UFC 119 Sept 25th

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

30U on Dunham @-200! There is no possible way that Dunham loses this fight! I see this fight as free money

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^ are you serious?

What about Sherk by top control?

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^ are you serious?

What about Sherk by top control?

I just dont see it happening. At all. I actually think that Dunham has a wrestling advantage, he is scrappy as hell and has way way better BJJ than sherk. Mix that with he reach, better boxing, and sherks ring rust I see a clear cut win for Dunham

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Sounds like Nick Diaz all over again.

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Sounds like Nick Diaz all over again.

What do you mean?

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Nick Diaz had more reach, better boxing, and better Jiu Jitsu than Sean Sherk. He lost a unanimous decision to Sherk too.

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Nick Diaz had more reach, better boxing, and better Jiu Jitsu than Sean Sherk. He lost a unanimous decision to Sherk too.

True but sherk has not evolved since those days he has stayed the same over the years while everyone around him has improved. I actually think that he is worse than he use to be.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

He still has cardio for days and wrestling enough to hold almost anyone down if he gets it to the ground.

[ManBoobKilla]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

He still has cardio for days and wrestling enough to hold almost anyone down if he gets it to the ground.

Try as you might guys but none of this scares me. I think Shrek is done for. He is very overrated

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

No one is trying to scare you, dude. Your going to bet what you want to bet regardless of what any or all of us says I would think. Whats done is done we're just offering some insight after the fact is all. That said good luck on the bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Yeah, not trying to scare you. I hope Dunham wins. But if not for Sherk's injuries and the fact that he had been out for a while, I would favor him.

Dunham's all around bjj is better for sure. But he is not going to submit Sherk. Sherk has some very solid guard passing skills (see Hermes Franca). I would put Sherk's wrestling ahead of Dunham's though, we disagree there.

He has only lost to champions (Edgar, Penn, Hughes and GSP). There is no shame in any of those losses. I think you are underestimating Sherk. I like Dunham too, but I think a healthy Sherk would beat him.

That said, I hope Dunham wins and I am not trying to scare you out of your bet. Liek Ludo said, this is a forum where we talk about our bets and why we should or should not make them.

I think Dunham is overvalued even for a regular sized bet. But Sherk will have been out a 16 months with injuries... this is too competitive a fight to come back to, and I think Dunham will get it done. But I would put him at like -130.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

You do have to agree with ManBoob that even before the long layoff Sherk seemed to be losing steam. You could see it in his matchup with Griffin. Age(and fights) catch up to fighters. Sherk has many fights, and has pushed his body to the limit for a long time, and I think the effects of that were being seen in his fights previous to this long layoff. I am not saying Sherk is done, just saying that IMO he is not the same fighter he was a few years ago.

Definite edge to Dunham with all factors considered, but at the current price I think that edge is basically priced in.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^^ I can agree with that, but he still mananged to beat Griffin and give a very competitive fight to Edgar. I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box. I think a lot of what we are seeing with Sherk is injury related though... which is why I say I would favor a healthy Sherk. The Sherk that fought Tyson will probably get beat. I do favor Dunham, but like you, I think the line is set about right all things considered, although I would still give Sherk a little more chance than teh line indicates. It is a no bet for me... and a 30u bet seems crazy (assuming 30u actually means something to Manboob in relation to his bankroll... I have seen a lot of guys just say "my unit is X dollars"--- that means nothing unless you have a defined bankroll). So when I see 30u, I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box.

I agree, though some say that Sherk COULDN'T take his most recent opponents down and that's why he didn't try, or he only tried a handful of times. When you consider it's BJ, Griffin, and Edgar we're talking about, that might be true. And if it is, will he be able to take Dunham down? It's definitely questionable.

I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

I agree.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

[quote=SPX]

I think a lot of Sherk's problems stem from his sudden desire to stand and box.

I agree, though some say that Sherk COULDN'T take his most recent opponents down and that's why he didn't try, or he only tried a handful of times. When you consider it's BJ, Griffin, and Edgar we're talking about, that might be true. And if it is, will he be able to take Dunham down? It's definitely questionable.

I usually assume at max a 100u bankroll... so to bet 30% of a total stake on this fight (or any fight) seems sort of insane.

I agree.[/quote:2s6ed1aj]

Against Edgar, Frankie was the one trying to get takedowns but Sherk stuffed him easily. Sherk did get Edgar down in his two takedown attempts, though Edgar got right back up on the first one and gave him teh second one for a guillotine attempt.

Against Griffin, he only attempted one takedown, and he got it.

I do not think Dunham can take Sherk down and I do think Sherk can take Dunham down. But I doubt Sherk will be able to hold him there and I question Sherk's gameplanning lately.