UFC 119 Sept 25th

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I have 1u on Nog too, I don't have a lot of confidence in it though... I think it will look a lot like the Brilz fight, which Nog won IMO. I don't think Nog subs him though... Lil Nog is really not a submission guy, he is more with the sweeps... he used deep half pretty well against Brilz. I just thought he would have more for Brilz in the striking. Lil Nog tends to look awesome sometimes and not great other times, but he usually gets it done. I think he will win it, but I can definitely see how Bader could steal some rounds by getting a few takedowns.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Nog just doesn't seem to have the best TDD. Shogun took him down at every attempt in there fight (I know his takedowns were trips or slams from the clinch, but still)...I think Bader is going to be able to take Nog down easily and control the fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I agree that Bader is going to have the takedowns when he wants them... I just disagree that he will be able to control him.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^^^^^^Thats kind of my thinking.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Yeah I'm back and forth on this one. Bader can get takedowns but control is definitely an issue. Also Bader hits hard but he was getting outstruck by Keith Jardine (until he threw a left hook and Jardine's chin was of course pulled directly in line with it by the combined forces of gravity and the Coriolis effect).

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I wish I didn't make the bet, because I think it is a close fight that could definitely go either way. So far though, I give Nog a striking edge and a grappling edge... but he might be behind on the scorecards because he will most likely be on bottom quite a bit.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

.. but he might be behind on the scorecards because he will most likely be on bottom quite a bit.

This is basically my reasoning for picking Bader. I still haven't made the bet yet.


Sherk is +200 right now and I feel that has some value, but I just don't see him even winning. I will probably end up betting on the overpriced Dunham.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Sherk can win a top control decision... It will probably be close in the striking, Sherk could win it there too. I think Sherk is undervalued. But the problem is that Sherk will have been out of the cage for like a decade.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I guess I am just underrating Sherk's striking. But now that I think about it, Griffin was tagging Dunham with his T rex arms, and Sherk outboxed Griffin. MMA Math FTW

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^ that was pretty much my thinking. Dunham has shown good power and decent hands, but he was getting just as much as he was giving from Griffin. Sherk is a badass. He has only lost to total world ruling studs. Edgar was his "bad loss" that took him down a notch. Turns out, Edgar can box a little. Sherk looked just as good against Edgar as BJ did. No shame in ANY of Sherk's losses. He has passed the guard and dominated better bjj players than Dunham. He has great takedowns in MMA, plenty enough to get Dunham down. He is immune to submissions and he has a rock for a chin. The only issue is his layoff.

I am probably still going to make a play on Sherk though because I think the line is way wrong.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I've already put .5u on Sherk. You're right about him only losing to the best of the best: GSP, Hughes, BJ, Edgar. It is amazing that in 38 fights that has only lost to 4 guys, all of whom were--or later became--UFC champions.

With that said, taking the lead from PP and getting MMAthematical up in here, his performance against Griffin was not nearly as dominant as Dunham's. It was actually a very close fight, while Dunham basically handled Griffin 80% of the way. I think that Sherk will primarily have problems with Dunham's height and length. I think that Dunham will be able to keep him at bay and if they do tie up, I actually think Dunham's going to get the better of the grappling exchanges, just as he did with Griffin and Escudero, both of whom are known as good wrestlers in their own right.

So yeah, .5u on Sherk. Hopefully he can pull it off. But if I can get Dunham at a better price, then I would take him.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

^^ I just think Sherk is one of the best guard passers in all of MMA. The way he controlled Hermes Franca on the mat was really impressive. But You are right, Dunham has proved to have really good jiu jitsu... I mean, he looked like a "next level" jiu jitsu guy in there with Griffin and to a lesser extent, Efrain (even though he subbed Efrain, he didn't just dominate him the way he did Tyson). I just think Sherk's grappling is really underrated, he is a really good technical guard passer.

I am not saying Dunham is not going to win, because he is obviously a stud and probably has him beat on the feet and on the mat... but 2:1 seems pretty ridiculous to me. I think it is a pickem... basically whether you think Sherk can control him on the mat. Of course, Sherk is one of the worst game planners in the world, so he might just stand and be 6 inches short on all his jabs.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

cro cop by 3 rounds dec. +519. This can happen.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

Speaking of Cro Cop, did anyone realize he's 5-1-1 in his last 7? I realize he's been fighting a ton of non-elite guys, but still, I was thinking he was like 3-4 or something like that.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 119 Sept 25th

I think this is Dunhams fight to lose at this point. Sherk has been out for over a year, hasn't been healthy in that time either. Dunham has the longer reach, better striking, and it looks like he has world beater type jiu jitsu. All that plus the fact that Sherk is indeed an absolutely horrible game planner makes this Evan Dunhams chance to prove he's ready for a top ten opponent. That said the line on Dunham is a bit high for My taste, unless it drops some I probably won't be betting it.