UFC 120 England Oct 16th

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

why ?

Champion kickboxer vs sloppy puncher. Browne was losing to McSweeney before he landed a good shot and took it to the ground.

The only way I could see Browne winning would be to take Kongo down and GnP him, but I think the likelihood of that happening is fairly slim. If anything, I could see Kongo being the one doing the taking down, just like he did repeatedly to Buentello.

I mean, who the fuck is Travis Browne? It's not even like he's some promising prospect, like Duffee was. I have to believe that Kongo will kick this dude's ass.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Yeah Kongo should win easy. Browne's only shot is if he runs in windmilling and catches Kongo.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Yeah Kongo should win easy. Browne's only shot is if he runs in windmilling and catches Kongo.

Yeah, good luck on that.

Browne has a lot of KOs on his record, but Kongo has never once been straight KOd in his MMA career.

I guess you could argue that he had never been submitted before he ran into Frank Mir, but I have to believe that Frank Mir is a much higher level submission artist than Browne is a KO artist.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Oh, and one other thing. . .

That guy that Browne fought to a close decision in Bellator has a record of 7-10.

Just sayin'.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Taking my bet on Kongo up to 4u. McSweeney may be a better striker than Kongo, but Kongo's wrestling has improved. He may be able to take it the ground if he needs to. He has shown that he is really tough to finish and he is good at getting up. I really think the difference in this fight is cardio though. Browne just comes out hoping to finish quick. Kongo has shown he can go 15 mintes. Stepping up to Kongo is a far cry from McSweeney, who is 4-4 against shit comp

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

I think the Mychal Clark fight is particularly important.

It was in Bellator, the highest level organization that he had yet fought in (and at least theoretically this should've been his hardest fight . . . kind of difficult to know for sure with such limited data on his competition). Not coincidentally I would wager, it was also his only fight to go to a decision, and a fairly close one at that.

Again, that was against 7-10 Mychal Clark. Now he's about to step up another level and fight Cheick fucking Kongo.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

I think the Mychal Clark fight is particularly important.

It was in Bellator, the highest level organization that he had yet fought in (and at least theoretically this should've been his hardest fight . . . kind of difficult to know for sure with such limited data on his competition). Not coincidentally I would wager, it was also his only fight to go to a decision, and a fairly close one at that.

Again, that was against 7-10 Mychal Clark. Now he's about to step up another level and fight Cheick fucking Kongo.

Yeah that was basically the reason I bet Kongo. Browne could have lost that fight imo...judging was weird.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Yeah that was basically the reason I bet Kongo. Browne could have lost that fight imo...judging was weird.

I think Browne probably took it, but if it had been given to Clark it certainly would've been no robbery.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Its looking like Kongo for me, and maybe Hardy.

Im a big Condit fan, believe it or not, but he has really looked shaky to me since he moved to the UFC.

[ctm0808]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

I'm throwing something down on Bisping to win by submission at +1500.

Leben had Akiyama in a number of submission attempts before finally locking in that triangle. There was a point in the second round where Leben had Akiyama in a half-hearted standing guillotine, while losing the fight, and you could see he was thinking about putting something into it.. He didn't have the gas/power at the time, but I was thinking that if that were Bisping in that spot I could see him sinking that in and finishing it right there.

Knowing that Akiyama has a great chin, combined with the speed & power on the feet, I could actually see a 2nd or 3rd round submission being Bisping's gameplan.

The problem is Bisping hasn't even attempted a submission in a couple of fights now, but he has before - he was going for armbars in the Kang fight, and I'm pretty sure he tried some against Hamill.

I actually have a unit on Akiyama at +200, but after re-watching some stuff yesterday it got me anticipating what the Bisping via sub line would be, and +1500 looked good.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Its looking like Kongo for me, and maybe Hardy.

Im a big Condit fan, believe it or not, but he has really looked shaky to me since he moved to the UFC.

Here's what Hammersmith says, and I tend to agree with him:

Dan Hardy vs. Carlos Condit: While there are many fundamentals when doing fight predictions, one of the issues that trip up a lot of bettors and fans is the concept of “battlegrounds”. Battlegrounds are the name given to an area where a fight is likely to take place, and looking at a fight in terms of where it’ll play out often gives a realistic perspective to the bout. In this bout, we have two talented fighters in Dan Hardy and Carlos Condit, but battlegrounds play heavily into this bout and into the favor of Hardy. While Condit has made his career off of his matwork; most notably his bottom game submissions, he faces an opponent who he can’t realistically place in said positions. This leaves a bout of striking and clinch work, both of which heavily favor the iron jaw and accurate punching of Hardy over the hot and cold Condit. Simply put, Condit lacks the firepower and size to do much to Hardy standing, and lacks the wrestling to put this fight onto the mat like Hardy’s previous opponents. With early numbers having Hardy at -160, this is a fight worth betting on, as it would make an excellent anchor for this event.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

I'm throwing something down on Bisping to win by submission at +1500.

In 22 fights, Bisping has only win three fights with legitimate submissions (I'm not counting submission-via-strikes) and none of those have come against UFC level competition. Considering that Akiyama is himself an expert grappler, it would have to be something like +4000 or better for me to even consider it.

Also, I would not look to the Leben fight for guidance. Leben has always had an underrated grappling/sub game.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Akiyama was also on the verge of a heart attack against Leben.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

I doubt he will gas as hard this time. Leben is constantly bringing it forward, that is tiring. Guys always gas when they fight Leben. Look how hard Aaron Simpson gassed against Leben. Bisping doesn't bring that kind of pressure. Akiyama only gasses, IMO, if Bisping tries to take him down a lot. Bisping has surprising wrestling, and he has been going to it more.

[ctm0808]

Re: UFC 120 England Oct 16th

Also, I would not look to the Leben fight for guidance. Leben has always had an underrated grappling/sub game.

I agree that his grappling is underrated, but I still think the Leben fight is significant.

If a very tired & sweaty zombie Leben can submit Akiyama, I could see a still fresh Bisping actively looking for submissions if he was losing. If Akiyama doesn't get tired at all, then yeah, more like +4000 for Bisping via sub.