UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

Pulled the trigger on Bader, against all advice.

I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.

I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.

With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

How much you take him for?

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

Any ideas on what picks?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

I am now considering just betting every fight on the card (besides the Aussie matchups). They are all close to even.. I think I can turn a profit this way

Any ideas on what picks?

well I decided against it.

But if i did...


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (No. 4 HW) vs. Cain Velasquez (No. 9 HW)
Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping
Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos
Ryan Bader vs. Keith Jardine
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Ben Rothwell
Goran Reljic vs. C.B. Dollaway
Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Chris Lytle vs. Brian Foster
James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac
Elvis Sinosic vs. Chris Haseman

I really want Nog and Wand to win... but I feel like Cain will take a decision and Bisping will work in some takedowns and take a decision.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

How much you take him for?

originally 3 units... but then I talked myself into the full 5u bet.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

[quote=MMA_scientist][quote="zY|":pwex11dj]

I would make the Rolles bet again if they fought next week.

Really? The guy has zero cross training, gassed out, and quit. No way. That was one of the most pathetic "fights" I've seen in the UFC in a long time.[/quote:pwex11dj]

he executed his gameplan perfectly, had him mounted with 2 minutes. Beltran escaped, but still.

Rolles was also winning the standup exchnages IMO, until he gassed.

Don't get me wrong, I was pissed. But looking back, he had an adrenaline dump, and just lost his strength. It was only his 4th fight, and he knows everyone was watching him. Cardio makes cowards of us all. I think he would win that fight 9/10 times.[/quote:pwex11dj]
Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

What if it was Fedor debuting in a hyped rematch with Crocop?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

Just dropped 1.5u on Mirko at -135.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

Here is some good advice. NEVER bet on someone making thier UFC debut as a heavy favorite.

What if it was Fedor debuting in a hyped rematch with Crocop?

We know what to expect from Fedor against top competition. Exception to the rule. Adrenaline dump can be a huge factor in a fight and it happens alot for guys making thier debut.

[PITT 22]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

My picks for 110 so far:

George Sotiropolous +220 2 units- More of a value pick here. I think this fight could go either way and I love George's Jits. Should be a great fight.

Wand -150 2 units- I dont like Bisping and I feel Wanderlei will catch him similar to the Silva-Jardine fight. Bisping thinks he is some great standup fighter but I dont see it.

Nog -120 3 units I like Nog here because I feel he has far superior standup and Cain relies on his wrestling a ton so if he wants to wrestle one of the best BJJ blackbelts in the history of MMA on the ground, he will be submitted. I have not seen Cain show stand up skills that can compete with Nog and experience wise Nog also gets the nod. I see Cain leaving a limb out and being submitted. He is fighting a whole different level of fighter in Minotauro.

I'm leaning Jardine as well but I need to do more work. Bader's standup in the fight with Red Shaefer was very unimpressive. I thought he hung his hands alot and a vet like Jardine will pick this apart. Also, Keith has an excellent camp with some great wrestlers and they will have him prepared. Plus Jardine could really use a W

[UKDonkbet]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

Pulled the trigger on Bader, against all advice.

I went out and looked at what he has actually done. He is 5-5 in the ufc. He has only stopped Forrest. 2 of those wins were split decisions (I think he beat Chuck clearly, but Vera could have gone either way). He is basically a decision fighter... and not a very consistent one.

I took an odds heavy approach. If the "good" Jardine shows up, I still don't know that he can win. Bader should be able to score takedowns at will, which should allow him to steal a round when he needs to. I figure there is a very good chance this is going to the cards, in which case I think Bader will win with his takedown advantage. I think there is just as good a chance that Bader KO's Jardine as vice-versa, even though Jardine is a better striker.

With the odds being so close, I think there is enough advantages for Bader to make a bet. So I did.

I haven't bet on this fight. I think its high variance but I think Bader's side is the only one worthy of an argument. Bader has more tools and more ways to win this fight. I'm positive he will come in much better shape than his fight w/Schafer. Bader tore his PCL and MCL in the first round of his fight against Marrero and took on Shafer 6 months later. I think he will come into this fight 100% healthy, hopefully, and grind Jardine down w/take downs or catch Jardine w/his hands hanging

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

anyone know what time this is showing in the states?

[zY|]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

It's taking place Sunday afternoon at 2pm in Australia to ensure that it takes place at standard time Saturday night in the US.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

What do you guys think the Bonnar fight will open at? And do you think the odds on Wandy will get better closer to fight time?

[Luke]

Re: UFC 110: Discussion & Bets

What do you guys think the Bonnar fight will open at? And do you think the odds on Wandy will get better closer to fight time?

I'd open Bonnar at -135 to -150