Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

[zY|]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

Yeah SPX, your math and logic makes sense, but the problem becomes the handicapping doesn't conform to it.

Here's a question. How many fights have you thought were 50/50 upon entering but then afterwards it's obvious one guy totally outclasses the other?

I guess it just comes down to confidence in your handicapping skill, but I just don't see this as something you can get down to a quantifiable science like counting cards in blackjack.

Honestly I don't put a lot of stock into my exact percentages. I usually set one and compare it to the lines that are offered, but really my judgement calls are more like:

He Will Almost Certainly Lose (Don't bet)
He Might Win, But It's Doubtful (Bet Him if I can get +300 or better)
Could Go Either Way (Bet the Dog at +150 or better)
He Should Win, But The Other Guy Could Definitely Take It (there are different levels of certainty here, but this is in the -135 to -300 range, depending on how confident I am)
He Will Almost Certainly Win (these are the few times that I drop bets in the -400 or higher range)

. . . or something like that.

That's not an exact guide to how I make my decisions, but it's a good generalization.

Yeah that does make a lot of sense.

[Luke]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

What we really need to do is all guess odds on fights before they come out .I think that would help us out alot

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

What we really need to do is all guess odds on fights before they come out .I think that would help us out alot

I would like to do that, and I always mean to do my research before the lines come out, but I rarely get around to it.

Thankfully, summer will be here soon and school will be over and I'll have a lot more time to focus on my betting life.

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

Another thought on betting dogs:

If the odds are good, really what I need is a path to victory. I took Kenehara at +300 against Kid and Smith at +325 against Le because I saw paths of victory. I knew Kanehera could use his reach and height to pick Kid apart and Smith could do his standard come from behind KO. If I hadn't seen a path to victory then I would not have bet.

[Ludo]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

Brave pick on Smith.

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

Brave pick on Smith.

Thank you.

I knew Le had a good kickboxing record, but his MMA record pretty much sucked. He was undefeated, sure, but he had faced ONLY low-level competition.

No doubt for most of that fight I "knew" I had wasted that money. But Le's gas tank wasn't all that and Smith put him away. Sucks for me that it was only a micro bet.

[Ludo]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

Yeah I probably wouldn't have had the balls to put a bet on Smith. Le might have faced almost no one but he's still one of the best pure strikers in all of MMA. If he hadn't been toying with Smith alot of the time he probably would have finished him. Congrats on the money though, however small it was.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

SPX is right with regard to long term returns.


But I am with ZY on betting dogs. I have to think my guy is actually going to win the fight on the night they are fighting.

I just take into account the human element. I like to keep may bankroll swings to a minimum. If you bet everywhere you see value, your bankroll will swing wildly. So A: you need a bigger bankroll; and B: you have to have the fortitude to not chase your losses and have the patience to let your edge play out.

Personally, I think people THINK they can do it, but they never do. I think gamblers lose because they can't manage their bankroll, its pretty easy picking fights. It is always "after this one I will bet in correlation to my bankroll" or "I just want to get my bankroll to something I care about"... but it never happens because people can't hack losing. I don't impune, because I am the same way. I used to play a lot of poker online. I am an advantage player, I can beat the game at the lower levels... but I never could make much money because I didn't properly manage my bankroll- no patience. I am determined to not let that flaw undermine my mma wagering project. So I only bet dogs that I think will win. I couldn't handle losing 10 or 15 dogs in a row.

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

I just take into account the human element. I like to keep may bankroll swings to a minimum. If you bet everywhere you see value, your bankroll will swing wildly. So A: you need a bigger bankroll; and B: you have to have the fortitude to not chase your losses and have the patience to let your edge play out.

As I mentioned to zY, I don't literally bet EVERYWHERE I see value, otherwise I'd be taking even more bets than I do. Or maybe I do, and it's just that a lot of fights I just can't figure out.

As for thinking dogs will win, I find that as long as your bets are sized correctly (usually I bet less on bigger dogs, more on lesser dogs) and you're making GOOD decisions on what underdogs you choose to take, then you only need to win 1 of 3 turn a profit. I mean, my dog record for the year is 6-11, but I'm still ahead 2.5u. That's what I like about betting dogs. You can lose more fights but still win. Also, I think it's an opportunity for me to have a little action on the fight, without risking too much to upset my night. I mean, if I have .25u or .5u on a fighter then it's really not a big deal if he loses.

It's the bets on favorites that I just HAVE to win.

I couldn't handle losing 10 or 15 dogs in a row.

If a bettor loses 10 or 15 dogs in a row then they're not doing something right.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

If a bettor loses 10 or 15 dogs in a row then they're not doing something right.

I think you are underestimating the likelihood of a losing streak. Even if you are at 50/50 actual odds, the chance that you will lose 10 in a row is pretty damn good.

Svino, we need you here.

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

I think you are underestimating the likelihood of a losing streak. Even if you are at 50/50 actual odds, the chance that you will lose 10 in a row is pretty damn good.

Svino, we need you here.

Well we're not talking about 50/50, and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, sometimes a dog should actually be the favorite (Carwin, anyone?). So you have to take that into account because if you have a sharp eye then you can find those dogs with a fair degree of regularity.

With that said, I did lose 8 fights in a row once. That's the worst losing streak I've ever had. It sucked. Wasn't all dogs, either. It was just that when I bet the fave, the dog won. And when I bet the dog, the fave won. And there was some bad luck mixed in with it, like John Alessio knocking out Luigi Fioravanti in the third after getting worked for 2 1/2 rounds.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

I think you are underestimating the likelihood of a losing streak. Even if you are at 50/50 actual odds, the chance that you will lose 10 in a row is pretty damn good.

Svino, we need you here.

Well we're not talking about 50/50, and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, sometimes a dog should actually be the favorite (Carwin, anyone?). So you have to take that into account because if you have a sharp eye then you can find those dogs with a fair degree of regularity.

With that said, I did lose 8 fights in a row once. That's the worst losing streak I've ever had. It sucked. Wasn't all dogs, either. It was just that when I bet the fave, the dog won. And when I bet the dog, the fave won. And there was some bad luck mixed in with it, like John Alessio knocking out Luigi Fioravanti in the third after getting worked for 2 1/2 rounds.

Sure, but for every dog that is 60%, you have one that is 40% but the line puts him at 20%.

See, you lost 8 in a row... I can't hack losing 8 bets in a row. I would put the rest of my bankroll on the line on the next fight trying to get back. It's something I am still working on. I go on massive tilt.

[SPX]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

See, you lost 8 in a row... I can't hack losing 8 bets in a row. I would put the rest of my bankroll on the line on the next fight trying to get back. It's something I am still working on. I go on massive tilt.

It sucked. What happened is all in the scope of one weekend I went 0-5 at DREAM 11 and then 0-3 at MFC 22. I know half the reason was that I did a lot of stuff I don't normally do. I was tailing someone on all my DREAM bets and didn't know shit about most of the fighters and then I did very little research for MFC 22 and basically bet on hunches. Thankfully most of my bets were relatively small (1 unit or less), but I took a 6u hit that put me pretty deep into the hole (I was about even overall at that point). At that point I wasn't taking too many bets per event so it took me quite a while to dig out of.

In a way I'm thankful, though. That incident caused me to start paying a lot more attention and to do more thorough research. It also lead me to start taking more bets, which has definitely increased my profitability. A 3 unit win used to be a very successful event for me. Now it's okay, but I've had much bigger nights.

As for going on tilt, I did that recently. I was so pissed that I lost 1.5u on Irvin and so intent on having a winning event at UFC on Versus that I dropped 5u on a last minute bet on Kongo. Thankfully it worked out.

[Svino]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

If a bettor loses 10 or 15 dogs in a row then they're not doing something right.

I think you are underestimating the likelihood of a losing streak. Even if you are at 50/50 actual odds, the chance that you will lose 10 in a row is pretty damn good.

Svino, we need you here.

LOL, the nerd-signal has been sent out. For 50/50 fights, your odds of losing a given set of 10 are 1 in 1024.* Whether or not it ever happens to you will depend on how much you bet, but if you should be safe from this one. On the other hand, if your bets are all 20%-ers, losing 10 in a row is about 1 in 10, so it would happen to you before too long if you kept betting 100 times a year or more.


* Fun fact: For n 50/50 fights in a row, the probability is (1 / 2^n) and because 2^10 is so close to 10^3, you can estimate these quickly even for long streaks. Losing 20 in a row is about 1 in a million, 30 in a row is 1 in a billion, etc. Yay math!

[Svino]

Re: Official Year-to-Date Results Thread

As far as dogs vs. favorites, I've always thought the most important thing was just to bet value, however you get it. If you size bets the right way, there is no difference in variance: Losing $100 on four fights and winning $400 in the last is the same variance as winning $100 in four fights and losing $400 in the last. Of course there can be an emotional difference, some people might want their big swings to be wins (betting underdogs), others prefer lots of little wins and the occasional big loss.

I certainly don't bet every fight that I think might have value. I pare it down pretty selectively to the ones I am most sure of. The thing is, I think the ability to find value at different parts of the range is a different skill. If you find your underdog bets are consistently less productive than your bets on favorites, it could just be you're better at finding value on favorites. I'd say it's definitely worth focusing bets on one region if that's where you have the most success. Personally I have found so far that the "underdogs that I think are going to win" are kind of a sweet spot for me. I have done very well on the +110 to +170 range guys that I actually thought should be favored.