UFC Fight Night 20

[The HOFF]

Date: Jan 11, 2010
Location: Fairfax, Va.
Venue: Patriot Center on George Mason University campus
Broadcast: Spike TV

MAIN CARD

* Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard
* Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero
* Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson
* Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah

PRELIMINARY CARD

* Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva
* Jesse Lennox vs. Rick Story
* Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares
* Mike Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald
* Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos
* Gerald Harris vs. Mike Massenzio
* Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Nate Diaz +270
Gray Maynard -330

Tom Lawlor +200
Aaron Simpspn -240

Evan Dunham +215
Efrain Escudero -255

Brad Blackburn +135
Amir Sadollah -155

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I like Dos Anjos/Bradley... hope Dos Anjos comes in at a reasonable price.

Diaz definately has value. Maynard has not faced a submission guy yet.

[The HOFF]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Diaz definately has value. Maynard has not faced a submission guy yet.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure Nate submitted him on TUF. Maynard looked sub-par against Huerta. I think Diaz will outstrike him on the feet. Maynard will have to take him down. Then Diaz will have the ground game advantage with subs.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Maynard has definately shown improvement, but his big wins are against other wrestlers. I wouldn't be surprised if Maynard outstrikes Nate... but who would take Maynard at these odds?

I don't know if Diaz has the chops to sub him, but it is definately closer than the line. I might toss a unit down on Diaz.

[zY|]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Yeah it's either Nate or nothing for me.

No way I'm paying that much for a guy who lost by submission a few years ago to THE ACTUAL GUY HE'S FIGHTING.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Maynard looked sub-par against Huerta.

No, Huerta's just a bad ass.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I have 3u on Maynard at -300. I think it will be pretty even on the feet. Diaz may land more punches, but Maynard will hit with more power.

On the ground, I think Maynard's going to be strong enough to control Diaz and power out of any sub attempts that get thrown his way. For me, the real selling point for Maynard was watching how Diaz got handled by Guida and Stevenson. I understand that Maynard was subbed by Diaz the first time around, but Brock was subbed my Mir the first time around too, and we saw what happened in the second fight. Fighters improve and I think that Maynard has made a big enough leap since their first fight to warrant a bet even at -300.

[zY|]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Some good points, however...

He'll have Nate AND Nick meanmugging his ass. Do you think Gray can handle the pressure?

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Other bets I'm considering, but need to do more research on:

Escudero
Amir
Dos Anjos
Gerald Harris <---!!!!!!

I've also heard from others that Leben may be worth a small play, and maybe Rick Story, too. Gotta learn more about their opponents.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

Some good points, however...

He'll have Nate AND Nick meanmugging his ass. Do you think Gray can handle the pressure?

Hmm. . .

You have now caused doubt to enter my mind.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I was thinking about Efrain... convince me he is gonna beat Dunham.

I want to bet against Dunham, he looks exactly like a guy I wrestled with in high school, who I could not stand. I just want to see Evan get his stupid look-alike face smashed.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

I was thinking about Efrain... convince me he is gonna beat Dunham.

I want to bet against Dunham, he looks exactly like a guy I wrestled with in high school, who I could not stand. I just want to see Evan get his stupid look-alike face smashed.

Let me watch some fights on Dunham and review some stuff from Efrain and I'll give you some thoughts.

It's possible the value's been bet out of the line. That's my biggest concern. I know Efrain opened at -185. Where it's at now may be closer to what it really should be.

One of the biggest problems with guys recently out of TUF like Efrain is that there's not a whole lot of info to go on. I mean, he's only had two actual UFC fights, and really only one when talking about guys who are already established in the organization.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

What about Amir, I don't know Blackburn.

Gerald has been doing well, but hasnt really fought anyone. Massenzio is a bjj guy, wasn't gerald subbed by Amir on TUF? Gerald recently beat Nissen Osterneck, which should have a lot to say about this fight. Osterneck is a bjj guy too (but not as good as Massenzio)... did you see that fight?

If Gerald has evolved into a guy who uses his wrestling to keep it standing, I would be happier... but I don't know because I have not seen him fight.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 20

What about Amir, I don't know Blackburn.

I don't know Blackburn either . . . but I intend to get to know him!

I know he's 15-9, so he's not really setting the world on the fire. His biggest win is over Jay Hieron in the IFL, which is respectable.

Gerald has been doing well, but hasnt really fought anyone. Massenzio is a bjj guy, wasn't gerald subbed by Amir on TUF? Gerald recently beat Nissen Osterneck, which should have a lot to say about this fight. Osterneck is a bjj guy too (but not as good as Massenzio)... did you see that fight?

If Gerald has evolved into a guy who uses his wrestling to keep it standing, I would be happier... but I don't know because I have not seen him fight.

Gerald lost to Amir via a TKO that wasn't really a TKO. In fact, he jumped up and ran around screaming "I was not out!" Justifiably so, in my opinion . . . terrible stoppage.

I did see the Osterneck fight . . . all 46 seconds of it. He just went out there and KOd him. It was fast. My guess is that he had a new Playstation game at home that he really wanted to play.

The dude has great slams, stong wrestling, and true KO power. He only has two losses (both in '07): he was TKOd by Benji Radach and lost a split to some dude I've never heard of. He has never been subbed.

I need to go watch some Massenzio fights before I can do a more thorough analysis, but I do remember his fight with CB and I think that if CB can avoid his subs and TKO him then Gerald Harris can definitely do it.