UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

I am thinking about trying out a magic prop parlay this weekend. Here are the lines

Well, they are working out fabulously for me. Wait until Friday though, you need the KO/TKO and submission props to make it work. A couple of things I have learned: Hedge it a little if you also have money on a guy straight up; it is better to have 5 things that are NOT going to happen in this world (like Grove subbing Maia) than 3 things that probably won't happen.

I am going to do a couple for this event.

I am thinking:

Not Kos by submission/Not Grant by submission/Not Danzig ITD and maybe one more like not Doerkson by submission. Not sure about the Danzig bet... I will just have to see how the lines are. If I can get the whole thing under -400, I am happy

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

I doubt you will get the not Grant by sub prop because it is a prelim. I am thinking about making a decent sized bet on Struve, but hedging it out a little with McCorkle by (T)KO. That is his only way to win imo

[Luke]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

What your win/loss record so far on "magic" parlays ?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

^ I didn't realize it was a prelim.

Re Struve: the heavier the weight class, the fewer decisions there are. Only 23% of HW fights go to the cards. http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/10/1/17 ... ight-class

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

What your win/loss record so far on "magic" parlays ?

I did it at micro stakes for several months, just testing it. I have lost a couple, "Not Rampage by decision" got me at UFC 123, but I had Rampage by decision @ +1650, so I broke even anyway. But the only reason I hedged it was because I also had a flat bet on Machida too... I would have lost that one had it not been for the flat bet.

I also lost a micro stakes one when I first started testing it, I don't recall what the prop was though, another decision I am pretty sure.

I have won way more than that though, record is probably about 12-2 or so... but they are not even money, probably average about -250 or -300. So being 12-2 is really only about a bet or 2 ahead. But I feel like I am getting better at it, I am going less with the "Not X by decision..." As I don't feel that can really be foreseen... and because the judges will screw you. More with "Not X ITD" and "Not X by submission" and "fight goes the distance" as I think these are easier to predict.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

^^^ cool, was just wondering

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Why do you feel struve will win?

[Johnny Unreliable]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Staying away from betting against Mccorckle after convincing myself that he would gas against Hunt. Think its about a toss up. Far too many questions remaining.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Yeah Struve has a rough stand up game but he is a good all around fighter. We don't know much about McCorkle other than he started out doing jiu jitsu and he has really heavy hands.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

3u on Struve

[Thewiseman]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Kos by KO/TKO .1u to win 1u
Stevenson/Danzig goes the disatance 1.6u to win 1u

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Koscheck by tko @ +1075 is a great deal...just threw 0.2u on it

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

GSP by decision is + odds. I think that is the most likely outcome. He didn't threaten to finish Kocheck last time.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

Does anybody think miller will beat oliveira?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 124: GSP vs. Koscheck II to take place in Montreal

^^Funny you should ask. I have been looking at this fight all morning. I did not realize that Miller's only losses were to Edgar and Maynard. Oliveira is a question mark, as he has looked impressive against his competition, but Efrain took a round from him and was mostly winning the ground battle until Oliveira finally got on top.

On the flip side, Miller lost rounds to Danzig and Tibau just grappling. Miller got saved by the bell against Danzig. He would have been submitted if there were 10 more seconds in that round. Oliveira has an active guard game and looks tough to control. Oliveira should also have a standup edge with his leg kicks.

Bottom line, I still think it is close, but I would probably give a slight edge to Oliveira just because he has more ways to win it. But Miller could win a top control decision.