Cage Warriors 38 10/1

[poopoo333]

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

3.7u on Grecicho to win 2u


Grecicho is 8-2, and 7 of his wins are by sub. He is a 2x gold medalist in the World Sambo Championships. All of Young's losses are by sub. He only has two wins over guys with winning records, and only one of these guys can be considered decent (Abdul Mohamed) and his win was by majority decision. Young is fighting out of England, which also indicates he will be at the grappling disadvantage.


I am also leaning toward Hecht to beat Mills. Mills has lost all of his fights by sub except for a decision loss (to a BB in Judo, so a grappler). He obviously has problems with grapplers, his best wins are against Marius Zaromskis. Hecht is a HIT squad fighter and a college wrestler, so you know he will have the wrestling advantage, and we have seen what that means lately. He used to be apart of ATT as well. He was a 2002 golden gloves champ (I know Scientist, this probably doesn't mean anything). But unless Mills is some kind of awesome striker with great TDD, I think Hecht will win. @-115, I think Hecht will be worth a bet.

Rosfort-Nees/Veach=I don't know. Rosfort looks like he is a pretty good striker:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3g1uA_lk1Q4

Veach is a short compact midget who I can see being picked apart from the outside. Veach has the wrestling edge, but he gasses quick. He was also dominated by Paul Kelly, who has trouble with grapplers.

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I guess people agree with me on Hecht, he is up to -140 on 5dimes now. darn

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Thanks Poopoo. I looked at Veach/Nees, and decided to pass. But I like your assessments on the other 2. How did Gregich lose his 2 fights?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I am going to ride with you on Grecicho. I looked at Young and saw Grecicho's takedowns... I think he probably has this in the bag pretty easy. Young doesn't even sound like he thinks he can win: http://www.eastsideboxing.com/forum/sho ... p?t=257552

2u on Grecicho for now. Might add another 2u in a minute. Looks like an opportunity at the current line.

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Thanks Poopoo. I looked at Veach/Nees, and decided to pass. But I like your assessments on the other 2. How did Gregich lose his 2 fights?

Both of them were by armbar, back in 2006 against guys who have almost all subs as their wins.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I can't see any holes in this fight... raising my bet to 5u on Grecicho. He has good takedowns... a good chin.

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Watching some of Che Mills and:

-His first fight against Zaromski, he was taken down twice and controlled. He was able to pull off some reversals off the cage and get into good position, but he lost them pretty quick. Zaromski isn't a wrestler, so I am sure Mills won't be able to do that as easily against Hecht. Mills won in the first round by KO, but he was losing the entire fight but then he caught a head kick and landed something I couldn't really see that KOd Zaromski (I think it was a kick of his own).

-Mills had a really impressive win over a 3-11 guy. Who cares

-Mills is really not a good grappler at all. It seems like most of the time he gets a takedown is if another shitty grappler is pushing him against the cage, Mills seems to just power out, and he ALWAYS seems to land in mount, but can never do anything, he is always reversed and he ends up on his back afterwards. The only time I saw him capitalize from actually falling into mount is when the guy immediately gave up his back and got RNC'd.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

He also lost to bjj artist James Wilks on a TUF eliminator fight.

I think it is a good play, assuming Hecht has at least passable striking defense and gas. What do we know about Hecht?

[poopoo333]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

He also lost to bjj artist James Wilks on a TUF eliminator fight.

I think it is a good play, assuming Hecht has at least passable striking defense and gas. What do we know about Hecht?

I know that he didn't make the cut on TUF 9 with his tryouts or whatever, but I read people saying that he should have been on the show and would have done better then most of the Americans. I only watched one vid of Hecht last night and he was able to take his opponent down and control him on the mat against the cage (I forgot who he was fighting)

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

^ Making it into the TUF house is more about personality than fighting ability. Unless he lost an eliminator to get into the house, in which case, I would like to know who beat him.

There is a lot of video on Grecicho, which is why I like that play A LOT. I am less enthused about the Hecht bet, because Mills has a very clear way to win, he has good hands, and we don't know much about Hecht. But, he'll probably win.

I have been playing around with the IF bets and stuff a little on 5dimes. I think I am going to start doing some small 2 fight parlays to get out of my slump. I am just increasing volatility, but I did really well with that locks parlay until I lost it and bet it all on Sokodjou.

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I have been playing around with the IF bets and stuff a little on 5dimes.

I've seen "if" bets on Bodog and have never know what they are. Enlighten me. . .

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

I've seen "if" bets on Bodog and have never know what they are. Enlighten me. . .

It is basically a parlay, but you can take down part of your bet... it is not an all or nothing proposition.

For example, I could bet $100 of Hecht @ Even... Then IF that wins, I could take that $100 in winnings and let it play on Grecicho @ -200... then IF that wins, I could let that play on Veach.

The difference between the IF bets and a parlay is a parlay is all or nothing. If you lose 1 bet, you wipe out your entire bet. With an IF bet, you can vary the bet sizes, so if you win the first bet, you can still make profit on the bet series.

So you could do a 3 fight IF series... if you win the first bet, you can take half of your winnings down, and just let the other half ride on both of the subsequent bets. So you guarantee a profit on the series if the first fight wins. Then you can still shoot for the moon on the rest of the series. It is basically a parlay though, but you can choose your bet sizes

[SPX]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation. I might have to try it once or twice just to do it.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Cage Warriors 38 10/1

^^ well, if you do parlays, I like it better. Just because I don't like to lose my entire bet if a bet in the parlay loses.

It is nothing you can't do manually... but I am not around most of the time on fight nights, so it is hard for me to manage my bets in game... so I playing around with doing some 2-3 fight parlays to break out of my slump.