the feet. Frankly, after seeing Volkmann's performance against Thiago--as spirited as it was--I am surprised he is not more of an underdog. I guess Kampmann's loss to Daley knocked him down a peg or two but I think this works out for us. I know Volkmann is 9-1, but who has he fought? The only guy I've ever heard of he lost to. Not only that, but most of wins are by submission and Kampmann has never been submitted.


Matt Serra: 1.75u @ -165

You could probably say that this fight is against two guys who are both in the twilight of their careers, but in my opinion Serra has a lot more life in him than Trigg does. On the feet, it's probably pretty even. Trigg may be somewhat better technically, but Serra has more power and has a better chance of finishing it with one punch. On the ground, Serra has always had good defensive BJJ and I doubt Trigg will be able to LnP him the way Hughes did.


Keith Jardine: 1u @ +130

Jardine's the underdog here? For real? After getting crushed by Silva, I can see why bettors may lack confidence and I admit that my confidence has somewhat been shaken as well. But I'm not sure how much Bader's biggest strength--his wrestling--will help him here. Jardine is very good about getting back to his feet once taken down, so LnP from Bader is unlikely, though possible I suppose. Considering Jardine's weak chin, I think Bader's best chance is that big right hand of his. If he can't land it though, I think Jardine takes this fight and is definitely worth a play here.


Jon Jones: 2u @ -200

He's Jon Jones.


. . . thoughts?

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

That Wandy line is a lot higher than I thought it would be

I agree. Honestly, I was hoping he would be the dog.

I know this is going to piss zY off but as it is I dropped .5u on Bisping. For the record, I hope I lose this one, though.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I just put my soul on Wandy.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I just put my soul on Wandy.

Does that translate into anything in financial terms?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I just put my soul on Wandy.

Does that translate into anything in financial terms?

185 to win 100. I cant bet it now, but week of event Ill lock it in fo sho.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Oh yeah, that's right, you always bet locally.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

That Kos/Thiago line is kind of weird. I really think Kos will win, but there is some serious value in Thiago. I mean, he KO'd Kos already. I know it was kind of a flash Ko, but it was still a win for him. That guy is getting no repect in this one.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

It's because of this. . .

http://www.fightlinker.com/why-paulo-thiago-sucks.mma

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

^^wow horrible "article".

Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

^^wow horrible "article".

Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.

Maybe so, but there was one legit point the writer made:

"Some people have it right: a fight isn’t over if there’s a knock down. Someone got floored, big deal."

All too often I have seen a trigger-happy ref jump in just because someone got knocked down. And yeah, I know all the shit about how Kos's eyes rolled back into his head or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that he was conscious and recovering by the time Thiago rushed him and the ref stopped the fight early. I have almost no doubt--maybe 5% at most--that Kos would've recovered and won that fight if the ref hadn't jumped in when he did.

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

^^wow horrible "article".

Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.

Maybe so, but there was one legit point the writer made:

"Some people have it right: a fight isn’t over if there’s a knock down. Someone got floored, big deal."

All too often I have seen a trigger-happy ref jump in just because someone got knocked down. And yeah, I know all the shit about how Kos's eyes rolled back into his head or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that he was conscious and recovering by the time Thiago rushed him and the ref stopped the fight early. I have almost no doubt--maybe 5% at most--that Kos would've recovered and won that fight if the ref hadn't jumped in when he did.

Conscious and recovering ??? You got to be kidding SPX .Rewatch that fight .Kos was hit with a perfect undercut and a perfect hook to the side of the head either punch would have KO'd him. Thiago never "rushed" Kos after those punches because he knew the fight was over .He dropped his hands and WALKED to Kos waiting for the ref to step in which he did. Had thiago actually rushed Kos ala Dan Hederson in the Bisping fight he would have landed minimum 3 punches to his face because KOS hadnt even yet put his hands up when the ref stopped the fight because he was sitting there with his eyes rolled back in his head.

This was a great stoppage. Had Thiago rushed him and blasted him 5 more times and then the ref stop it people would have complained Kos took unnecessary punishent

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

^^wow horrible "article".

Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.

I agree 100%


Usually when someone gets KTFO they are a little timid when fighting a rematch because they dont want to get KO again

I think Kos wins but -500 is beyond stupid

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Conscious and recovering ??? You got to be kidding SPX .Rewatch that fight .Kos was hit with a perfect undercut and a perfect hook to the side of the head either punch would have KO'd him. Thiago never "rushed" Kos after those punches because he knew the fight was over .He dropped his hands and WALKED to Kos waiting for the ref to step in which he did. Had thiago actually rushed Kos ala Dan Hederson in the Bisping fight he would have landed minimum 3 punches to his face because KOS hadnt even yet put his hands up when the ref stopped the fight because he was sitting there with his eyes rolled back in his head.

This was a great stoppage. Had Thiago rushed him and blasted him 5 more times and then the ref stop it people would have complained Kos took unnecessary punishent

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Very bad stoppage, in my opinion. Maybe it was one of those legendary "flash KOs" but the fact of the matter is that Kos immediately was back to a conscious state. He may have been dazed and maybe even have had to take a few shots before he recovered, but I fully believe that if the fight had gone on then he would've won. Consider the Nog/Herring fight. Plenty of refs would've stopped that shit after the head kick, but Nog recovered.

Mark my words: Kos will beat Thiago decisively. Am I confident enough to bet him at -500? No. I don't have the bankroll for that. I'd take him at -300 though and that's about as high as I go for most anyone except a select few like Fedor.