UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

[quote=zY|]

I've bet on Leben twice and he's lost twice. Never again.

So a fighter who loses two fights is incapable of ever winning again?

Yes, SPX. That's exactly what I said.

And I just bet on a bunch of guys who are probably going to lose.[/quote:33g28d1t]

Who?!?!

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Everyone who's name I didn't know that was an underdog.

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

And I just looked.

I'm on

Attonito
Bacsynski
Bryant
McSweeney

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Mcsweeney is going to win.

[zY|]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I can't believe I fucked up who's/whose. Shameful.

[Svino]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

^^^ Ludo, that girl seriously looks like she is getting raped.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

can't find anything to bet... there are a few dogs. I think Bryant has a good chance... Attonito should win, but he is not the dog. Mcsweeney will either get killed or leg kick his way to a decision (personally, I hope he gets beat up). But I don't see anything that is way out of line.

I decided against Gunderson. His takedowns are not good enough to force it down IMO.

I will probably just go Jardine for enough to win 1, just so I have something. Or I could just bet every fight on the card too... I know there is money to be made on this card, but nothing fits my criteria.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Final Plays:
1u Jardine @+125
0.25u Leben @+275
0.5u Siver @+160
0.5u Mcsweeney @+165
0.5u Holst @+195

[edman5555]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

He beat Travis Browne who is apparently a pretty good BJJ guy.. but Mcsweeney is a kickboxer, a pro one. That also make a big diff for me. He kickboxed Professionally.

Mcsweeney is fighting Travis Browne.

I think I was drunk when I wrote that.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Kyle Noke.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

MArk Holst seems like a good bet to me, is gundersons wrestling really that good? Did he ever compete in wrestling?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I was originally going to bet on Gunderson, but I changed my mind after watching vids. His wrestling isn't great and I don't know how much of an advantage he will have on the ground anyway. Striking goes to Holst, IMO. I might be flip flopping and get on Holst for a small play

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I can't find anything on this card or the WEC card I like. I might just bet all the dogs and see what happens.

[Johnny Unreliable]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

Got a few small bets but nothing I really like that much.

1u on attonito
1u on Jardine

I'm a bit worried about Jardine's disappearing chin but I don't think Hamill is as good an athlete as Bader who Jardine was about to win a decision over. Hopefully this time he will pull it out.

Might put something on mscweeney but his 4-4 record scares me.

[Svino]

Re: UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale - Jun 19th 2010

I just decided to run some numbers on the Ultimate Fighter Finales. For this, I was using the Bookmaker odds on bestfightodds.com, which only has records back to the 5th Ultimate Fighter, so that's how far back I went.

In the last six TUF Finales you would have the following unit gains/losses if you bet every dog on the card (not just the guys on the show). The first number after each event is the result if you bet 1 U on each, the second is if you bet to win 1 U on each.

TUF 5 -5.85 -0.88
TUF 6 -2.70 +0.13
TUF 7 -0.05 +0.10
TUF 8 +4.85 +4.68
TUF 9 +2.15 +0.66
TUF 10 +7.47 +8.32

TUF 5-10 total +5.87 +8.91

This shows an advantage for the dogs, even if not entirely consistent. However, it is worth pointing out the numbers if, for comparison, we just look at betting on underdogs for the last 6 UFC events:

UFC 111 -7.63 -3.53
UFC FvG -1.71 -0.39
UFC 112 +5.20 +4.08
UFC 113 +9.15 +4.03
UFC 114 +5.20 +4.08
UFC 115 +3.40 +2.85

Last 6 UFC total: +14.21 +8.31

So while the dogs in recent TUF finales have been having a good run, it is almost equally, if not more true of UFC events in general.