UFC 113

[Svino]

Re: UFC 113

Yeah. What I really meant was: he only goes into a fight with one gameplan.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

Good stuff Svino... I am part of the theory #1 crowd. I don't see how Shogun is going to beat him again. I think Machida has better secondary skills as well, so if the fight looks entirely different (say a grappling match) I like Machida there as well.

Shogun basically has leg kick him for 5 rounds and avoid being countered again. It is certainly possible, but I think the likelyhood is less than 50%.

I agree that Shogun has shown he can stand with Machida though. I agree that Machida cannot effectively change his striking style at this point. But it is not like Shogun was just lighting him up... he lost 2-3 rounds.

In a pure standup fight again, either Machida is going to figure out what he did to win his rounds and duplicate it 5 times, or Shogun is going to figure out how to duplicate his success in every round. Since I think much of Shogun's success was based on fatigue, I think Machida will come out and strike until he gets tired, then try to grapple in the later rounds. Just one man's theory.

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 113

^^What makes you think Machida can outgrapple Shogun? I know Machida is very underrated on the mat, but that's where Shogun does his best work. He's billed as a striker, incorrectly imo, because the guy is just brilliant on the ground.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 113

Shogun via leg lock.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

^^
Machida has a grappling win over world calibur Rafael Lovato Jr. Beating Lovato is like the equivalent of beating Maia in bjj. Its not Roger or Jacare, but its pretty damn close. Lovato is widely regarded as having the best guard in the world.

But it is more that I think the Machida has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has also show good top control. So I think he can get on top and stay there. Shogun is a good grappler too, but Machida has shown the ability in MMA and bjj to dominate positions and avoid the sub (and in MMA in America- incorrectly IMO- if you are on top, you are winning) My feeling is that if Machida can avoid being swept of subbed by Lovata, Shogun doesn't have anything for him.

Here's the match: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....ail&gid=149392

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 113

Shogun via leg lock.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 113

Shogun via leg lock.

If this happens, everyone needs to paypal me $5.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 113

^^
Machida has a grappling win over world calibur Rafael Lovato Jr. Beating Lovato is like the equivalent of beating Maia in bjj. Its not Roger or Jacare, but its pretty damn close. Lovato is widely regarded as having the best guard in the world.

But it is more that I think the Machida has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has also show good top control. So I think he can get on top and stay there. Shogun is a good grappler too, but Machida has shown the ability in MMA and bjj to dominate positions and avoid the sub (and in MMA in America- incorrectly IMO- if you are on top, you are winning) My feeling is that if Machida can avoid being swept of subbed by Lovata, Shogun doesn't have anything for him.

Here's the match: http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/mma....ail&gid=149392

Yeah I've seen it. It's very impressive, that's why I said he's a very underrated grappler. But this is MMA. Lovato was trying to sweep the whole time. Not get up and punch a hole in his head like Shogun will. Arona couldn't hold him down, neither could Rogerio. I just think Shogun is too fluid to be held down long by Machida. And Machida most certainly doesn't want to be on the bottom with Shogun on top. Shogun on top is bad news.

I agree that Machida has better takedowns and his takedown defense is phenomenal. He was the first fighter Shogun has ever fought that he failed to take down. It may not even hit the ground unless Machida wants it to. I just don't think he wants any of Shogun on the ground, as evidenced by the first fight.

That said, I really don't have a prediction in this fight. It's really just guesswork. It comes down to intangibles such as who has adapted their game up the best and who executes their gameplan.

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 113

im on Shogun, .6u to win 1u, also, 2u @+180 that it goes the distance.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 113

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

A consistent winner? Probably not. But I'm plenty happy to take a coin-toss on a +160 guy.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 113

No way I am betting this fight though. It is impossible to predict a consistent winner.

A consistent winner? Probably not. But I'm plenty happy to take a coin-toss on a +160 guy.

My thoughts exactly, Svino. Shogun coming in as a dog the second time around has me all over him at +160.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 113

adding 2 more units on Kos. 3u @-250, 2u @-240

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 113

"So if you’re a betting man, you better go to Vegas right now, and put money on Josh Koscheck because now that the guy has pissed me off, I can guarantee you that I’m gonna go in there and wrestle his ass down and rear naked choke him in round one. There you have it. I’ll probably beat him up a little bit before I choke him out, but in round one, he’s getting choked out. And that’s what he’s gonna have to sleep with over the next week – ‘How the hell am I gonna stop from getting taken down and put on my ass?’"

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 113

Line predictions on Yoshida/Guymon and Hague/Beltran?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 113

Line predictions on Yoshida/Guymon and Hague/Beltran?

Yoshida -170 Guymon +120

Hague -200 Beltran +150