Slump buster

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

SPX, I am sorry dude, but I believe your philosophy is extremely flawed. There is a reason that NO good cappers bet huge faves.

You lost me as soon as I finished this pair of sentences.

I know pro gamblers personally. Like, genuinely pro-gamblers, not peeps like us who do it on the side, but rather guys who make an actual living out of it.

Many do the exact opposite of what you're pontificating about. There's one who actually posted here briefly (UKdonkbet) who utilized a common system among pros where he would borrow money from other bankrolls so he could put HUGE bets on big faves (like 30 units on big favorites who are virtually guaranteed to win). To say that no serious or professional gamblers bet on big favorites is just asinine. Quite frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. It's that simple.

LOL, I do it for a living SPX...And have been for over 10 years. These guys you speak of are most certainly fictitious. I know this for a fact. I lived in Vegas for 5 years and damn near lived in the sportsbooks, and I saw plenty of these guys you talk about leave Vegas broke because they could not control themselves. If your system worked, everyone would do it, there would be no need to even think about a bet...just bet those big faves because they are bound to win.

LOL @ betting 30 units on a big fave. So you bet 30 units to win 3 to 5 units...Do you even realize how absurd that is.

[poopoo333]

Re: Slump buster

LOL, I do it for a living SPX...And have been for over 10 years. These guys you speak of are most certainly fictitious. I know this for a fact. I lived in Vegas for 5 years and damn near lived in the sportsbooks, and I saw plenty of these guys you talk about leave Vegas broke because they could not control themselves. If your system worked, everyone would do it, there would be no need to even think about a bet...just bet those big faves because they are bound to win.

LOL @ betting 30 units on a big fave. So you bet 30 units to win 3 to 5 units...Do you even realize how absurd that is.

1. What else do you bet besides MMA/Boxing?
2. So all you do for a living is gamble? If so, I idolize you.
3. If you don't mind me asking, on average, what is your yearly profit?
4. How much money did you have to invest @ the start of your "career" to be able to net in such big profits to make a living over time?

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

I bet a lot of fights where I find the "value", and save my "bigger bets" for things I am pretty sure of. Lately, only a few of my "value bets" come through, but the things I am sure of have been losing seemingly EVERYTIME in the last month and a half or so: Varner, Dunham, Florian, Pearson, and the "sambo guy" from Cage Rage over the weekend.

I was thinking about going to a temporary 20u bankroll, but that does not fit my "betting style". If I were to go to a 20u bankroll, I would not bet nearly as many fights, and I would only bet fights @ reasonable lines that I was "sure of". BUT, look at the above. In the past month and a half, my "sure of bets" since September were what you read in the above paragraph plus Warren (who could have easily lost in round 1) and Ryan Bader. That would have been a 2-5 run in one month, and with a 20u bank roll that would have wiped me right out. Before September, I was doing pretty well with my many fractional unit "value bets" plus my somewhat of an "anchor bet" with the fights I was "sure of". Would this style of betting be better with a 100u bank roll? Or should I stick to my 50u bank roll and just realize I am in a typical slump and get over it?

PooPoo, that just looks like a bad luck slump to me. None of those bets were way out there faves and you got screwed on Dunham. I also bet Pearson(small bet) and right after I made the bet i felt shitty about it because of the price.

One thing i am going to start doing with MMA that I was doing with boxing is...take the Varner and Florian bets. They were both facing guys that were pretty elite fighters themselves. Many boxing cappers subscribe to the idea that when you get 2 fighters who both look like the same class, do not overthink it(stylewise, etc), just take the dog. think about it. The reason you took Florian and Varner(even though they were both 2 to 1 faves) was because you probably thought they had a favorable style match up. instaed of thinking....hey, they are fight quality opponents who should not be such dogs. sometimes i think we may overthink some of these bets.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

LOL, I do it for a living SPX...And have been for over 10 years. These guys you speak of are most certainly fictitious. I know this for a fact. I lived in Vegas for 5 years and damn near lived in the sportsbooks, and I saw plenty of these guys you talk about leave Vegas broke because they could not control themselves. If your system worked, everyone would do it, there would be no need to even think about a bet...just bet those big faves because they are bound to win.

LOL @ betting 30 units on a big fave. So you bet 30 units to win 3 to 5 units...Do you even realize how absurd that is.

1. What else do you bet besides MMA/Boxing?
2. So all you do for a living is gamble? If so, I idolize you.
3. If you don't mind me asking, on average, what is your yearly profit?
4. How much money did you have to invest @ the start of your "career" to be able to net in such big profits to make a living over time?

[Luke]

Re: Slump buster

I'm going to have to agree with SBJJ no serious professional gambler bets huge favorites all the time .

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

I'm going to have to agree with SBJJ no serious professional gambler bets huge favorites all the time .

That's fine. You, also, can carry on, not knowing what the fuck you're talking about.

[poopoo333]

Re: Slump buster

I'm going to have to agree with SBJJ no serious professional gambler bets huge favorites all the time .

That's fine. You, also, can carry on, not knowing what the fuck you're talking about.

[zY|]

Re: Slump buster

I'm going to have to agree with SBJJ no serious professional gambler bets huge favorites all the time .

That's fine. You, also, can carry on, not knowing what the fuck you're talking about.

Relax, homie.

[Luke]

Re: Slump buster

I'm going to have to agree with SBJJ no serious professional gambler bets huge favorites all the time .

That's fine. You, also, can carry on, not knowing what the fuck you're talking about.

I swear you are so clueless sometimes X. You've gambled for barley 2 years

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

I swear you are so clueless sometimes X. You've gambled for barley 2 years

I've been an astronaut for 0 years, but that doesn't mean I can't tell you something about going to the moon.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

PooPoo, I was able to do this because of an investment that paid of big. i started playing poker and betting boxing-MMA for a living. stopped the poker as it started to feel like a job.

this might be my worst year. i am up a couple of grand, but have had a couple of deaths in the family, and have not been able to get to vegas as much as I have needed to.

i firmly believe that there are a half dozen bets a year that are easy money around the moderate fave to moderate dog area. i try to hit those fights. Marquez over Vazquez was my last big bet. i pocketed over 6 K on that fight. Velazquez will be my next big bet. A lot of these 1 and 2 unit bets I make on the smaller fights are just my online money.

My best year was over 100K. 1 fight that year I pulled in 16K on one fight. But keep in mind, i do not need much to keep up my lifestyle...i have very few bills, i have a house payment, and a timeshare payment(I know). No car payments and no credit card payments. I just try to average around 50 to 60K a year. i will be lucky to pull in 15K this year. my wife works part time and gets kick ass benefits, so we have everything we need.

[Luke]

Re: Slump buster

Whatever dude,any long time gambler knows what me and Sbjj are talking about .I could careless if you believe us or not.

[Svino]

Re: Slump buster

That is a very simplistic way of looking at it. While your post is true. It does not take into consideration the fact that you can still hit a very unlucky streak at anytime. Lets say you lose your first -500 fave. You are down right off the bat 500.00. So now you are looking for the next can not lose bet to win some of that lost money. So you find your next can not miss -500 fave to bet. BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO BET 2500.00 to get back your 500.00 you lost. What happens if you lose that next bet? Are you honestly going to say that it can not happen? I have seen it happen SO MANY TIMES...I saw plenty of these guys you talk about leave Vegas broke because they could not control themselves.

The problem you're identifying isn't betting on favorites, it's sizing your bets like a crazy-man and not being able to control yourself. Someone like that is going down eventually regardless. What you're describing is just a version of a Martingale system. As I said above, of course you'll go bust doing that; bet sizes need to go down after a loss. If you have a $10k bankroll and lose a $500 bet, your next bet for the same type of wager should be $475, not $2500.

There is one very good reason to be cautious about betting on heavy favs, and that is you could be off on your estimate. If you bet into -700 odds assuming a guy has a 90% chance of winning, but he really has an 80% chance, you're making a horrible bet (worse than if you made a similar mistake at lower odds). So is it possible then, in a sport where "anything can happen" to make an actual solid prediction of a 90% outcome? I'm very much convinced that it is, though it is probably less common than a lot of bettors might be tempted to think. The Couture / Toney fight I mentioned is one example. At some of the odds given, a 30 U bet would have been perfectly reasonable, or at least, certainly a better wager than 0 U.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

^^ bingo.

Value can be found on either side of the line. SPX has that right...

You might not know any gamblers that do it that way, but it is because of bankroll management, not that there is is some magic to underdogs. If you can manage your bankroll and not fly off the handle, you can get an edge at any line. It is just easier to manage your bets when you are betting dogs. That's it.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

MMA, that is the danger of betting heavy faves. Everyone says that they do fine betting them until....the end. And the end is that rare time where your 3 or 4 big faves all lose. All of a sudden, you are down a third to a half of your bankroll. And when (most) dudes chase to win back some of their losses...They will most certainly look to chase by betting....more big faves(the cant lose fights). I am pretty sure that you realize the mistakes you have made recently. And i am just not sure you need to do a complete redo of your betting.

As we have discussed before, we disagree on the favorites issue. As bad as I have made it sound, I am still up a considerable amount for the year, more than 50% (which only amounts to a few grand for me).

I have not lost a lot when I stick to my original plan... the problem is that I do not follow my own advice. I took a big hit, not because I bet on favorites and lost, but because I went on tilt and made bets I had no business making, and that I actually warned everyone else NOT to make.

I certainly understand and appreciate the favorites betting style. But for me, that has its own problems. Namely, patience. Sometimes I can go several months just sort of breaking even with the small bets...

Bottom line, the favorites aren't the problem, I am the problem.