Slump buster

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

^^ I totally agree. I think it is easier to win more that 80% of your bets @ -400 than it is to win more than 50% at even odds.

You have -500 lines where it is a legit fighter against a legit fighter (Sonnen (R-Or)/Silva was in that ballpark). #1 should not be -500 to #2. Same thing with GSP/Koscheck IMO. I don't make -400 bets where there are two top guys involved.

But then you have a lot of fights like Phil Davis or Daniel Cormier (who could probably beat at least 4 or 5 top 10 guys right now) at -500 against another guy that does not have a big name. In those cases, I will take the Cormier's of the world @ -400. Then you have the legit fighter vs. scrub matchups like Couture/Toney or Sylvia/Pudz or Mousasi/Goodridge... those fights scream to be bet even at deep odds.

I don't know, the more I think about it... you just can't pick any old deep odds fight, but I think I could go a long time, very long picking -500 fights and never losing, much more than 5:1 tbh. And that is how I used to bet. I would take anything up to -400, and I used to go one 10-1 streajs ALL the time. Since each win ratchets up your unit size, you can bak pretty quickly this way.

In short, I am going back to the favorites. You can't talk me out of it.

Am I missing something? Was it not betting a couple of heavy faves. that got you in trouble? I know you say it was you going on tilt, but did you not bet on a couple of heavy favorites that lost?

Look, I am just trying to help you the best I can through this slump. I could very well be wrong. But I really think the worst thing you can do to get your edge back is to bet a couple of -500 fighters to win a couple of units. What if you lose one and drop another 5 or 10 units. You are going to jump off a building if you lose 10 units on a -500 fighter, but win a couple of units on an even money fight because you bet 10 units on a sure thing and 2 units on a value bet on the same card.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Ok well seeing as we are all down in the dumps. What does everyone see on the horizon for good bets?

For the odds posted so far on bestfightodds.com I see(I am not 100 percent confident in all of these)

Askren, Condit, Akiyama, Belfort, Machida, Cain Velasquez, Nick diaz.

Special mention to Neil Grove, even though I probably won't bet it.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

^True, but there are hundreds of fights in the -250 to -400 range...

I used to bet a lot of fights in that range and did pretty well... I ran some back tests and figured out that I would have done better had I just stuck to -250 bets or under, but I think that made me start betting more fights that I otherwise would not have bet in that range. Whereas when I had a couple of -350 bets on the card, I was pretty careful about my lower line bets. No, I seem to be betting a lot more recklessly in that range. -250 is sort of my sweet spot. I seem to win WAY more than 2.5 to every one that I lose in that range. It is just enough to where you can find some pretty solid favorites, but not so high that you have to win every one.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

Am I missing something? Was it not betting a couple of heavy faves. that got you in trouble? I know you say it was you going on tilt, but did you not bet on a couple of heavy favorites that lost?

He bet on a couple of everything that lost. It happens. It wasn't just heavy favorites.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

Am I missing something? Was it not betting a couple of heavy faves. that got you in trouble? I know you say it was you going on tilt, but did you not bet on a couple of heavy favorites that lost?

Look, I am just trying to help you the best I can through this slump. I could very well be wrong. But I really think the worst thing you can do to get your edge back is to bet a couple of -500 fighters to win a couple of units. What if you lose one and drop another 5 or 10 units. You are going to jump off a building if you lose 10 units on a -500 fighter, but win a couple of units on an even money fight because you bet 10 units on a sure thing and 2 units on a value bet on the same card.

Really the fights I lost were not heavy favorites except Sok (which I vowed not to bet) I lost on Darebdyan, Jardine, Larson, and Sok (back to back to back to back). Karen was like -170 IIRC, Larson was -180 or so and I think KJ was are -210... Sok was deep, like -300 or more. 3 fights I did not even look at prior to betting, except to say I though Prangley was the exact same type of fighter that has been beating KJ and that I will never bet Sok again, even though he was a near lock here (in my then opinion).

I don't really get too upset about my losses believe it or not, because I am not playing with that much money (about 5K) in regards to my overall situation in life. I get more upset because I made mistakes that I nkow better than to make... I am still "testing" my edge before I start contributing extra money. I built my bankroll off of 1 $600 deposit to almost $10k, then I had to cash out about 6 months ago for a purchase and then I took some hits in the last few months. Next year was the year I was planning on dumping some more money into this thing, but I think I am going to wait a while on that now.

That said, I appreciate and value your input... We are all here to try to make money and improve each other as cappers. My goal is to build this into a part time income... I know my capping ability is there, I lack the maturity in my bankroll management though.

Big faves, dogs, small faves, I have looked at my past bets... I am not very good at picking dogs. So that is part of it... the other part of it is that I have a capping system that I believe in (favorites with a grappling element, very few variables). I like to know where the fight is going to take place and who has the edge in that place. That formula has worked for me. I lose when I get away from that formula. I consistently lose when I get away from that actually. When I stick to that, I win.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Ok well seeing as we are all down in the dumps. What does everyone see on the horizon for good bets?

For the odds posted so far on bestfightodds.com I see(I am not 100 percent confident in all of these)

Askren, Condit, Akiyama, Belfort, Machida, Cain Velasquez, Nick diaz.

Special mention to Neil Grove, even though I probably won't bet it.

BUMP

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

BUMP

I will probably be on Askren. The fight fits my profile- I know what the battle is..Askren will be wanting the takedown and Good will be trying to avoid it. I will put my money on the olympic wrestler to get the takedown... since I have confidence in Askren's gas tank and ability to get repeated takedowns, I think he will win by submission or UD. Good has a puncher's chance of course.

I don't like Grove for the same reason I do like Askren.

I will be on Cain as well. I like BJ a lot at -130. I will definitely be on BJ there.


I like the sexy bet, but am not going to make it bc it doesn't fit my profile. I do not like Diaz at the current line at all (@ -170 ok, @ -250 no way- value is on Noons now IMO)... Same thing with Condit, I like Hardy a lot there, I think he will beat Condit and his line is pretty good.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

BUMP

I will probably be on Askren. The fight fits my profile- I know what the battle is..Askren will be wanting the takedown and Good will be trying to avoid it. I will put my money on the olympic wrestler to get the takedown... since I have confidence in Askren's gas tank and ability to get repeated takedowns, I think he will win by submission or UD. Good has a puncher's chance of course.

I don't like Grove for the same reason I do like Askren.

I will be on Cain as well. I like BJ a lot at -130. I will definitely be on BJ there.


I like the sexy bet, but am not going to make it bc it doesn't fit my profile. I do not like Diaz at the current line at all (@ -170 ok, @ -250 no way- value is on Noons now IMO)... Same thing with Condit, I like Hardy a lot there, I think he will beat Condit and his line is pretty good.

Why Hardy? I'm not 100 percent on condit, just looking for input.

A couple of things about Condit. He requested the fight with Hardy(he says, could be a hype thing) because he thinks his style matches up with him well and he is a big name. I like that Condit thinks he has the skills to beat him and picked him out of the lot. He knows more about himself, Hardy and mma than I do.

Second, he is training with GJackson now and in an interview claimed this is the best camp he has ever had in his entire life.

Third all of his wins except one have come via finish..he is only 26 now. He is probably just starting to tap into his potential..

Fourth, Hardy is just a striker. He doesn't do anything else. Condit will most likely be going for takedowns.

Fifth. I've always thought Hardy is somewhat overrated. I could be wrong.

I dont see Hardy knocking him out or submitting him. I could see Condit doing either..Though Hardy via decision is quite possible.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

^^^ I've got a bet on Hardy. I think he's going to be sharper in the striking. He also has pretty decent TDD and Condit's takedowns aren't the best. Also, if it does go to the ground, it's not like he's entirely a fish out of water. He held his own against Davis, who also has solid--if not exceptional--ground skills.

I think the turning point for me when it comes to Hardy was the Swick fight. Swick is pretty good everywhere and Hardy schooled him.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

Ok well seeing as we are all down in the dumps. What does everyone see on the horizon for good bets?

For the odds posted so far on bestfightodds.com I see(I am not 100 percent confident in all of these)

Askren, Condit, Akiyama, Belfort, Machida, Cain Velasquez, Nick diaz.

Special mention to Neil Grove, even though I probably won't bet it.

Askren=no bet, as I just think he looks beatable at times, and I actually think Good is good.

Condit= I am prbably on the other side, Scientist summed it up pretty well.

Akiyama= I love it, 2 to 1 dog is a steal IMO.

Belfort= Maybe a small play, but I think the line is ALMOST right.

Machida= I think he wins this easy, I have thought Rampage was about done for awhile now...The speed asvantage will be huge. The price is the only thing that may keep me off Lyoto...-250 or lower, I may bet it.

Cain= May be my biggest(maybe sencond largest) bet of the year...I think he should be favored, and I think he matches up extremely well with Brock. I have thought he would be the champ for awhile now.

Diaz= I think he wins and holds some BIG advantages here...just the price that keeps me away.

Scientists mentioned BJ, I am on him already for 5 units, at a great opening price, I still like him @ -130. He will be a big bet.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

BUMP

I will probably be on Askren. The fight fits my profile- I know what the battle is..Askren will be wanting the takedown and Good will be trying to avoid it. I will put my money on the olympic wrestler to get the takedown... since I have confidence in Askren's gas tank and ability to get repeated takedowns, I think he will win by submission or UD. Good has a puncher's chance of course.

I don't like Grove for the same reason I do like Askren.

I will be on Cain as well. I like BJ a lot at -130. I will definitely be on BJ there.


I like the sexy bet, but am not going to make it bc it doesn't fit my profile. I do not like Diaz at the current line at all (@ -170 ok, @ -250 no way- value is on Noons now IMO)... Same thing with Condit, I like Hardy a lot there, I think he will beat Condit and his line is pretty good.

Why Hardy? I'm not 100 percent on condit, just looking for input.

A couple of things about Condit. He requested the fight with Hardy(he says, could be a hype thing) because he thinks his style matches up with him well and he is a big name. I like that Condit thinks he has the skills to beat him and picked him out of the lot. He knows more about himself, Hardy and mma than I do.

Second, he is training with GJackson now and in an interview claimed this is the best camp he has ever had in his entire life.

Third all of his wins except one have come via finish..he is only 26 now. He is probably just starting to tap into his potential..

Fourth, Hardy is just a striker. He doesn't do anything else. Condit will most likely be going for takedowns.

Fifth. I've always thought Hardy is somewhat overrated. I could be wrong.

I dont see Hardy knocking him out or submitting him. I could see Condit doing either..Though Hardy via decision is quite possible.

Hardy seems to have a really good beard, and really rarely takes clean shots. Hardy is a bit deceiving because he just does not go in there and try to knock you out. He is a pretty slick counter puncher who can make you pay coming in. I personally think he is going to make Condit pay when they stand in the pocket. On the other hand, Condit could outwork Hardy in the judges eyes. I could see a fight where Hardy lands the cleaner shots, but Condit pushes the pace. could end up being a close fight.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

BTW. Mike Swick has been fighting with health issues.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=ys-mmaweek081110

Obviously it's hard to say how much this has affected him but this could be the reason why he has looked so bad lately. Starting with Hardy.

He hasn't really dominated anyone either.

Ghono is a 5'7'' 170 pounder. Win via Split D. Online play by plays all seem to favor Hardy but he still fighting a much smaller guy.

He knocks out Marham who gets knocked out a lot.

Marcus Davis. He wins this. 2 rounds to 1? Since then, KO'd by Ben saunders, fights Goulet and wins but gets dropped in the fight, beaten badly by Nate Diaz. He seems to be coming to the end of his career.

Lastly Mike Swick who might be sick..

I don't know, I think he is overrated. He is a good striker but that is all he ever does. He has never gone for a takedown and I am pretty sure the only reason he got the title shot is because he is a Brit and they want to get them to watch. Also he is a striker so that is a good sell...

Fightmetric for Hardy GSP..
http://blog.fightmetric.com/2010/08/st- ... eport.html

I think he did the worst out of anyone that fought GSP(that didn't get finished).

Thats not a big teller, i know everyone gets their ass beat by him but still.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

BTW. Mike Swick has been fighting with health issues.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/news?slug=ys-mmaweek081110

Obviously it's hard to say how much this has affected him but this could be the reason why he has looked so bad lately. Starting with Hardy.

He hasn't really dominated anyone either.

Ghono is a 5'7'' 170 pounder. Win via Split D. Online play by plays all seem to favor Hardy but he still fighting a much smaller guy.

He knocks out Marham who gets knocked out a lot.

Marcus Davis. He wins this. 2 rounds to 1? Since then, KO'd by Ben saunders, fights Goulet and wins but gets dropped in the fight, beaten badly by Nate Diaz. He seems to be coming to the end of his career.

Lastly Mike Swick who might be sick..

I don't know, I think he is overrated. He is a good striker but that is all he ever does. He has never gone for a takedown and I am pretty sure the only reason he got the title shot is because he is a Brit and they want to get them to watch. Also he is a striker so that is a good sell...

Fightmetric for Hardy GSP..
http://blog.fightmetric.com/2010/08/st- ... eport.html

I think he did the worst out of anyone that fought GSP(that didn't get finished).

Thats not a big teller, i know everyone gets their ass beat by him but still.

Very solid points. This could be a case where everyone thinks that Hardy beats him because of the style match up. But they forget that Condit is at least on his level. This fight could really end up being VERY close, just like the Davis fight was. Not sure I feel like sweating a close decision with a -170 bet on Hardy.

Starting to think this is a no bet for me.

[SPX]

Re: Slump buster

^^^ Okay, interesting analysis. So sell me on Condit. . .

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

I'm reading play by plays for Condit right now.