UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[SPX]

Or maybe I'll just bet whatever High5 bets.

LOL

[poopoo333]

I would like to get Mr. grappling expert scientist to weigh in on Tavares/Roller.

[MMA_scientist]

I would like to get Mr. grappling expert scientist to weigh in on Tavares/Roller.

Tavares is not a high level grapper, but his wrestling is pretty good and he is probably a lot stronger than Roller. I think it will look a lot like the Lentz fight. Roller dominated Gomi in a grappling match... but he got subbed by Pettis. It is hard to tell, because these WEC guys have been fighting a totally different group of guys.

Bottom line, I think Roller would beat him in a grappling match. But Tavares has more tools. Close fight, I wouldn't bet either guy as a favorite.

[MMA_scientist]

just saw that the line was -110 for each guy. Looked at Tavares a litte bit, he has struggled with the wrestler/grappler prototype. Griffin. Pelligrino, and Lentz are all decent wrestlers who will go to their backs too. Roller is the same way. I might go with Roller here.

[edman5555]

What do you think about Palhares/Branch? I know Palhares is the better grappler. He is also bigger and stronger. I am thinking he has better takedowns. I will prob bet him.

[poopoo333]

just saw that the line was -110 for each guy. Looked at Tavares a litte bit, he has struggled with the wrestler/grappler prototype. Griffin. Pelligrino, and Lentz are all decent wrestlers who will go to their backs too. Roller is the same way. I might go with Roller here.

Did you watch Griffin/Tavares? Tavares took Griffin down a lot and got a lot of dominant positions. I'd watch those three fights if I were you. I thought the same thing when looking at records, but after watching some tape I like Tavares in this fight.

[edman5555]

Yeah Tavares is pretty solid but I really don't know anything about Shane Roller.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I am pretty familiar with Tavares' fights. I said he (Tavares) has strong wrestling. Lentz/Pelligrino/Griffin are all several rungs below Roller on the wrestling ladder though. I think Roller is a slightly better grappler with slightly better takedowns. It is close, but the line is close. The X factor is Roller coming into the big stage. That factor could make Tavares worth a bet. I will probably stay away because it is really close and I think it could go either way.

[poopoo333]

Roller ends up on his back often for such a high level wrestler. I forgot which fights they were, but I will point them out tomorrow after I finish watching his fights again

[SPX]

Went ahead and dropped the hammer on Kampmann. 1.55u to win 1u

I really think he's going to have what it takes to beat Diego. He should be bigger and stronger, and just as well rounded.

Also, Diego's last three fights involve him getting brutalized by Penn, soundly defeated by Hathaway, and winning a clear--but still relatively close--decision against Paulo Thiago.

Kampmann subbed an admittedly undersized Jacob Volkmann, won a more impressive decision against Thiago, and arguably beat Shields, though that fight was razor thin either way.

It might be a close fight, but I think that at -155 Kampmann's worth a bet. I expect one of those two to be the case, though: Very close fight that could go either way, or a clear win for the Hitman.

[Mr. IWS]

^^^I like it man.

[SPX]

^^^I like it man.

Do you concur?

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is a really close fight. My concern is that IF Diego is able to take him down, he is going to be a lot of a lot better conditioned than Shields. He will just energizer bunny those takedowns. I think we all agree that if Shields didn't gas so badly, he would have won decisively. That said, I don't know that Diego is going to be able to get tha takedown. And Kampmann could very well turn the tables on him and get a takedown of his own. Diego's takedown defense is not that good. And if his fight with Hathway is any indication of how he does with a bigger man, he is going to have some trouble. It is probably worth a bet @ -155.

[trotterz]

My only problem with that fight is that Diego came back to Jackson's MMA for his fight with Paulo Thiago and that he is still training there for his fight with Kampmann. Since both of these guys are pretty similar skill wise, I think that a good gameplan from Greg jackson could maybe make the difference.
Look at Diego's fight against BJ Penn, against Hathaway, and now against Thiago and you can clearly see a big difference

[MMA_scientist]

^ I don't think Jackson makes a lick of difference (for any fighter really). The benefit to a good camp is the training partners. His gameplan against Penn and Hathaway was out of necessity. He definitely could not stand with those guys, so his only option was to try and try for takedowns. He was just overmatched. Thiago is an all-rounder, but his striking is not overwhelmingly dangerous, and his wrestling is not that great, so mixing it up is a little easier with him than the other guys.