UFC Fight Night 22

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Because I researched him a lot before his UFC debut against another pretty tough fighter in Elkins. Then the Elkins fight was either aired or I found it online... because i saw how easily he dispatched him. I know for sure he has vids out there, because I have seen them.

also, I learn about these guys from the grappling forum, he is an up and comer in the grappling world:


http://www.tatame.com/2010/08/22/Rodolf ... tional-Cup

http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f12/charl ... r-1295661/ Geddes is really good.

here is a whole page of grappling matches: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIwqWD4VkuY

Sherdog doesnt do a lot right, but they nailed the prospect watch, Oliveira is #3 (pitbull and Renan Barao are 1 and 2): http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/10 ... 2010-22214

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Here is the Oliveira/Elkins vid (2nd vid): http://www.mmavideos.pl/video/darren-el ... n-versus-2

here he is vs. Pachu in his split decision win (Oliveira is in the black): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxVNEkQk7vY

An MMA highlight vid: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RvcxwlbPzc

Looking at his hands, Efrain is probably going to have a pretty big edge there... he sort of has to hope Efrain takes him down or that he can score a takedown.

[doublearmbar]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

I love fight nights' they always have the best lines.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Another MMA fight vs. Dilon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EwhjK6eVy4
vs. Soare: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wptN7DttgA
another highlight with some ammy kickboxing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZrtNxLg ... re=related

A secret to finding vids on these brazilian fighters is to search their nicknames. It is really common in Brazil to just go by the nickname (maybe because they all have the same name). I had teh same issue with Pitbull Friere.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Nate Mardquardt by decision +198 @ 5dimes. What do you guys think?

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Nate Mardquardt by decision +198 @ 5dimes. What do you guys think?

Every time I bet a prop it loses . . . so I don't like it.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

I like Pearson by decision @+218 better. Miller inside distance @+365 isn't bad either, I think his only way out is by sub.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Nate Mardquardt by decision +198 @ 5dimes. What do you guys think?

I think the line is about right, maybe some value. He can possibly finish Palhares with strikes... and Palhares has shown a poor gas tank at least once.

If you think Nate is good at -200 (that is 66%), +198 is 33%- so the line indicates that Nate is equally likely to finish as decision. But, if you look at his record, Nate has finished about 2x @ often as he has decisioned, including recently.

But the flip side of that is that Palhares has never been finished, never been close to being finished.

Personally, I think Marquart is only about 50% to win, so I obviously do not like it.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

50 % to win? He is a good grappler in his own right isn't he? Close to the level of Palhares? His striking is better though. I think this one will be a close one as well.

I was thinking that with Palhares dangerous take downs and explosiveness Nate would wade in slow making for a longer fight. Nate seems to be more well rounded also. For me that equals Nate winning a D. I also watched the Palhares Hendo fight a while back and I remember Hendo really teeing off on Palhares head and him taking it so I figure he might not get knocked out..

Tough one to call.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Palhares by 3 round dec is +537. NM by 3rnd D is +198. Fight goes the distance is +120.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

yeah, I actually favor Palhares a little. That's me though, I always think the grappler is going to win, so you can't base anything off of that.

Palhares is a significantly more accomplished grappler than Nate. That doesn't mean Nate won't be a better grappler (Thiago/Kampmann), but based on what we have, I think we have to assume that Palhares would have his way with Nate on the mat.

Nate is more well rounded for sure, and definitely a better striker... But I think the odds of Palhares running a bjj clinic are about as good as the odds of Nate putting on a striking clinic.

I was just saying, from a value standpoint, if you believe Nate is 2:1, then the +198 decision line is about right IMO, just based on the math. Since I think the line is more like 1:1, I would need a significantly better line for the decision prop. I put Nate @ 50% and his chance of finishing at 50% of that, so I would need the decision prop to be +300 on Nate.

Palhares is much more of a finisher statistically. So that +573 is probably close too...

[Ludo]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Nate Mardquardt by decision +198 @ 5dimes. What do you guys think?

I think the line is about right, maybe some value. He can possibly finish Palhares with strikes... and Palhares has shown a poor gas tank at least once.

If you think Nate is good at -200 (that is 66%), +198 is 33%- so the line indicates that Nate is equally likely to finish as decision. But, if you look at his record, Nate has finished about 2x @ often as he has decisioned, including recently.

But the flip side of that is that Palhares has never been finished, never been close to being finished.

Personally, I think Marquart is only about 50% to win, so I obviously do not like it.

Dan Henderson could have finished him after he dropped him with a right uppercut when they fought. But he didn't want any part of Palhares on the ground is why he didn't follow. Everytime Rousimar got rocked he would go down and roll to try and snag a leg. I think Nate can keep him hurt but a decision is more likely. Palhares is all about the takedown, his striking isn't very technically sound alot of it is flashy kicks because he's actually looking to be taken down I think. I honestly think Marquardt can replicate Hendersons gameplan here and effectively sprawl n brawl but in order to finish him he's going to have to go to the ground with Palhares eventually.

That said, I'm not betting the fight. I've been Marquardt'd once before.

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

I've been Marquardt'd once before.

UFC 109: The Marquardtocalypse

[SPX]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Fact: Nate Marquardt's never lost two fights in a row.

[zY|]

Re: UFC Fight Night 22

Fact: UFC Fight Night 22 takes place on a Wednesday.