UFC 128 Newark, NJ March 19 Rua vs Jones

[edman5555]

The problem with that is Shoguns takedown defense is not very good and Jones has the best takedowns+GNP at light heavyweight. He breaks peoples faces. If Shogun is on his back he will be taking a lot of that. I hear what your saying though, he is very tough but how much can he humanely take? He could get subbed by JJ too..On the flip side of that coin Shogun has amazing striking and good BJJ. He can end it at any time.

[MMA_scientist]

^ I did.

I might hedge that out though... now that I think about it. Rua is tough to finish even when he is a rag doll. Jones has never gone 5 rounds... i think it may be a little steep.

[MMA_scientist]

^ I did.

[Luke]

you all are laying -350 on not to go the distance?

[SPX]

Yeah, are you gonna take Marquardt if he is still under -280? I hope he gets back to -350 I want to get Miller @+250

I will, yes. 5u.

Now if only they would OPEN THE FUCKING LINE before the line shifts again. Because I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Marquardt hit -500 by fight night.

[poopoo333]

Goddamn. Bookmaker, Bodog, and Sportsbook fail so fucking HARD!

Yeah, are you gonna take Marquardt if he is still under -280? I hope he gets back to -350 I want to get Miller @+250

[SPX]

Goddamn. Bookmaker, Bodog, and Sportsbook fail so fucking HARD!

[edman5555]

Yeah the rankings are always out of whack but don't forget he is a rough stylistic matchup for Faber. Good wrestler with better hands and a black belt in bjj. Faber did better the second time as well, though he still lost. Also Fabers wins have almost all been finishes. 7 kos, 13 subs, 3 decs, 1 dq.

As long as Faber doesn't do anything stupid like try to stand and bang we should be ok.

[MMA_scientist]

Jon jones first pro fight was in April of 2008. His fight against Bonnar was in January of 2009. Thats 9 months. Since then he has had 5 fights in the UFC. I am sure he is on another level now.

It is just not physiologically possible for a 205er to grapple the way he does for 25 minutes. The pace is too high. Whether he gasses will probably depend on how Shogun responds to the takedowns. Bonnar was getting up and Jones was doing big flashy throws, that takes it out of you no matter what. There is a reason that wrestling matches are only 6 minutes.

[MMA_scientist]

I think you're being a little unfair.

Probably, but I just don't think the lighter divisions have had the level of talent because the spotlight and money were not there, until the last couple years. I mean, Kid Yamamoto was the #1 fighter for years in that division, all the best fighters were Japanese until about 2 years ago. I think the talent is just now startng to develop in those divisions. So when Wineland was WEC champ, that didn't mean a whole lot, no one, including me knew anything about the WEC until it was on Versus and Zuffa bought it. That said, it is all relative. When I ask if MTB was ever actually good, I mean, he was ranked #3 or 4 PFP not too long ago. In retrospect, that was ridiculous.

[edman5555]

Jon jones first pro fight was in April of 2008. His fight against Bonnar was in January of 2009. Thats 9 months. Since then he has had 5 fights in the UFC. I am sure he is on another level now.

[SPX]

I brought this up before, Jones was very very new to MMA when he had the 3 round fight your referring to in the UFC. He had only been competing for about 2 years, maybe less. I think his cardio then is def not equal to his cardio now. He has been training with a professional camp for a while now. That should make a big difference. On top of that, he is just coming off a camp and going into another one. Shogun has also had a long layoff. I expect Shogun to get fatigued if anyone. We'll see what happens. Either Shogun gets a ko/sub early on or Jones will wear him out and TKO him

You may be right about Jones, but it's all speculation.

The last time Jones went three rounds: Bonnar.
The last time Jones gassed out: Bonnar.

Coincidence? Hmm. . .

[SPX]

I am little more worried about Faber... I mean, was Mike Brown ever that good? Or was Faber just fighting weak opposition? He had some trouble with a lot of the guys he fought, even Pulver lasted a full 5 with him. But the flip side is that Wineland is in that group too, I don't think he is very good.

I think you're being a little unfair. Faber is very good and he has wins over quality comp, including the current BW champ. Choking out Assuncao and killing Mizugaki are also impressive. And Brown may not be a GREAT fighter, but he's a pretty damn good one.

What that said, I do agree that the level of competition has gone up. Guys like Aldo and Hominick are clearly on a whole other level than guys like Jeff Curran and, as much as I hate to say it, Pulver.

As for Wineland, his vids are notoriously difficult to find so I have only seen him fight a handful of times. But he has good boxing and is pretty well-rounded. He's also a former champ. He may never hold a belt again, but I think you're going too far when you say that you "don't think he is very good." I wouldn't be surprised if he's top 10 in the division. And while I think Faber will win, Wineland should have a technical advantage in the stand-up and if he can sprawl-and-brawl then he could win a decision. I don't how good his wrestling is, though.

[edman5555]

I got JJ/Shogun doesn't go the distance for -320 and -350. I already have quite a bit on it. I am going to wait until the other books open lines for it before I place anymore bets on it. I want to see what I can get on it.

[edman5555]

He trains out of Team Quest, Oregon and from what I read that place is having a lot of problems.