UFC 119 Sept 25th

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Pulled the trigger
1u on lil Nog EV

.5u on Doerkson @ +195

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

My first reaction was that Bader would win, but I forgot that Bader loses steam after the first round in his fights. I think Lil Nog @+ odds is a gift from the Jason Brilz fight.


Any thoughts on Dunham/Sherk? I was hoping to get Dunham @+ odds, but that's not the case. Sherk might have value now though, but he is always injured, hasn't fought since UFC 98, is getting old, and probably just needs a paycheck right now.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Any thoughts on Dunham/Sherk? I was hoping to get Dunham @+ odds, but that's not the case. Sherk might have value now though, but he is always injured, hasn't fought since UFC 98, is getting old, and probably just needs a paycheck right now.

I like Sherk, but I think he loses this one. He's going to have problems with Dunham's length/size and I'm also losing faith in his wrestling. So if he can't outstrike Dunham . . . and he can't outwrestle him . . . what happens?

Let's see where the line goes. I think it's possible we'll be able to get Dunham at + odds, but the line could possibly go the other way as well.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

My first reaction was that Bader would win, but I forgot that Bader loses steam after the first round in his fights. I think Lil Nog @+ odds is a gift from the Jason Brilz fight.


Any thoughts on Dunham/Sherk? I was hoping to get Dunham @+ odds, but that's not the case. Sherk might have value now though, but he is always injured, hasn't fought since UFC 98, is getting old, and probably just needs a paycheck right now.

Sherk has been out too long and keeps getting reinjured. Sherk can probably put him on his back and avoid his submissions. I like the matchup for Sherk, and I think a healthy Sherk would win a top control special... but it will be 18 months between fights for him.

As for Nog, I don't think Bader brings anything that Brilz didn't bring except more power in his hands. Nog has more time to prepare this time too... Brilz came in on short notice... but his gameplan is always the same (get on top). I don't recall who Nog was supposed to fight, but I don't think it was a wrestler. I think it hurt Nog more than Brilz.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I don't recall who Nog was supposed to fight, but I don't think it was a wrestler.

Forrest

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I don't recall who Nog was supposed to fight, but I don't think it was a wrestler.

Forrest

Right. Totally different fight for Nog. Still, he should have been able to beat Brilz more easily.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

The way he looked against Brilz has me leery. i would be all over Him if he had a better performance.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

The way he looked against Brilz has me leery. i would be all over Him if he had a better performance.

I am the opposite. Had he loked good against Brilz, he would not be a dog here. He would have probably opened in the -200 range depending on how good he looked. I would not like him as a favorite.

[Svino]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Oooh boy. I feel like the odds on Little Nog are good, but this is precisely the kind of matchup where I never bet on the striking-and-jits guy. I'd be breaking a personal rule... but I'm tempted.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I am the opposite. Had he loked good against Brilz, he would not be a dog here. He would have probably opened in the -200 range depending on how good he looked. I would not like him as a favorite.

I would be ok with laying that had he took care of Brilz.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

1u on The Terror at +115.

Wonder where that line's gonna go. . .

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Anyone think Sherk's worth a play at +190.

As I said earlier in the thread, I think Dunham probably wins this one, but at the current odds it seems the value may be on Sherk.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^^ I think the value is with Sherk for sure. I would bet him but he has just been out too long for my taste. I don't liek betting guys coming off injury layoffs.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Anyone think Sherk's worth a play at +190.

As I said earlier in the thread, I think Dunham probably wins this one, but at the current odds it seems the value may be on Sherk.

I'd wait to see how he looks at weigh ins

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Thanks.

I went ahead and took him for .5u. I agree the layoff is troubling, as well as the fact that he just hasn't looked great in his last few matches, but I'm not taking Dunham at those odds.