UFC 128 Newark, NJ March 19 Rua vs Jones

[MMA_scientist]

I think Bisping would outstrike Marquart, FWIW. But Nate has shown more power. I just think Marquart's striking is overrated and is based on a couple of highlight reel moments against Kampmann and Gouveia. He is much less effective when he is thinking about the takedown. I do think he will win, I just don't think he will get a finish.

[trotterz]

If my memory is good, miller didn't really even try to take bisping down in their fight. If he did, he didn't try often. He had no problem about standing up agains,t a better striker even if he knew that he was getting outclassed and that his ground game was WAAAYY better than bispings.
So IMO Marquardt is gonna decide where the fight is going to play out, standing or on the ground.

[MMA_scientist]

Miller has never been finished. he has a really well rounded ground game, but he is definitely behind in the striking. On the ground, I actually think Miller is a little better. Marquart should try to force a stand up fight, and he might be able to drop him and then pound him out. But I think it is going to a decision... just don't know if I want to pay 2:1 for it

[trotterz]

on the other hand, miller has a really good chin

[edman5555]

Marquardt has pretty heavy hands. I don't know if I would bet that.

[MMA_scientist]

I may even hedge out completely on Jones by decision... but then that is a lot of risk on "Not Shogun by decision"

[MMA_scientist]

Here is what I am thinking:

continue my locks parlay: 10.83u to win 1.61u on "not Wineland by sub/not Shalorus by sub/not Schaub by sub"

Faber/Benevidez: 4u to win 2.4u

Jones/Shogun ITD: 4u to win 1.14u + .5u to win 2.18u on Jones by decision (hedge @ +437)

considering:
Marquardt/Miller goes to decision: 2.1u to 2 win 1u

[Thewisemann]

Im sure your right, just saying, oh, by the way, I bet Wineland even though I think he is getting choked out.

[SPX]

Wineland was taken down repeatedly by Chase Beebe

Anything involving Chase Beebe and MMA relevance was a long fucking time ago. Wineland has had plenty of time to improve since then.

[Thewisemann]

Wineland was taken down repeatedly by Chase Beebe

[Thewisemann]

Miller isnt much of a threat off his back...If he was he would have subbed Sonnen.

[poopoo333]

I think Miller's path to victory is to come out aggressive and get the takedown immediately like he did against Horwich and Doerksen.

[SPX]

Ludo, I hope everything you just said is correct.

[Ludo]

Marquardt is an above average grappler overall, it's his wrestling that isn't quite elite. I don't see Miller posing a huge wrestling threat to him though. If anything it will likely be Marquardt getting on top of Miller and beating the holy hell out of him from top position. Could he get caught in a sub? It's possible I suppose but I just don't see it as very likely. I don't remember Miller having great subs off his back and to be honest his go to technique is the guillotine anyway. I just don't see Marquardt falling into a guillotine with Jackson in his corner. I don't think Marquardt will be going for any takedowns since he'll own the striking advantage.

[poopoo333]

I think Cro Cop is old, doesn't really want to fight, and is just fighting for the money. He basically said he is going to retire if he loses and I have a feeling he wants to retire deep down.