UFN 20 Bets

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

At 108 I chose Ludwig... it was a stupid last second bet. To be honest, I don't know why I picked Ludwig. I think I got a little itchy having 4 favs and needed a dog. First time out, you know...

As far as Silva... I honestly didn't think much of Leben... thought he'd gas. Read a few things online that more or less confirmed that it was worth a small bet... Shoulda listened to you on the Escudero fight. .

I just think I need to do more research to get the feel of a good dog bet... just don't have the feel for it.

I actually got real gunshy betting dogs early on. The very first event I ever bet on (this was before I knew shit about betting on MMA) I think I bet on 4 underdogs and lost every one of them. Eventually I started floating bets out there on the dogs again and it's been working out for me the past several events. I think you're right, you have to get a feel for it. Watch fights and do your OWN analysis. Pay attention to what others are saying, but that's secondary.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

[triathlete]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

I haven't watched wrestling in YEARS, but it seems like it could be fun.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

You just got to pay attention, but even then, I mean damn, you can fuck it all up. Just look at me! I had Simpson and Gray winning dominantly in my head and they both squeaked by with split decisions.

As for betting dogs, I think a big part of it is avoiding hype and seeing what skills the dog has that he can use to exploit weaknesses in the favorite.

For instance, I saw that Dunham had solid striking, good power, and seemed good at using his reach. He also exhibited decent takedown defense against Aurelio and articles I read mentioned that his trainer, Shawn Tompkins, said that he was one of the few guys in the gym who could hang with Gray Maynard in the wrestling department. In regard to Efrain, he is largely untested. Sure, he beat Nover (who has been disappointing) and he beat Cole who has proven that he doesn't have the best chin in the world.

All this demonstrated to me that at +215 Dunham was being undervalued.

[Luke]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

[Luke]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

At 108 I chose Ludwig... it was a stupid last second bet. To be honest, I don't know why I picked Ludwig. I think I got a little itchy having 4 favs and needed a dog. First time out, you know...

As far as Silva... I honestly didn't think much of Leben... thought he'd gas. Read a few things online that more or less confirmed that it was worth a small bet... Shoulda listened to you on the Escudero fight. .

I just think I need to do more research to get the feel of a good dog bet... just don't have the feel for it.

For me to take a dog I have to believe he has a legit chance of winning ,50/50 or better. Also just because you find a match where you think the dog wins you have to look and see if its a bad matchup or not for him

[zY|]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou

[Luke]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

Alot of the time to find a good dog look for a favorite that is more fighting on his name than his past 3 or 4 fights.

Couture ,Bonnar, Ortiz, would come to mind. These fighters lines are probably overvalued so the dog could be a play

[triathlete]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

This is all good feedback, and I appreciate you guys taking the time to help coach me along. One of these days, I will be able to substantially contribute :)

[Luke]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

[quote=zY|]

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou[/quote:3ix9l6gf]


NOU???

WTF is NOU?

Also what is Blue Mountain State you guys are talking about?

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

Alot of the time to find a good dog look for a favorite that is more fighting on his name than his past 3 or 4 fights.

Couture ,Bonnar, Ortiz, would come to mind. These fighters lines are probably overvalued so the dog could be a play

Good point for sure and advice to take to heart, but I'd watch out betting against Couture.

[SPX]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

This is all good feedback, and I appreciate you guys taking the time to help coach me along. One of these days, I will be able to substantially contribute :)

We're happy to help.

Also, you will learn quickly as long as you put your head into it. The very first event I actually bet on was the Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale about 6 months ago and I have definitely had some ups and downs. It's been a learning experience. I actually had a real rough patch but seemed to have made it through it and (thankfully) have been doing really well lately.

[zY|]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou

NOU???

WTF is NOU?

Also what is Blue Mountain State you guys are talking about?

no


u

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFN 20 Bets

+5u for the night for me.

I hate when a fighter comes out with a totally new skill. Since when can Lawlor strike? I think the decision was justifiable though. I think it could be justified the other way too. NOT a robbery.

I read Dos Anjos pretty well schooled Bradley.

Glad I abstained on Diaz, though I do think there was value there.
I need to start betting for value. I knew Dunham was a BA, I should have followed SPX there.

anyway... I will take it. Takes my picks to 18-2 (I still dispute the Sokodjou loss though... I think they poisoned him or something)