Slump buster

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

I'm not sold on him yet. Everyone else seems to say Hardy. I just think Condit MIGHT be able to pull it off and he is a Udog. That attracts me. He isn't a very big dog though.

[Svino]

Re: Slump buster

Askren: I might bet him, too. I need to watch more footage of Good before I feel comfortable with it, though.

Condit: I agree that Hardy is overrated, but I was unpleasantly surprised to find the line as close as it is. Probably no bet from me.

Akiyama: Probably a good bet at 2:1, but the line is quickly moving towards something more reasonable.

Belfort: I love the guy, but I don't think he's the right type of fighter to beat Anderson. I might end up with a bet on Silva here, as bettors are left with the memory of Silva looking weak against someone who was the right type of fighter to beat him. On the other hand, I don't want to bet against Vitor.

Machida: I already have a nice bet on him. Rampage hasn't impressed me in a long time, and Machida is an awful matchup for him anyway. (He looked worse than Thiago Silva did against both Evans and Jardine, looking worse against Machida would be a tall order, but we'll see if he can pull it off.)

Cain: I have money on him. I'm not super confident about it. I'm pretty sure Brock won't be able to manhandle Cain, but I don't know that Cain will be able to get takedowns either. If the fight stays standing, I'm not sure what to expect. Brock does have a reach and power advantage, but he looked pretty awful against Carwin. On the other hand, I haven't quite forgotten how bad Cain's striking looked against Kongo, and out-boxing Nog isn't the accomplishment it used to be.

Diaz: The line is probably too steep here. I actually think Noon's striking in MMA is overrated, but then he did already beat Diaz up once.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Ellenberger Condit was very close. Ellenberger seemed to take him down a lot and hurt him badly standing. From what I am reading Condit has an amazing Chin.

I read some more on Condit. It seems like he gets taken down a lot. It also seems like he gets beat up a lot. This is a hard one.

Maybe I will not bet this.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

I actually thought Condit beat Kamp., which says alot in my book. He also showed a great beard and heart in both his wins against Burger and McDonalds.

Both Berger and MacDonald would probably give Hardy a good fight also.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Yeah I just wonder if Condit can't not fight like a crazy madman and actually mix it up and pull off some takedowns against Hardy. The outworking him for the D is a good point also.

I like Condits confidence. I don't know if he is just trying to hype this fight up or what but he said this the following. He took the fight because Hardy seemed like a guy he could beat with a big name. There are a lot of big names but he picked Hardy..It kind of makes sense. All Hardy can do is standup. Condit seems like he is looking for opportunity here..

The switch to Greg Jackson has me thinking as well. I hate putting faith in him though. He has lost plenty of fights. However, Condit is only 26 years old. He has obvious potential to be really good though..

Now that he is with Jackson, is that being tapped or what? That is a really solid question that basically can't be answered.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

Askren: I might bet him, too. I need to watch more footage of Good before I feel comfortable with it, though.

Condit: I agree that Hardy is overrated, but I was unpleasantly surprised to find the line as close as it is. Probably no bet from me.

Akiyama: Probably a good bet at 2:1, but the line is quickly moving towards something more reasonable.

Belfort: I love the guy, but I don't think he's the right type of fighter to beat Anderson. I might end up with a bet on Silva here, as bettors are left with the memory of Silva looking weak against someone who was the right type of fighter to beat him. On the other hand, I don't want to bet against Vitor.

Machida: I already have a nice bet on him. Rampage hasn't impressed me in a long time, and Machida is an awful matchup for him anyway. (He looked worse than Thiago Silva did against both Evans and Jardine, looking worse against Machida would be a tall order, but we'll see if he can pull it off.)

Cain: I have money on him. I'm not super confident about it. I'm pretty sure Brock won't be able to manhandle Cain, but I don't know that Cain will be able to get takedowns either. If the fight stays standing, I'm not sure what to expect. Brock does have a reach and power advantage, but he looked pretty awful against Carwin. On the other hand, I haven't quite forgotten how bad Cain's striking looked against Kongo, and out-boxing Nog isn't the accomplishment it used to be.

Diaz: The line is probably too steep here. I actually think Noon's striking in MMA is overrated, but then he did already beat Diaz up once.

I think Kongo is one of the better strikers in the UFC. I understand that blasting Nog out is not what it used to be, but Cain made him look absolutely silly. Much more so than Mir. And this was the same Nog that beat randy(I know) up standing. I am also starting to think maybe Brocks power is not what everyone thinks it is. the dude tagged Heath with one good shot, and TKO'd randy, the same Randy that was dropped by Nog. I doubt that the Cain that stood up to full blasts from Kongo can not handle shots from Brock. but IMO it will not matter, as I doubt Brock even lands anything signifigant on Cain. i believe Brock will go into hyper panic takedown mode after he eats about a dozen shots from Cain.

i am very confident that Cain will outclass brock on the feet.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Okay nvermind, he started training with GJ when he was 15. Also started wrestling when he was 9 btw. I'm assuming all the way until high school.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

Yeah I just wonder if Condit can't not fight like a crazy madman and actually mix it up and pull off some takedowns against Hardy. The outworking him for the D is a good point also.

I like Condits confidence. I don't know if he is just trying to hype this fight up or what but he said this the following. He took the fight because Hardy seemed like a guy he could beat with a big name. There are a lot of big names but he picked Hardy..It kind of makes sense. All Hardy can do is standup. Condit seems like he is looking for opportunity here..

The switch to Greg Jackson has me thinking as well. I hate putting faith in him though. He has lost plenty of fights. However, Condit is only 26 years old. He has obvious potential to be really good though..

Now that he is with Jackson, is that being tapped or what? That is a really solid question that basically can't be answered.

I have always said, if you have a fight with two equally matched up fighters, take the dog. the only thing that stops me is that i think Hardy will land the harder(head-snapping) cleaner shots.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Askren: I might bet him, too. I need to watch more footage of Good before I feel comfortable with it, though.

Condit: I agree that Hardy is overrated, but I was unpleasantly surprised to find the line as close as it is. Probably no bet from me.

Akiyama: Probably a good bet at 2:1, but the line is quickly moving towards something more reasonable.

Belfort: I love the guy, but I don't think he's the right type of fighter to beat Anderson. I might end up with a bet on Silva here, as bettors are left with the memory of Silva looking weak against someone who was the right type of fighter to beat him. On the other hand, I don't want to bet against Vitor.

Machida: I already have a nice bet on him. Rampage hasn't impressed me in a long time, and Machida is an awful matchup for him anyway. (He looked worse than Thiago Silva did against both Evans and Jardine, looking worse against Machida would be a tall order, but we'll see if he can pull it off.)

Cain: I have money on him. I'm not super confident about it. I'm pretty sure Brock won't be able to manhandle Cain, but I don't know that Cain will be able to get takedowns either. If the fight stays standing, I'm not sure what to expect. Brock does have a reach and power advantage, but he looked pretty awful against Carwin. On the other hand, I haven't quite forgotten how bad Cain's striking looked against Kongo, and out-boxing Nog isn't the accomplishment it used to be.

Diaz: The line is probably too steep here. I actually think Noon's striking in MMA is overrated, but then he did already beat Diaz up once.

I think Kongo is one of the better strikers in the UFC. I understand that blasting Nog out is not what it used to be, but Cain made him look absolutely silly. Much more so than Mir. And this was the same Nog that beat randy(I know) up standing. I am also starting to think maybe Brocks power is not what everyone thinks it is. the dude tagged Heath with one good shot, and TKO'd randy, the same Randy that was dropped by Nog. I doubt that the Cain that stood up to full blasts from Kongo can not handle shots from Brock. but IMO it will not matter, as I doubt Brock even lands anything signifigant on Cain. i believe Brock will go into hyper panic takedown mode after he eats about a dozen shots from Cain.

i am very confident that Cain will outclass brock on the feet.

Yeah I will be betting cain also. He has had an 8 month layoff. Not too hairy.
I just wonder how he will win. I bet the line on him to win via TKO/KO will be insane. I think after he wears brock down he can win that way or also by sub. Cain is a bjj Purp belt world champ, correct me if i am wrong. Only purp belt but it shows he is serious about his bjj training.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Also i think the line will get better for Cain.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

It would be great to get him at +200.

[sbjj]

Re: Slump buster

It would be great to get him at +200.

Jesus, i would wet myself. I am going to hit Vegas the weekend before the fight. Would just love +160 or better. My fear is that he goes to +180 +200 range after the weigh-ins.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Do you ever bet online or just vegas? If only vegas, why?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: Slump buster

My bets are going to be Askren, Cain, and BJ for sure... the others are no bets for me...

Re: Condit/Hardy... Condit does not have the tools to take the fight to the mat. If he does manage to get it there, he can't keep it there. So it comes down to who has better striking. I think Hardy is overrated too, and I think almost any wrestler at WW would beat him. But I think he has too much power and will just be too strong for Condit. He does use more kicks and knees though. I just don't see a path to victory for Condit, other than a decision, which will be close in any event. Hardy could win a decision or finish him off with a big shot. Condit has not looked good to me since taking the step up in competition.

Brock is not going to hold Cain down. Watch a college wrestling match. None of these guys can hold each other down for more than 10 seconds. The wrestling skil disparity is small.

[edman5555]

Re: Slump buster

Askren, Cain an BJ are solid bets. I am probably going to be off Condit. Maybe Hardy via decision would be a good bet.