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Lots of money to be made here at 127.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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Well I think Spencer Fisher is in over his head. Pearson is young, he's quick, and he has crisp hands. His last fight may have been a result of him overlooking his opponent's abilities standing and or all around. However it's only because of that loss that his line as what it is right now I think. Should still be a good scrap. Spencer is game.
I was looking at Perosh but his striking is pretty horrendous so I backed off.
Ring should be able to outgrapple Fukuda and ground him enroute to a decision. Fukuda isn't exactly a submission whiz so we'll see if Rings wrestling can get him through to the finish.
Chris Camozzi sucks.
Brian Ebersole while tough and larger than Lytle will probably get his ass handed to him one way or another.2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
2012: +20.311uComment
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I like all your plays Ludo except Nick Ring. I hope he pulls off the win for you though. I really think Fitch is going to win this fight, but for some reason my gut is telling me BJ. I am just going to stay away from this fight and enjoy.
Right now I am on Pearson, Gustafsson, and Sotiropolous. I also have a bet on Bisping by submission @+1400...I thought this was a great deal, I think Bisping is going to take Rivera down in this fight tbh. At first look I liked Kyle Noke as well but I didn't look too much into it. I might look at it later to see if Chris Camozzi does indeed suck that bad.Comment
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I am basically going to a 5u system for the year. I am going to double my bankroll up in 2011 or go down in flames. Basically, I am going to lay down 10u on each play, and parlay i until I clear 10u. Then take it down, re-divide and go. I am still going to make straight plays too, but they will be small. That's how I roll in 2011.
I was reading an investing book in B&N last night, and basically when the probability of success is higher, I need to be risking more.
10u to win a measly .83u on "not siver by submission/not rivera by submission/not fitch by submission". Prepare to witness the power of compounding.
Basically, only playing absolute locks in this thing, just like the failed never ending locks parlay (which really never failed, it lost because I used the bankroll on a non-lock in a moment of heated desperation).2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I don't know about those parlays Scientist. 10u to win .83u? I just calculated that out, you have to win 12 times to win 10u. If you lose 1 in 13 your total profit is .83u. Thats a lot to risk on so many different things not happening. I feel like that will fall through at some point. Maybe you could try juicing up your normal picks with those parlays. That will increase your payout for those by a lot more.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Like for instance. 10u on bisping + all those parlays you made. Then you would have 13.5u or so going into your parlays instead of 10u. Pretty fancy.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Not a fan of that kind or parlays either. The problem with ''not fighter X by submission'' is that anybody could win by submission. Even if a fighter A is knocking out a fighter B, and the fighter B fall on his knees, then the first fighter jump on the back and lock a rear naked choke and the end result will be submission. I have seen that SO OFTEN. Another thing that could happend is crap like dos santos vs cro cop. cro cop could see anymore because of punches to the eye: end result (submission (punches). shit like that could scrap up your parlayComment
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I don't think any of those things would happen 1 in 50 times, much less 1 in 13. I understand that it is a lot of of risk for little reward... but it will add up. I am trying to not think about individual events. So the parlay will just keep going next time, where I will bet 10.83u, maybe next time I clear 2u, then 3 and then 4 and I start over after I double it (10u). The key is to not get wild and try to make it happen too fast, that is what I did last time. I am only betting things that I feel have actual value and are very very unlikely to lose. I am still going to lose sometimes (like I probably would have bet "not Forrest to sub Shogun" for example), but I think I can find the value and chip away if I narrow down the variables.
We'll see what happens. It won't be the first time I have been wrong. But I am doing it.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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