UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I think Ellenberger will beat Saunders, and have no idea why is the underdog. Is Saunders better off his back than Condit? He might be better in the clinch at this point, but I see a lot of big takedowns. I will probably bet there too.

My main concern is Ellenberger getting tied up in the clinch, because Saunders' clinch is fucking deadly and he's giving up about 3 inches in height. Ellenberger really has impressed the shit out of me, though. I bet on him against Pyle and he destroyed Pyle.

I'm hoping Ellenberger hits +150. If he does, I'll definitely take him. I might do it even at +130 if I can't get anything better.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Ive been looking at the Mir/Carwin fight a little today.

I havent heard much about Carwins layoff, which will be over a year when he steps in the octagon again. He is also coming off some minor surgery.

Anyone think this will affect him?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I don't put too much stock in it personally.

I like Carwin more as I consider it- his preparation for GG will have helped him prepare for Mir. They are both good strikers with poor takedowns and good bjj. Obviously, Mir has looked good, but he is going to have to beat Carwin with strikes which he has definately shown he can do lately. But I still don't but this "Mir is an awesome striker" theory. Where did this come from? Did he suddenly learn how to strike after 10 years in MMA? Cain definately took some of the shine off of his Nog performance, especially if Nog was also sick for Mir. His win over Kongo was still impressive, but less face it, Kongo is not very good on the ground (not so impressed with the guilotine, which, probably would have burned him out if Kongo had survived- but am am surprised that he dropped him with a punch).

So it might be my anti-Mir bias. But I like Carwin more then more I consider it.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I think you are probably being a little hard on Mir. There's really not much doubt that his striking has looked improved, even after 10 years. I agree that Cain's win over Nog has thrown Mir's into question. As for the Kongo fight, it was so short that it's hard to figure out exactly what it tells us about Mir. Could he do it again? I really don't know.

I have 1u on Carwin at +150, but I think this one could go either way.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

^^When was the last time you actually watched Carwin's fights. I rewatched all 3 of his UFC fights yesterday, and he looks terrible in all of them. He's very slow, very stiff, throws predictable one twos, and gets smashed in the face by EVERYBODY. Old Skool Neil Wain was lighting him up.

The fact that he has game changing power makes it tough to bet against him, but that is his really his only positive attribute.

EDIT: Ninja'd by SPX, was replying to Scientist.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I agree with most everything you said, zY. If he had the sort of power that Cain typical shows in his fights, then I doubt he would even be any sort of force in the division. But the fact that he can shut the lights off with just one punch is huge. Also, even though we haven't seen much of it in the UFC, he is a credentialed wrestler so it's not like he's totally 1 dimensional.

[triathlete]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

What kind of stock are you putting in Mir wanting to kill Lesnar, therefore he'll do whatever is necessary to Carwin to do so? Or, is it a distraction that cannot be ignored? I'm very curious about what that's doing to Mir's mindset from here on out.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Pretty pathetic for the HW division when some huge slow guy with a bazooka hand is a title contender.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

What kind of stock are you putting in Mir wanting to kill Lesnar, therefore he'll do whatever is necessary to Carwin to do so? Or, is it a distraction that cannot be ignored? I'm very curious about what that's doing to Mir's mindset from here on out.

I don't put much stock in it.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Could go either way: Will Mir's obsession with Lesnar drive him to train his hardest or will he look past Carwin and not prepare like he should for that particular fight?

Either way, I'm just amazed that someone is that excited about getting another ass whippin'.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Pretty pathetic for the HW division when some huge slow guy with a bazooka hand is a title contender.

I thought Lesnar was already champ?

[Luke]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I need to stat looking at Mir/Carwin more but right now I'd lean Carwin

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I need to stat looking at Mir/Carwin more but right now I'd lean Carwin

Im leaning Murr's way, but as someone already said, that Carwin light switch power is hard to bet against.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

Shane Carwin Punch




=


Dim Mak

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 111 odds / Discussion / Bets

I like Mir in this one.