Slump buster

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

I was thinking about going to a temporary 20u bankroll, but that does not fit my "betting style". If I were to go to a 20u bankroll, I would not bet nearly as many fights, and I would only bet fights @ reasonable lines that I was "sure of". BUT, look at the above. In the past month and a half, my "sure of bets" since September were what you read in the above paragraph plus Warren (who could have easily lost in round 1) and Ryan Bader. That would have been a 2-5 run in one month, and with a 20u bank roll that would have wiped me right out. Before September, I was doing pretty well with my many fractional unit "value bets" plus my somewhat of an "anchor bet" with the fights I was "sure of". Would this style of betting be better with a 100u bank roll? Or should I stick to my 50u bank roll and just realize I am in a typical slump and get over it?

You really should have 100u IMO. But when you are building, 50u is enough to protect against the risk of ruin, and still allow you to build your bankroll. 20u is just not enough IMO.

The anchor bet system is extremely common, and I know a lot of guys who bet that way. I personally like that method, and think 50u is plenty while you are building. Once you get to an amount that you feel you need to protect, I would go to 100u.

I was playing with a 100u bankroll, until life intervened and I had to cash out. Now I am back to my 50u bankroll. For me, I am not particularly worried about losing a few grand... I get pissed not because of the money, but just because I made mistakes.

Once I nail down the optimal betting strategy for me and my personality, I will start dumping more money in.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

The bottom line is...no serious capper bets these big faves you guys are talking about. None of them. If you find yourself betting them, then you are not a serious capper...It is that plain and simple. There is a reason that NO ONE bets like this in any sport, because in the long run it will fail you. Do any of the best sports cappers have money line picks on faves in the -400 range?

If some of you continue to do it, I am VERY confident you will eventually get your ass kicked by it. I have not been on this site for very long, and have already seen it burn a few dudes in here.

I am not talking about betting 2 or 3 big faves a year. but if you see yourself continually betting -400 and up guys because they are sure things, I honestly believe you have a problem. That is like going to the roulette wheel and covering 30 of the 38 numbers because you are bound to win.


Take the Couture bet. Looking back it is easy to say we all should have layed our entire bankroll on him. But we know that now. If BJ would have beat the shit out of Edgar the first fight like he did to Kenny, Sherk, and Diego we would have said the same thing about that fight.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

Here's the exact PM that I received from UK. We were talking about the size of his bankroll (which is huge and much larger that 100 units) and the fact that he bet a lot of big favorites.

FWIW

Sorry I'm just now getting back to you on this.

I don't just bet MMA, I bet football, basketball, MMA, and hockey. I basically tail others on hockey and NBA basketball. Tail meaning I buy picks from pro bettors on the sport for a percentage and tailor my picks according to their picks. MMA and hockey and NCAA basketball I follow my own analysis. In each sport I have a different bank roll. I have atleast a 100u in each sport but I have way more in MMA and basketball.

Now to answer your question, when a fight happens where like Brown/Cheesesteak and there is crazy value even at -650, I will pull funds out of my poker account to add to my MMA bet. I will take 8% of MMA roll and then add whatever I feel like I can til I reach max value for the fight. So I had 8% of my roll on the fight and the other units where pulled from somewhere else. I learned this from the guy who watches my sports betting accounts. Its an old boxing bettors trick. to have seperate rolls and to pull from others when a value fight happens.

Granted if its not BJ, Brown, Aldo, ANderson Silva, Mousasi, orust an extremely off-line fight like JDS/Gilbert or Couture/Coleman I will NOT do this. I used to keep up with what I have made from these -600 or over bets I have made after I lost 25u on GSP/Serra 1. But I'm so much in the black I quit keeping up. MMA is such a new sport that lines aren't nearly what they should be, and I'm trying to keep the most value I can while the line is weak. I have 40u on GSP at -490 for instance.

My roll isn't exactly 500u anymore, bc I increased my unit size. But the last four MMA cards I atleast made 4.5u so I will prob be increasing my unit size again by UFC 114 or hopefully sooner like Sengoku 12 would be the soonest I could do it prob.

me and CGAD actaully had a simiular discussion the other day. He was talking w/an experienced sports bettor and the guy was telling CGAD that making these "30u on -650 line" bets were the only way to go. The only sure fire way to make +EV. My life is gambling, poker is my number one job. Being a poker coach and the $ I make off betting is about equal. So to me and my friends who gamble for their livings also, its not uncommon to make these types of bets. For the most part on this forum people are just building their roles and just started watching MMA or betting on MMA. So thats why I always say 1u should be 1 or 2% of your rolls bc that is the ONLY way you can build your roll. I had to do it that way, and I have the flexibility now to take +EV 'risks'. This is also why I always say every parlay is dead money. Sports gamblers don't have the parlay in their voc. Its actually very ridiculous. I know forums if you mention the word parlay you get a week ban. Bc to them, you are not taking what they do to survive seriously. I hope this helped and not confused you more.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

The bottom line is...no serious capper bets these big faves you guys are talking about. None of them. If you find yourself betting them, then you are not a serious capper...It is that plain and simple..

We disagree. I think no serious capper will pass up a value play at any odds range.

If some of you continue to do it, I am VERY confident you will eventually get your ass kicked by it. I have not been on this site for very long, and have already seen it burn a few dudes in here...

Been here nearly a year, and I have seen just as many guys bust out betting dogs. It is an issue of bankroll management, not the line you bet.

I am not talking about betting 2 or 3 big faves a year. but if you see yourself continually betting -400 and up guys because they are sure things, I honestly believe you have a problem. That is like going to the roulette wheel and covering 30 of the 38 numbers because you are bound to win..

Well if the pay out on the roullette wheel was 38:1 instead of the 35:1 that would be an awesome bet, and you would be a millionaire in a matter of months. I think you are confusing the issue of betting too much for your bankroll with betting on favorites.

The bottom line is that if you can bet -400 favorites and win more than 80% of your bets, you have an edge and you will make money... I don't see how you can't see this.

You keep throwing your antecdotes (which conflict with my experiences with pros btw) as evidence. But the bottom line is that the math is simple... win more than the line says you should.

Take the Couture bet. Looking back it is easy to say we all should have layed our entire bankroll on him. But we know that now. If BJ would have beat the shit out of Edgar the first fight like he did to Kenny, Sherk, and Diego we would have said the same thing about that fight.

No one said we should bet the bankroll on him, again, just because you bet a favorite, does not mean you have to bet too much. I have a firm 5u cap on any bet. I never bet more than 5% on any fight (10% in the 50u building stage)... I don't always have to bet to win a certain amount. Personally, I have always had a -400 cap... but it is not magic. There is nothing wrong with -600 bets, if you set your line higher than that. I just choose not to make them.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

I agree with everything you said, Scientist. . .

It's really just a simple issue of math. Provided you have a bankroll largest to handle the swings, then you will come out ahead in the long run provided you bet with an edge, regardless of the line. . .

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

Wow, it looks like we will just disagree. It is hard for me to come to grips with this. As I really know no one who takes this seriously who bets such long lines like this. It seems this is a hobby for most in here, so i kind of understand. But I can assure you that those who do this for a living pretty much stay clear of this big faves.

That guy that SPX posted is probably bust right now. He lost 25 units on GSP, so he loaded up double on the rematch to win back 10 units...Priceless. If GSP lost the rematch he would be down damn near 75 units. And this guy is a PRO? The fact that this guy even bet a fight(GSP-Serra 1) that was damn near -1000 shows me he really does not trust his capping judgement and is just looking for the mobs percieved value of a sure thing.

Some of you keep talking about the value. There is a big difference in a guy that has value @ -180 and a guy that has value @ -650. You are still risking so much more of your bankroll for such a small payout...That is part of money management and more importantly common sense.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

The bottom line is...no serious capper bets these big faves you guys are talking about. None of them. If you find yourself betting them, then you are not a serious capper...It is that plain and simple..

We disagree. I think no serious capper will pass up a value play at any odds range.

If some of you continue to do it, I am VERY confident you will eventually get your ass kicked by it. I have not been on this site for very long, and have already seen it burn a few dudes in here...

Been here nearly a year, and I have seen just as many guys bust out betting dogs. It is an issue of bankroll management, not the line you bet.

I am not talking about betting 2 or 3 big faves a year. but if you see yourself continually betting -400 and up guys because they are sure things, I honestly believe you have a problem. That is like going to the roulette wheel and covering 30 of the 38 numbers because you are bound to win..

Well if the pay out on the roullette wheel was 38:1 instead of the 35:1 that would be an awesome bet, and you would be a millionaire in a matter of months. I think you are confusing the issue of betting too much for your bankroll with betting on favorites.

The bottom line is that if you can bet -400 favorites and win more than 80% of your bets, you have an edge and you will make money... I don't see how you can't see this.

You keep throwing your antecdotes (which conflict with my experiences with pros btw) as evidence. But the bottom line is that the math is simple... win more than the line says you should.

Take the Couture bet. Looking back it is easy to say we all should have layed our entire bankroll on him. But we know that now. If BJ would have beat the shit out of Edgar the first fight like he did to Kenny, Sherk, and Diego we would have said the same thing about that fight.

No one said we should bet the bankroll on him, again, just because you bet a favorite, does not mean you have to bet too much. I have a firm 5u cap on any bet. I never bet more than 5% on any fight (10% in the 50u building stage)... I don't always have to bet to win a certain amount. Personally, I have always had a -400 cap... but it is not magic. There is nothing wrong with -600 bets, if you set your line higher than that. I just choose not to make them.

How can you say that Scientist. The one thing that has gotten you to re evaluate your whole betting system was 1 simple mistake...you took long odds on a few faves and they bit you in the ass. If you would have not done that 1 thing, you would be going about your business like nothing went wrong.

Betting these faves can work out great for some time. But when the tide turns, and you hit your rough patch, the hurt will be profound.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

As I really know no one who takes this seriously who bets such long lines like this. It seems this is a hobby for most in here, so i kind of understand. But I can assure you that those who do this for a living pretty much stay clear of this big faves.

So I have heard (from you, mostly)... I don't do things just because I saw another guy doing it that way. There are a lot of guys who claim to be professional poker gamblers out there... And I have seen A LOT of really dumb strategies and an inordinate amount of so called pro poker players that believe in a lot of weird "lucky" charms and rituals. The bottom line is that the math bears out... win more than the line says you are supposed to, that's all you have to do.

Some of you keep talking about the value. There is a big difference in a guy that has value @ -180 and a guy that has value @ -650. You are still risking so much more of your bankroll for such a small payout...That is part of money management and more importantly common sense.

You keep saying that. But the part where we all agreed that risking too much of your bankroll is bad just keeps buzzing right past you for some reason.


We will just have to agree to disagree here. Let's just move on because this is not going anywhere...

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

How can you say that Scientist. The one thing that has gotten you to re evaluate your whole betting system was 1 simple mistake...you took long odds on a few faves and they bit you in the ass. If you would have not done that 1 thing, you would be going about your business like nothing went wrong.

Betting these faves can work out great for some time. But when the tide turns, and you hit your rough patch, the hurt will be profound.

Not really though. My mistake was not taking long odds... I have always lost long odds fights occasionally, and have plenty of rough patches where I lost several 5u bets in a short time frame. What bit me in the ass was chasing mid-event, on fights that I knew were bad bets. Just pure tilt.

When I stick to my strategy, I am fine. My problem is my own personally inability to stick to my own strategy. I keep a tally of my "recommended" plays on my blog, and it is going fine, about a 40% ROI for the year. I am just a wild man at heart and the amount of money I am playing with is relatively small for me (not bragging, just sayin). So I tend to get reckless with my bankroll.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

That guy that SPX posted is probably bust right now.

No

He lost 25 units on GSP, so he loaded up double on the rematch to win back 10 units...Priceless.

Where does it say this? Oh, wait, it doesn't. . .

Also, if you didn't catch it, his bankroll was 500u at the time. So 25u is only 5%. You've never risked 5% of your bankroll on a fight?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

^^ wasn't he the guy that knew performity and was getting on us for bashing him?

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

^^^ I think he may have come to Performify's aid, basically saying that we all go through slumps, but I don't think he knows him personally.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

There was someone that knew him, maybe it was on a different forum.

In any event... I am so lost now.

Maybe I should just go back to my original plan, and just try not to go on tilt again. Then do a side parlay project for locks like I had. That was working pretty well.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

FYI, here is another guy I usually confer with: https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key ... l=en#gid=0

He is on a shitty run too, just like everyone

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

Maybe I should just go back to my original plan, and just try not to go on tilt again. Then do a side parlay project for locks like I had. That was working pretty well.

I honestly think this is the best idea.

Devoting most of your bankroll to parlays, regardless of how well researched, just doesn't sound like something that has the best chances of succeeding in the long run to me.