Strikeforce's 2011 Heavyweight Grand-Prix

[MMA_scientist]

You just confused me.

For one, he's not -300 in the Bigfoot fight at any book, and the best I can get him at is -525.

For another, why would you want him at +110 if you can get him at +170?

He is -370 on BM right now. I was just saying that EVEN IF he was -300 every time (I hadn't looked at the Bigfoot line, I thought he was like -330), you could STILL get him at + odds. But he is not going to be -300 again, barring an injury. I doubt he is more than -200 at any time against Overeem. He might be -300 against Werdum though. Whoever wins 2 in a row on the other side of the bracket, they will probably come in much less than -300, especially if it is Barnett. I think his lines will look something like -370, -170, -220 = +190 AND you get the benefit of changing your mind if Overeem looks awesome or something. Just to me, to lay down a 3 fight parlay without knowing who he is fighting, I would need better odds. Given that you can probably get better odds or at least comparable odds just by betting the fights individually, there is no reason to bet it.

The flip side is that he may get easy matchups, maybe an alternate, his odds could be considerably worse.

[poopoo333]

Yeah, the win the whole tournament prop odds suck.

I am going to bet Fedor later this week if his line drops

[SPX]

-370, -170, -220 = +190

I don't even know how you calculated that.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't even know how you calculated that.

1 / 3.7 = .27

1.27 / 1.7 = .74

1.27 + .74 = 2.01

2.01 / 2.2 = .91

2.01 + .91 = 2.92 units minus the original 1u = 1.92 units gained off a 1u wager +192

or http://www.madduxsports.com/parlay.html

[zY|]

I don't even know how you calculated that.

Lol. Didn't we go over this last year?

[SPX]

Lol. Didn't we go over this last year?

Maybe.

I don't find knowing that kind of shit necessary for me to be successful at betting, so I usually don't put the time into figuring it out. But I would rather know it than not know it.

This will probably come back up again next year and I still will not know, though.

[Svino]

I wouldn't put anything on Fedor to win the tournament unless I was guaranteed a refund in the event of funny shit going down with M1. Hand injury, refusing to fight Reem unless he's ultra-tested for roids, holding out for more money, etc.

This is Strikeforce and M1 we're talking about. I still feel like something is bound to go wrong.

[Luke]

I don't even know how you calculated that.

insertfacepalm.jpg

[zY|]

http://www.mmafighting.com/2011/02/07/fedor-emelianenko-retires-glorious-sweater/

All in on Bigfoot.

[MMA_scientist]

Villante/Griggs

From what I have read, Villante seems like a solid prospect. He was a HS state champion in wrestling, looks like he has decent kickboxing, but he is only a blue belt in bjj, which means he is still somewhat green. But they are HW's... I read that Villante wants to keep it standing and look for the KO.

Griggs is obviously tough, he doesn't have dominant skills, but he can clearly survive on the mat. He looks like he has pretty good defensive skills off his back, but he is not much of a threat for a sweep or submission.

I think it is going to come down to the striking exchanges. Villante's gas tank and gameplan are the questions.

Anyway, I will take Villante @ close to even or +odds. Nothing I want to get crazy on. It is Villante's first fight on a big stage and Griggs is no pushover.

[poopoo333]

ugh I missed Villante @+120. As soon as I got to bookmaker the line shifted.

[poopoo333]

Well I went ahead and grabbed Villante @-130. I was waiting to see where the line would shift but he kept moving up instead of going back down. Looks like I was right about where the line would be set.

[edman5555]

Yeah I'm going to skip on Villante. I wasn't expecting undercard odds so I am going to take a look at that. Maybe there will be something worth betting on.

[edman5555]

It's hard on these cards because I don't know who any of these people are.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I'm going to skip on Villante. I wasn't expecting undercard odds so I am going to take a look at that. Maybe there will be something worth betting on.

Yeah I didn't even think they would release them so I am going to look at them later. I also want to look at Del Rosario vs Lavar Johnson..I am leaning Del Rosario already though