Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

On a more "on topic" note:

1.9u to win 1u on Arlovski, not sure I like Overeem at -300 though.

.5u parlay to win 4.8u on Krazy Horse, Arlvoski, Roger Gracie, and Jacare.

I really hope you win the parlay....because I want Krazy Horse to win.

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Scientist:

The way I would phrase is to say that there's definitely an opposite camp of "true believers" who latch onto just about anything and will believe it with just the flimsiest of evidence.

Personally, I consider myself the epitome of the agnostic. Like I said to zY, I believe nothing, but am open to everything.

A little about how I got there: I crew up Christian--was raised Baptist, in fact--and was a believer from an early age. Between the ages of about 14 and 18 I become deeply entrenched in Christian thought. But even then I was logical in my pursuit and questioned everything. If I ran into what seemed to be contradictions in the Bible, or if I found shit that just didn't make sense, I acknowledged it. I also acknowledged that, at least for me, faith was not enough, and I got pretty deeply involved in the study of Christian apologetics which, if you don't know, is basically the study of the evidence to support the Biblical story/Christianity.

Long story short, for a whole list of reasons--both intellectual and emotional--I eventually walked away from Christianity. For me, the whole "case for Christ" just fell apart under scrutiny. I am not completely closed off to there being some sort of supernatural truth to it, but I feel that that truth--if there is anything--is very difficult if not impossible to decipher. Most likely though, it's just all bullshit.

The reason I relate this is because that whole experience changed me fundamentally. I require substantial evidence to really buy into anything. I didn't go the route of many Christians who defect, which is to go completely atheistic and to deny the possibility of anything that that's not overtly obvious. I am still open to mysteries.

So if someone has something that they say is real--whether it's ghosts, or UFOs, or psychic abilities, or fucking fairies or gnomes--then I'll listen, but I'll want them to SHOW me something. You know, prove it. Don't just TELL ME something . . . but show me. I've had people telling me shit my whole life.

So I do agree, to some extent, about people and about 3rd party stories. But still, I think that if the anecdotal evidence is overwhelming, then it should be at least be enough to make you stroke your chin and say "hmm, maybe" and give it a deeper look.

[Svino]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I'd like to get Svino's take on the probability of him not only having a dream that had multiple elements events come true, but also waking up at just the right time, and also it being one of the rare dreams that he remembered.

I'm afraid I can't put odds on something like that. But I will point out that it does depend on how you think about it. For example if you were to ask, "For a given workplace explosion, what are the odds that at least one employee there had a dream about a similar accident the night before?" I would probably say that the odds are not too bad. A little exaggeration and the fact that memories of dreams can be quite elastic could easily take care of the rest.

Since we're sharing personal stories, here are two of mine.

1) When I was six years old, I started noticing a lot of cases where I would have a dream just have a random thought about something, and then it would come true. Naturally, I started to think I was psychic, but even then, I was aware that no one would believe me. So rather than tell anyone, I just decided to use all those thoughts I had to my advantage. I decided to pay extra close attention to any dreams or hunches I had so I could become like a psychic superhero. I quickly discovered to my dismay that I was producing absolutely no "actionable intelligence" whatsoever. I decided everything I noticed earlier must have been coincidence, and that my superhero career would have to rely instead on my emerging powers of pyrokinesis and flight.[1]

2) On two occasions within the last year, there have been incidents within my family where one person has had a bad dream about some type of severe misfortune happening to another family member. The dreams were so disturbing that they just had to call up right away to see if they were true and… Nope. No truth in either dream [2]. Dreams reflect our worries. People worry about the safety of their family members, and those who have dangerous workplaces worry about accidents.


Personally, I'm about as rationalist / materialist a guy as you're ever likely to meet. At this point, I'd probably have to get several extremely accurate dreams before I started to think too much of it. And since we're recommending books, two that I like related to topics like this:
http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Haunted-Wor ... 201&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isn ... 0029117062
This one deals with various forms of cognitive bias and I would definitely recommend it to any gambler. It also has a chapter on ESP, (although the author interestingly does not mention Dr. Bem, even though they are in the same department.)


[1] OK, this very last part might not be true.
[2] Unless… they were seeing the future?!

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

On two occasions within the last year, there have been incidents within my family where one person has had a bad dream about some type of severe misfortune happening to another family member. The dreams were so disturbing that they just had to call up right away to see if they were true and… Nope. No truth in either dream [2]. Dreams reflect our worries. People worry about the safety of their family members, and those who have dangerous workplaces worry about accidents.

At the very least you'd have to agree that it's a fallacy to assume that your individual experience, or that of your family members, is indicative of all human experience. That reminds me of people who have medically died and didn't have a near-death experience, so they concluded that all people who report having a near-death experience are lying.

I would say that naturally everyone will have dreams about events that don't come true. That's the natural order of things. But if you do have a dream that's very specific with a great level of accuracy--especially when you have the dream on the very night of the event . . . well I'm no statistician, but I'd think the odds are much greater than 1,000,000:1.

Personally, I'm about as rationalist / materialist a guy as you're ever likely to meet. At this point, I'd probably have to get several extremely accurate dreams before I started to think too much of it. And since we're recommending books, two that I like related to topics like this:
http://www.amazon.com/Demon-Haunted-Wor ... 201&sr=1-1

http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isn ... 0029117062
This one deals with various forms of cognitive bias and I would definitely recommend it to any gambler. It also has a chapter on ESP, (although the author interestingly does not mention Dr. Bem, even though they are in the same department.)

I'm familiar with Sagan's book. I may have to give the other one a look, though.

[poopoo333]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

On a more "on topic" note:

1.9u to win 1u on Arlovski, not sure I like Overeem at -300 though.

.5u parlay to win 4.8u on Krazy Horse, Arlvoski, Roger Gracie, and Jacare.

I for sure dont like Overeem at -300.It would take like -125 for me to bet him. I was going to bet 1 unit on Gracie and 1 on Arlovski but I think I'll just put 2 on AA so I dont have to lay such huge juice on Gracie


OK back to ghosts,aliens,UFO and ESP

[Svino]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

At the very least you'd have to agree that it's a fallacy to assume that your individual experience, or that of your family members, is indicative of all human experience. That reminds me of people who have medically died and didn't have a near-death experience, so they concluded that all people who report having a near-death experience are lying.

I would say that naturally everyone will have dreams about events that don't come true. That's the natural order of things. But if you do have a dream that's very specific with a great level of accuracy--especially when you have the dream on the very night of the event . . . well I'm no statistician, but I'd think the odds are much greater than 1,000,000:1.

The moral of that story, as I saw it, was a reminder of selection bias. People usually only tell stories about the time they dreamed about something that did happen. But for every one of those, there must be a huge number of uncelebrated cases where the dreams are not real - maybe even, as you suggest, millions.

As for near-death experiences, they may not be totally understood, but I think the neurobio guys are on top of that one.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

The moral of that story, as I saw it, was a reminder of selection bias. People usually only tell stories about the time they dreamed about something that did happen. But for every one of those, there must be a huge number of uncelebrated cases where the dreams are not real - maybe even, as you suggest, millions.

As for near-death experiences, they may not be totally understood, but I think the neurobio guys are on top of that one.

not just that, but there is confirmation bias, even within individual dream. The dreamer more readily recalls the details of the dream that support the hypothesis of clairvoyance. But he forgets the other details that dillute the clarity of the vision.

I have never had a clairvoyant dream, and I have tried to harness my jedi powers several times.

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

The moral of that story, as I saw it, was a reminder of selection bias. People usually only tell stories about the time they dreamed about something that did happen. But for every one of those, there must be a huge number of uncelebrated cases where the dreams are not real - maybe even, as you suggest, millions.

Well that's just it. No one is saying that ALL dreams are gateways to psychic insight . . . only that dreams can be a tool to such insight. I really think they have to be taken on a case by case basis.

As for near-death experiences, they may not be totally understood, but I think the neurobio guys are on top of that one.

They're trying. I have a book called "The God Part of the Brain"--about the topic of "neurotheology"--and there's a discussion of near-death experiences. But the problem is that the explanations are pretty weak and it's a lot of conjecture.

There are a number of other researchers though, like Dr. Melvin Morse, Dr. Bruce Greyson, PMH Atwater, Dr. Raymond Moody, and a handful of others who freely admit that current explanations pretty much fall apart when under scrutiny. There are a few problems. . . The most obvious is how in the fuck does a human brain completely devoid of any electrical activity--a brain that is "dead" by our current understanding--do anything at all? Next is the fact that many experiencers, while "dead," not only have conscious experiences, but have conscious experiences out of their body and have witnessed and recalled events that have proven to be accurate.

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

I'll say this shit, too: Don't get me wrong, there's a part of me that would love to believe that there is no multi-dimensional reality out there or no sort of spiritual existence and that we are just the universe's mistakes and that we come to earth and live and die and that's it. I'm sure I'd just pimp it, and do a lot of drugs, fuck bitches in the ass every chance I got, and listen to a lot of "Into the Groove" by Madonna. Then I'd die and cease to exist forever.

But I feel like there is strong enough evidence to suggest that there is SOMETHING beyond this world that I reserve judgement for time being.

[Ludo]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Actually, even in death the brain continues to fire for several minutes even after the body is dead. Which is why alot of times when killed suddenly you have cases of people convulsing on the ground when they couldn't possibly be alive, or like when an animal is hit by a car and they move once or twice a couple seconds later. But seriously, could we maybe get back to talking about MMA and move this topic to it's own thread or something so it doesn't take another 4 pages on an about to be very active fight night thread?

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Actually, even in death the brain continues to fire for several minutes even after the body is dead.

But that's just it. That is NOT clinical death. Clinical death is defined, at least in part, as a complete cessation of brain activity. And that is the state under which many of these people are having these experiences.

But seriously, could we maybe get back to talking about MMA and move this topic to it's own thread or something so it doesn't take another 4 pages on an about to be very active fight night thread?

Dude, we'll be done by then. We got 3 days.

[zY|]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Good fucking God I'm not reading all that shit.

[SPX]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Good fucking God I'm not reading all that shit.

It's real page-turning kind of stuff.

[Luke]

Re: Strikeforce HEAVY ARTILLERY- MAY 15, 2010

Good fucking God I'm not reading all that shit.

Lol ZY