UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I have a unit on Jardine right now. I am thinking of a small bet on Siver, and maybe Leben @+300. Also I am curious about the odds of the TUF fights. Small bets on all of those TUF underdogs will probably pay out.

Siver and Leben are gonna lose.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010



undercard is out. Just bet all the dogs.

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Pretty much.

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Attonito opened at like +135!! Wish I had a bookmaker account.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I am looking at Gunderson/Holst now.


Gunderson is a grappler, he usually wins by submission... but he doesn't have any real official grappling cred. He was a lion's den fighter, now trains at Extreme Couture. Holst is a Muy Thai guy... just started training on the ground not too long ago. He is a blue belt under Renzo. His takedown defense looks poor. He got picked up and slammed by Corey Hill in his last outing, but whipped out a nice armbar.

I think he has some pretty good skills for a blue belt, sort of like Amir (who was also only a blue belt when he armbarred CB or Marcus Jones). But I doubt very much that he can do anything with Gunderson on the mat. Gunderson went 3 rounds with Oliviera... so I doubt Holst will sub him.

I looked at Holst's striking too. I guess he was a pretty godo karateka and muy thai pro. He had an 11-1 record in pro muy thai. But he doesn't look like he has a lot of fast twitch type power. He is very tall and looks like he just keeps guys at bay with the jab and leg kick.

Gunderson is going to win a top control special or submit him IMO. Or he will get kneed in the face and go to sleep because he is short and Holst is tall.

Anyway, probably going to be putting a few units on Gunderson.

Which means, if you want to win some money, you should bet on Holst.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Is Mcsweeney being undervalued?
Browne is undefeated, but the records of the fighters he has faced: 0-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-1, 7-9, 1-3, 0-2, 6-3, 22-18. His last two fights were against Abe Wagner, and a guy who was choked out by Sherman Pendergarst. Browne is also 6'7, but Mcsweeney is only 3 inches shorter @ 6'4.

Mcsweeney isn't the best guy out there either, but I don't think he should be near +200 against this guy.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^ The only fight I could find was against Brink. He slammed him and went berserker on him. I think he will probably beat McSweeney... after all, he is actually more experienced than McSweeney, with 9 fights.

McSweeney is 4-4 himself... but the way to go is betting the dogs on these TUF cards. McSweeney's takedown defense has probably improved a lot... so he can probably win it if he can force a kickboxing match. Also, the other guy just beats everyone's ass in 9 seconds, so he might not have a gas tank. I doubt he will finish McSweeney that quickly.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^ The only fight I could find was against Brink. He slammed him and went berserker on him. I think he will probably beat McSweeney... after all, he is actually more experienced than McSweeney, with 9 fights.

McSweeney is 4-4 himself... but the way to go is betting the dogs on these TUF cards. McSweeney's takedown defense has probably improved a lot... so he can probably win it if he can force a kickboxing match. Also, the other guy just beats everyone's ass in 9 seconds, so he might not have a gas tank. I doubt he will finish McSweeney that quickly.

I don't wanna sound like a Greg Jackson nuthugger, but you can always argue that McSweeney will have the gameplan/training camp advantage

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^ I personally think the Greg Jackson advantage is a myth or is an example of confirmation bias.

I would like to see a breakdown of the records of fighters pre and post Jackson, and a breakdown of his overall record in big orgs. There are plenty of guys that train with GJ and then get worse. Joe Stevenson is a good example... Rolles trained with GJ before costing me 5u. Marquart's gameplan to lay on his back for 3 rounds came from Greg Jackson.

So I don't know. Still, the more I think about it, from the little that we have, the fight does seem like a 50/50 proposition, giving value to McSweeney. I certainly wouldn't bet the other guy.

My guess, other gut comes out guns blazing, gets tired, eats a lot of leg kicks on his 6'7 legs... and falls over late in the second. McSweeney wins.

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I'm with the BJJ scientist. Greg Jackson is popular for 3 reasons imo.

1. GSP is awesome and would continue to mop the floor with the WW division even if I was cornering him myself.

2. Rashad and Jardine had a good run knocking off guys like Chuck and Forrest, which led to Rogan espousing the merits of Greg Jackson on PPVs.

3. Circa 2008 Jackson nipple-tweaking.

Another good example is Leonard Garcia. Jackson trains that guy and all he does is throw horrible haymakers with no defense, and although the judges disagreed, has effectively lost his last 5 fights. Also Keith Jardine is completely incapable of keeping his hands up fight after fight and this gets exploited every time out.

This is not to say that Jackson isn't a great trainer. I think he's a phenomenal trainer. He focuses on maximizing a fighter's strengths. But I think it's a fallacy to assume a Jackson-trained guy will have a better strategy than a fighter from another respected camp.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Yeah Mcsweene is an actual kickboxer. The other guy is straight up boxer, at least according to wiki that is his style. I'm with you on the GJ camp not being some super camp that beats anyone but it is a very good camp with great training partners. The other guy is fighting out of the Alliance training center?? He beat Travis Browne who is apparently a pretty good BJJ guy.. but Mcsweeney is a kickboxer, a pro one. That also make a big diff for me. He kickboxed Professionally.

[SPX]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^^ Pulver should have NEVER lost to Garcia.

Even in Pulver's post-prime state, I still say that loss was a fluke.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^ I personally think the Greg Jackson advantage is a myth or is an example of confirmation bias.

Well yeah, I was being 50% sarcastic, but I was serious when I meant he probably had a better camp. Browne's best training partner is Eddie Sanchez.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

He beat Travis Browne who is apparently a pretty good BJJ guy.. but Mcsweeney is a kickboxer, a pro one. That also make a big diff for me. He kickboxed Professionally.

Mcsweeney is fighting Travis Browne.

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^^ Pulver should have NEVER lost to Garcia.

Even in Pulver's post-prime state, I still say that loss was a fluke.

Well I was referring to his 5 fights AFTER that one. Like it or not, pretty clearly he whooped Jens' ass.