UFC 113

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

You will rue the day you cross me. Rue the day.

LOL

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.

I actually did it several months ago. I just felt that I was leaving money on the table with my conservatively sized bets. I believe in my system. I think if I focus on it, I can pick 80-90% winners. My problem is that I just get wild and start making bets that don't fit my criteria. I think 50u is enough to protect my bankroll if I am smart.

So the solution is to research and win more, rather than make more bets. Of course, I haven't been doing it lately. This board is making me looser.

In the old days, I probably would not have bet any fight on this card (I would have bet Lawlor/Creduer as that fit my criteria to a T). You can still find value in the favorites, but you have to be selective. I keep saying I am going to go back to that, but I haven't been doing it.

But, truth be told, I cashed out for a down payment on a plot of land. So I may just be justifying it now. I did not want to cut my bankroll in half, so now I am back in the building rapidly phase. I am also dumping money back in, and should be back to where I was in a few months.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

So I have a 50u bankroll, back down from 100u. I felt I was being too conservative with my 100u bankroll and I had to cash out to buy some crap.

That's news.

Makes your 5u bets a lot more interesting to the observer.

I looked back and I have never taken a 20% dip. I have my losses like everyone, but February 2010 was my very worst hit ever. But I was back to where I was before that by April. I just don't need 100units.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 113

This board is making me looser

How so?

I find that interesting because this board makes me bet way tighter and keeps my head on straight for the most part.If I wasnt posting on a forum no one would know what I'm betting and I really wouldnt care as much if I were losing money because no would know.Since I post all my plays on here and people know if I'm up or down money it keeps me from doing stupid things(most of the time)

It really keeps me serious on my boxing bets more than MMA

[Luke]

Re: UFC 113

I looked back and I have never taken a 20% dip. I have my losses like everyone, but February 2010 was my very worst hit ever. But I was back to where I was before that by April. I just don't need 100units.

100% agree .No one needs a 100 unit bankroll if you're winning more than losing

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

Interesting, Scientist.

You say you've never been 20% down. At 5u with a 50u bankroll, wouldn't that mean you'd only have to lose two of your 5u bets in a row to be that far down?

If it works for you, then praise be to Allah. But that's too much risk for me. I personally am working with what amounts to about a 50u bankroll and 5u bets are very rare for me. My recent bet on Mayweather was the first in a while.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

100% agree .No one needs a 100 unit bankroll if you're winning more than losing

I think 100u is just to make people feel comfortable and safe. If you find yourself in a situation where you really NEED a 100u bankroll because of the hits you've taken then it's probably more than just negative variance.

Personally, the farthest I've ever been down is about 7 or 8 units.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

This board is making me looser

How so?

I think because I talk about all the fights more and see other points of view and it makes me think guys can win that I previously did not think could win.

For example, I would never have bet Hague/Beltran before. I don't know where the fight will happen, I don't know what the battle will be. In my system I am only supposed to be betting on fights where I know exactly what the battle will be, and who has the advantage in that area. I still get it wrong sometimes, but it does help me stay on the straight and narrow.

For example, Maia/Silva. I knew what the fight was about: Maia's takedowns against Silva's takedown defense and striking. It turns out I was wrong, because I thought Maia would be able to take him down. But that is the kind of fight I like. Either that or one guy is better at everything, like Struve/Nelson.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

Interesting, Scientist.

You say you've never been 20% down. At 5u with a 50u bankroll, wouldn't that mean you'd only have to lose two of your 5u bets in a row to be that far down?

If it works for you, then praise be to Allah. But that's too much risk for me. I personally am working with what amounts to about a 50u bankroll and 5u bets are very rare for me. My recent bet on Mayweather was the first in a while.

Correct, it has never happened. The closest I have come is when I lost 11u on Gracie and Marquart at UFC 109. But then I won with Maia and Danzig. Then I lost on Stevenson, but ended up turning a profit for 110. That was the most 5u bets I have lost in close proximity. I have never lost back to back 5u bets with no wins in between. And even if I did, I wouldnt be that concerned.

The 100u was just to make me feel safe, like you say. But I don't need it. I would rather have growth at this point. I might go to like 70u after I double up my stake this year.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 113

This board is making me looser

How so?

I find that interesting because this board makes me bet way tighter and keeps my head on straight for the most part... Since I post all my plays on here and people know if I'm up or down money it keeps me from doing stupid things(most of the time)

I'm more like MMA_scientist here. Everyone is different, and I think you've given a common reason why some people might be made more conservative by a forum. However, I think there is a general tendency for people to be more aggressive with risk after a group discussion. In the social psychology literature, this phenomenon is called "risky shift", and I have seen papers relating it to betting discussions going back to the 60's: http://tinyurl.com/2uzbtvn

A big reason for this is probably that discussions among people, especially friends, tend to be consensus-building. You know how a bunch of friends might discuss a movie after seeing it and end up basically deciding as a group whether they like it or not? Well the same thing can happen with deciding who will win a fight. And when that happens, each bettor will be more likely to place a bet because the decision has the weight of consensus behind it, and doesn't feel like just their own random hunch.

[What really freaked people out was when they thought about how this phenomenon might relate to making group decisions about going to war, or launching nukes.]

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 113

I read an awesome tutorial on betting on MMA. Some guy named Cockerhole or something wrote it. Im sure one of us could get it posted here. ; )

I dont even have a bank roll per se, unless you count my bank account. I just bet to win 100 on my bets.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

I read an awesome tutorial on betting on MMA. Some guy named Cockerhole or something wrote it. Im sure one of us could get it posted here. ; )

Dude, I read that one, too!

You're right. It was INCREDIBLE!

[SPX]

Re: UFC 113

[What really freaked people out was when they thought about how this phenomenon might relate to making group decisions about going to war, or launching nukes.]

LOL. Pretty interesting stuff, Svino.

What do you do for a living, by the way? Do you work in academia?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

Svino,

I do not recall sending out the nerd signal...

That is really what I was trying to say. Everyone agrees that a fighter is better, and even though I don't know how or why, I join in. I have the ability to ignore the mob mentality in the bigger boards, like the HW on SD. Actually, its the opposite there... when everyone on SD is saying X will win, it is usually a good indicator that he is overvalued. I am contrarian to the HWs. But for whatever reason, I go along with you turds here.

The funny thing is that I realized I had an edge in this thing when I started capping myself, with no help. I like to have a small group of guys to keep me in line though and bounce my thoughts off of. I usually ignore the input, but it helps me flush out my thoughts.