New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

[zY|]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I too believe that the stoppage was awful, but that doesn't change the fact that Koscheck got his fucking shit pushed in by Thiago. That article hating on Thiago doesn't bother taking into account that he gameplanned all over Kos' ass. He watched tape and planned out his opening and capitalized on it.

[Natural Born Thriller]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

That Kos/Thiago line is kind of weird. I really think Kos will win, but there is some serious value in Thiago. I mean, he KO'd Kos already. I know it was kind of a flash Ko, but it was still a win for him. That guy is getting no repect in this one.

same with maynard/diaz. diaz tapped him on tuf.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

same with maynard/diaz. diaz tapped him on tuf.

I've got 3u on Maynard. He's improved a lot since the show, while Diaz has looked kind of lackluster.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Hope you guys are paying attention!

Marquardt/Sonnen and Maia/Miller just went up.

I put 4u on Nate on 3u on Maia.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I know Rothwell is sort of a journeyman, but what has Cro Cop done lately to be the favorite in that fight?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I have stevenson, Maia, and Marquardt... all for 5u. I missed the opening lines and had to pay more. I got Stevenson @ -295, Maia @ -310, and Nate @-275

I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard. Maynard has improved his striking, but he has not fought anyone that could really threaten him with subs. The only submission threat he has fought so far was Clementi... in that fight, Clementi was having some success compromising his base with the half guard. Maynard will probably win by keeping it standing, but Diaz has real value IMO. Maynard is still untested against the one style of fighter that he has lost to...

[Mr. IWS]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard.

My buddy who posts here, (Natural Born Thriller) loves Diaz in this fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I honestly think Diaz is going to get owned in this fight. Maybe not owned owned--like, thoroughly embarassed--but I don't think he's really going to be able to mount much of an offense. I think that the Maynard that fought Diaz on TUF is a different fighter from the Maynard of today. I think that he's going to be able to use his strength and wrestling skills to control Diaz and will be able to power out of any sub attempts.

Reference Diaz/Guida and Diaz/Stevenson. I expect this fight to look KIND OF like those two.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Guida has a lot more energy than Maynard, basically allowed him to just lean on him the entire time. Stevenson is a grappler, he is just better than Nate, at bjj and wrestling. Maynard is still pretty much a wrestler on the mat. Joe could survive or beat someone without being on top. Maynard, if and when he faces a better wrestler, he will lose.

That said, I don't think Diaz is that great, and Maynard should win. But I would not be surprised to see him get triangled or guillotined- those are Diaz's go to subs, and it is pretty tough to power out of either of them. I think Maynard will try to keep it standing, where he should have an advantage.

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I know Rothwell is sort of a journeyman, but what has Cro Cop done lately to be the favorite in that fight?

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.

[SPX]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.

I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.

I've had some successes in this realm:

Pellegrino over Neer
Smith over Le
Sakara over Leites
Grove over Rosholt
Shogun over Machida (almost)

I almost never think the dog is going to win. A couple of exceptions are a few guys I got at very light underdog odds, like Dos Anjos over Emerson and Belcher over Goveia, both of whom ended up the favorites before it was over with.

The good thing about underdogs is that if you pick your shots then you can lose more than you win and still show a profit.

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

Name is about it .

I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers

I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.

I think he has vaule at -170 and will probably be on him in this fight

[Luke]

Re: New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!

I almost never think the dog is going to win

You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight

I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time