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Mir drops 60 points to -199
Lytle goes up to -141
Dunham drops 30 points to -169
Guillard drops 40 points to -110
Mitrione goes up 50 points to -196!
Lowe up to -150 from -110
And Hunt drops another 20 points to go to -175
^^^ First off, welcome to the forum. I don't believe I've greeted you yet. Where are my manners?
Now with that said, I would certainly be tempted to get on Dunham at anything under -200. I've already got my bet on Sherk though, and that's where I intend to stand, win or lose.
Guillard dropping doesn't really surprise me, though. What's really surprising is that money didn't come in on Stephens immediately. I actually favor him in this fight. I THINK this will take place mostly on the feet and Stephens is gonna win a decision much like he did against Stout. But I do think it's pretty evenly matched, so who knows. But at +140, where the line hovered forever? Stephens.
Yeah, I'd stay right where you are with the Sherk play. I'd be on him myself, but I'm 0-2 betting against damned Evan Dunham, so I just can't do it again. Rooting for Sherk though, hopefully he'll pull off the UD.. I've actually been considering throwing something on o2.5 rounds at -262. I don't really see a way this doesn't go the distance.
The line movements make sense, I just thought it was weird for them to all go crazy at once like that. Like you said, Stephens has been at +140 for a long time now, Lowe has been at a pick 'em since the line came out.. I have seen very few people betting on either of their opponents, and the line had stayed where it was til today. I personally like Guillard at -110, but I'm not touching that fight!
And Mir was just steadily climbing and climbing until that sudden 60 point drop to -200.
I'm actually in the opposite boat with Dunham. I made some money with him in both the Escudero and Griffin fights. But I'm just not sure about this one. I think Dunham wins. Sherk CANNOT strike with him and expect to win. And I am actually not sure that Sherk can wrestle with him either and not get in trouble after seeing what Dunham did to Griffin. I got my fingers crossed, though. I've always thought Sherk was pretty cool and I'd like to see him get back on track here.
As for the fight going the distance, yeah, I think that's pretty much a given.
Just watched Beltran/Alexander. Now that's a fine video, mostly due to the commentary of whoever was around the camera. There was such notable dialogue as this little gem:
"How did he win? TKO?"
"No, it was a submission . . . really? Yeah, TKO."
"You dumbass. I know there are different suspensions."
I'm kinda split. If I win some earlier bets I might put some money on sherk to win via Decision. Good odds on that. It could happen too if Sherk fights smart and tries to take him down. Dunham is really good but I'm not sold he is the next Champ or anything like that. He's but taken down quite a few times in his career so far. Sherk really hasn't..I think Sherk can power Dunham down, he is a little muscley dude.
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