UFC 112

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 112

I don't think you'll find a whole lot of takedown attempts on Kelly to be honest. They haven't really matched him up in the UFC with a straight up Wrestler because of the fact that he's British and they aren't exactly world class grapplers in Britain for the most part just yet. Veach has the advantage of a decent ground game with hands heavy enough to catch Kelly standing. I don't see a whole lot of ways for Paul Kelly to win this fight other than getting lucky and catching Veach(which could happen). It's a smaller margin than usual though because Veach likes to clinch. Just some food for thought.

I started from the Taylor fight and am now watching the Delgado fight. Kelly has been taken down every single time someone tried to take him down. Kelly also lands a decent amount of takedowns and maintains top control...but that doesn't mean much when against Paul Taylor and Troy Mandaloniz (they are nowhere near Veach in the wrestling department).

So I hope the line on Veach is decent.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 112

Ok, the only time I saw Kelly defend a takedown is when a gassed Delgado did a half ass shot and fell right to his back before Kelly even sprawled.

Veach should win this imo. Hope he opens in the -165 range.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 112

Hammersmith's writeup

http://www.mmamafia.net/mma-news/featur ... -odds.html

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 112

my bets:

Maia .5u
Dos Anjos 2u

I am considering Hughes as he approaches -400

I like Veach up to -270

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 112

my bets:

Maia .5u
Dos Anjos 2u

I am considering Hughes as he approaches -400

I like Veach up to -270

I like all those picks except Maia. I dont think he will get it done.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 112

my bets:

Maia .5u
Dos Anjos 2u

I am considering Hughes as he approaches -400

I like Veach up to -270

I like all those picks except Maia. I dont think he will get it done.

Well its definately not greater than 50%, but I think he has value. He is +550 on some sites... he has a better chance than that IMO. Of all the dogs on this card, he is the one with a definitive advantage and clear path to victory. Renzo has to beat Hughes at what Hughes does best... same with Edgar. Maia is definately a better grappler than Silva, and he has the tools to get the fight there.

But I agree, most likely, he will lose.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 112

I wish the rest of the lines would be posted already.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 112

I think I am going to take BJ if he drops to -600 to -650

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 112

Pulled the trigger on Hughes @ -455 for 5u (it is really a violation of my -400 rule, but I can't resist it anymore).

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 112

Pulled the trigger on Hughes @ -455 for 5u (it is really a violation of my -400 rule, but I can't resist it anymore).

Good luck. He is at -440 right now on my book, and I was thinking of taking him now. But I am not sure how the line will move in the next few days.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 112

Pulled the trigger on Hughes @ -455 for 5u (it is really a violation of my -400 rule, but I can't resist it anymore).

How do you see the fight playing out?

Do you think Hughes will keep it standing for 3 rounds / GNP / combination of both.

My hesitation with Hughes is that he will certainly dominate Gracie, but if he takes him down like he did to Royce, he could get caught in a lucky sub.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 112

Renzo is more of a top control grappler than Royce was. I don't see subs as "lucky"... Hughes is tough to sub, and he managed to survive BJ on the ground the last time they fought. Renzo is not as good as some of his siblings at pure bjj... he was always more focused on MMA, and he was not that great of an MMA fighter even in his prime.

Hughes should beat him standing, or on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised to see see a top control special from Hughes, but I have a feeling he is going to be looking for a KO. For once, Matt is going to have a standup advantage... and I think he will relish it. Renzo used to have some nice leg kicks, but that has never been a problem for Hughes.

Renzo will never quit though. Hughes will literally have to beat him unconscious or the ref pull him off, because Renzo will fight to the death. But being 3 rounds, I think Hughes will cruise and probably win a top control decision, or maybe a very crappy standup decision. Either way, I think Hughes has him beat.

May has good sub defense. GSP and Penn subbed him from dominant positions. I don't think he has been subbed from guard since the Hallman fights. Renzo is not as slick as BJ, I doubt he will be able to arm bar him.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 112

Hughes also has the advantage of having the body type to give any jiu jitsu practitioner a problem on the bottom. He's all upper body. Most of his 170lbs is up top and when he gets to putting it down on your chest while he's beating you down it can really wear on a guy. If you notice, even Royce was completely gassed by the end of that fight from being smotherfucked the whole time. The only way Renzo can possibly win this is to take Hughes down first, and I don't think he has the tools to do it. Hughes is still very strong and very capable of beating Renzo just about anywhere this goes.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 112

smotherfucked

I like that.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 112

I really like Hughes in this fight, and -440 is not bad. I have hughes +260 something to win by decision for half a unit. I say Hughes is at least a 80% favorite, and even if he only wins a decision half the time he wins ( 40%), +260 has value.