UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Alves should take this one.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

I'm pretty sure no one is saying that Alves sucks and is no good. Just that he is(might be) overrated.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Alves should take this one.

Yea he SHOULD. He is damn near a 3 to 1 fave.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

I was originally thinking I'd be on Alves up to -300, but at the current line I'm thinking it's probably a small play on Howard or nothing.

Is Alves going to have a bad weight cut? Will he get KOd by one of those super punches that Howard apparently has the ability to occasionally throw? Will Howard surprise us and win a decision via wrestling? Or will he win a decision by actually outstriking Alves? (sbjj has a point about Alves getting outstruck by Karo before the knockout.)

I don't know, but I might risk ~.35ish units to win one just in case. But at this point I will not bet Alves.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

I'm pretty sure no one is saying that Alves sucks and is no good. Just that he is(might be) overrated.

He might be, but still. Doomsday lost to McCrory AND Wilson, I don't care what the judges say. And Hallman was soundly beating him until Josh Rosenthal's inexplicable gift standup with 15 seconds left. The only fight he legitimately deserved to win was the Daniel Roberts KO. This guy shouldn't even be in the UFC.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

He might be, but still. Doomsday lost to McCrory AND Wilson, I don't care what the judges say. And Hallman was soundly beating him until Josh Rosenthal's inexplicable gift standup with 15 seconds left. The only fight he legitimately deserved to win was the Daniel Roberts KO. This guy shouldn't even be in the UFC.

I would've agreed before the Roberts KO and subsequent performance against Ellenberger. Even though it was a loss, he was handling Ellenberger pretty good on the feet (clearly winning in that department) and wasn't doing terrible on the ground either. If nothing else, he was able to make Ellenberger look like shit in victory, which neither Condit nor Pyle were able to do.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Yeah ZY is correct. I looked up the play by plays for all his fights. He barely wins against some lower tier guys. I don't know if he will have a great shot at outwrestling Thiago though, Koscheck couldn't do it. I am not an expert on striking but Alves seems to better to me. I would at least wait until the weigh ins, see how Alves looks.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

What do you guys think about Stevenson/Danzig? I really like Stevenson here, but I am hesitant to take him @ -300.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

What do you guys think about Stevenson/Danzig? I really like Stevenson here, but I am hesitant to take him @ -300.

I'm thinking hard about this one, too. Stevenson's no world beater. But then again, he's fighting . . . Danzig.

Stevenson always does good against guys who aren't champs, ex-champs, or possible future champs (with the exception of Josh Neer). But he's beat Spencer Fisher, Diaz, Pellegrino, Guillard. . . And lost to G-Sot, Penn, Florian, and Neer in the UFC.

Granted, Danzig has mostly just lost to some pretty tough guys (Guida, Neer, Miller) and has caught some tough breaks (Wiman), but his best win is probably Mark Bocek.

In any case, Danzig is fighting for his life here and he knows it. It's hard to know how that's going to affect his game.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

In any case, Danzig is fighting for his life here and he knows it. It's hard to know how that's going to affect his game.

Danzig was also "fighting for his life" @ UFC 109 against Buchholz and it was a closer fight then most would expect IIRC. I really think Stevenson will be able to stick to Danzig like glue and control him. Guida did it, Miller did it, Bocek even did it before he gassed. I also think Stevenson has the advantage in the striking.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Danzig was also "fighting for his life" @ UFC 109 against Buchholz and it was a closer fight then most would expect IIRC. I really think Stevenson will be able to stick to Danzig like glue and control him. Guida did it, Miller did it, Bocek even did it before he gassed. I also think Stevenson has the advantage in the striking.

Yeah, his fight at 109 was a loser leaves town fight. And the first round was pretty close, but Danzig pulled away in the second and even got the stoppage.

But yeah, I do think Stevenson will win. I will probably bet him, actually. I just hope the line doesn't get worse between now and the time I make that decision.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Yeah, his fight at 109 was a loser leaves town fight. And the first round was pretty close, but Danzig pulled away in the second and even got the stoppage.

No he didn't. Danzig won a 29-28 decision. Here is the play by play:

JUSTIN BUCHHOLZ VS. MAC DANZIG

Round 1 - Referee Herb Dean calls the fight.Buchholz leaps after Danzig with a kick. Danzig returns and catchesBuchholz with a right hand. Danzig follows with a leg kick. Danzig dances into a leg kick.Buchholz misses with punches and a high kick.Buchholz throwing a lot but little is landing. Danzig chases in an misses a takedown and subsequent punch. Superman punch misses fromBuchholz.Buchholz with a body kick. Danzig with straight right. The two lock up in the clinch and trade shots.Buchholz misses with a follow up kick. Danzig lands a left hook. Then a jab. Danzig follows a missed punch combo with a leg kick.Buchholz charges in with punches and gets nothing. Then suddenly,Buchholz catches him with a shot that rattles him.Buchholz swarms in as Danzig covers up, but Danzig regains composure and escapes.Buchholz with a nice lead hook. A body shot and hook land forBuchholz in an exchange. Danzig with straight right and leg kick.Buchholz corners a covered up Danzig. Nothing lands. Danzig charges back and lands a body shot. Danzig locks in the clinch and lands a knee before breaking off. A lead right hand for Danzig follows. The two clinch against the cage.Buchholz locks in a clinch but can't do any damage. Busy, busy round. MMAjunkie.com scores the round 10-9 for Danzig.

Round 2 - Danzig eats a jab as he comes in with one of his own. Danzig lands a hook and leg kick before shooting in for the takedown. He can't get the single leg and the two clinch against the cage. Buchholz breaks off. Danzig with right hook. He attempts to follow with body kick but catches a few punches. Danzig shoots in and gets an easy double leg. From side mount, he throws elbows and gets knee on belly position. He transitions briefly to mount before Buchholz gets half-guard back. Buchholz works for a kimura and cranks away but Danzig doesn't seem too concerned. He's muscling out of it. But as Danzig attempts to put his knee on Buchholz's arm, Buchholz cranks it. Danzig adjusts and takes side mount. He transitions to full mount and takes Buchholz's back in the scramble. Buchholz keeps scrambling though, and Danzig fights unsuccessfully for an armbar in transition. Buchholz takes Danzig's guard and fights off elbows and Sakuraba punches to his head. Danzig reverses and pounds away at Buccholz as the round comes to an end. MMAjunkie.com scores the round 10-9 Danzig. Dean gives Danzig a warning for the elbows to the head.

Round 3 - Danzig punches in with a hook and a body kick and drags Buchholz to the mat. Buchholz stands and fires back with punches to get Danzig off him. Danzig eats a few punches as he advances. Danzig with body shot. Buchholz with a straight right. Buchholz clinches and the two go to the cage. Danzig reverses and tries to shoulder throw Buchholz to the mat. He's unsuccessful and ends up on bottom with Buchholz in his guard. Danzig sits up and hammers away at Buchholz's ears. Danzig sits up and throws rabbit punches until Dean stands them up. He catches Buchholz with an uppercut and a punch-kick combination but can't hurt Buchholz enough before an escape. Danzig with a nick body shot combo and hook to the head. Danzig takes the fight down and pounds away in half guard before taking Buchholz's back in transition. Buchholz rolls and Danzig gets mount. Danzig hints at an armbar and takes Buchholz's back in the final ten seconds. He's a hair away from the choke, but settles for pounding at Buchholz's sides to close out the fight. MMAjunkie.com scores the round 10-9 for Danzig. All three judges score the bout 29-28 for Mac Danzig. Mac Danzig def. Justin Buchholz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

[SPX]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Oh, my bad. For some reason I thought he choked him out in the second.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Oh, my bad. For some reason I thought he choked him out in the second.

Yeah, I think I will end up betting Stevenson for sure. If the line stays stagnant this week I will be able to get them cheaper than -300 because of the 5dimes reduced juice

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Stevenson should win that for sure. I will consider Stevenson by decision for better odds... that fight is going to the cards.