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Villante doesn't sound like a horrible bet or anything I just can't say he has a definite advantage. Griggs just beat a better wrestler than him. Griggs also can obv hit hard so that always makes it a toss up. I also haven't seen either of them fight. The fact that Villante was *almost* in the NFL must mean he is a good athlete. I can see why he is favored but I don't feel I have enough to place a bet on. I am trying to be tight here, I want to keep my winning record.
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Jason Mclean = Collegiate wrestler, all american I think. 5-3, been training 2 years.
His opponent Kevin Roddy is a bjj black belt (from Kurt Pellegrino). Roddy is 9-11 in competition. Wins mostly by sub
John Cholish. Wrestler from Cornell.
Marc Stevens. Wrestled from age 5 up until college. One semester, quit. Mr. Stevens began wrestling at age 5 and competed through high school at South Jefferson Central School District. He was a Section 3 runner-up as a senior Spartan, then received a scholarship to wrestle at the University at Buffalo. After a semester, he decided to switch gears and train full-time in jiu-jitsu and mixed martial arts in Syracuse.
"I've always been a fan of MMA," he said.
In 2008, he won the 187-pound division of the Empire State Games' Greco-Roman wrestling competition. He won a gold medal and a silver medal during the Grappler's Quest Copa Atlantica Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Championships in Morristown, N.J., and won a Ring of Combat mixed martial arts event in April 2007 in Atlantic City, N.J.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Marc Stevens was on TUF last season. He was the guy that was Koscheck's first pick and then got subbed twice by guillotine. He is not very good IMO. Cholish trains with Renzo as well as being a wrestler, probably comes down to gas and hands though.
Roddy looks like he sucks balls. His 9 wins mostly came early, he is 3-10 in his last 13. But Mclean doesn't look great himself... I can't bet that one.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Yeah I can't bet any of these. Shane looks like he is good but Lavar has huge power. It's too much of a gamble. All of these are. I don't know much about any of them and I don't feel like watching a bunch of tape. I investigated a little bit but I am probably done for now. I'm not betting just to try my luck. That's how I usually lose. I'm going to wait until I see something that jumps out at me. That might be a while though. I usually like to start with guys I know something about already.1 unit = 300 $Comment
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Any chance Igor Gracie is being overvalued because of his last name?Comment
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While looking at Johnson/Del Rosario, I found this:
Johnson's opponent is a middleweight can by the way.
imo, Del Rosario is the better technical striker for sure, much quicker, and won't be at a huge size disadvantage like most of Johnson's opponents in the past. Johnson obviously has power, but I think Del Rosario is going to win. Johnson just goes nuts and throws wide looping flurries, then gets tired. When he throws these flurries he tends to put his head up with his chin right up to get tagged. For a HW striker, Del Rosario is pretty active and slick off of his back. If it gets down there, Del Rosario has the edge.Comment
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I am probably just going to throw a small play down on a wisemann special just to satisfy the monster inside me. These are difficult fights because none of the guys on the card oare very good, or they are both very good.
I keep coming back to that Arlovski Kharitinov fight though. Hoping for Arlovski to return to form is probably a lost cause, but I can't help but think he is going to out box Kharitinov here. At + odds or even odds I am thinking about that bet. He is +105 on Bodog now, I can get him @ -105 on 5d.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Been looking at Cholish/Stephens. Can't bet that one. If i was going to, it would be on Stevens. Cholish should be the better wrestler and looks like he has some subs too, winning his last fight by inverted triangle. But I can't -200 to bet on a guy that has really never fought anyone. Stevens is not a pushover.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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Looked at Arlovski/Kharitinov one last time. I am not going to bet it. I am thinking about the decision prop: decision -315, stoppage +235
Sergei is a badass. Of his 17 wins, only Werdum made it out of the first round. 17 wins, 16 first round. 21 fights, 2 decisions.
Arlovski has fought 23 times, 3 decisions (with one of them being Werdum who has only been finished once, by JDS). The other two are Sylvia in and Bigfoot.
44 fights, 5 decisions between the two of them. 11:1
But then if you look at their records when they have faced top 10 guys: Sergei has 2 decisions and 2 stoppages (both against Overeem). Arlovski has 4 decisions and 3 stoppages (2 against Sylvia).
I am thinking there might be value to the decision prop @ +235, especially since Arlovski does not like to exchange at all anymore. He pretty much retreats at every exchange.
Maybe I am just searching for a bet... thoughts on the decision prop?2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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My guess is that it is because Arlovski's takedown defense is better. The assumption is that Barnett is going to beat Rogers and I think Arlovski is a better matchup for Barnett than Kharitinov... but honestly, it still doesn't make sense for there to be that much difference. A lot of people don't know Kharitinov, maybe he is not getting ant action...2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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I was going to place a bet on AA when he was +400 or better to win by decision but it's dropped. I don't think he has that "killer instinct" anymore and he is going to be careful if he does hurt Sergei and not swarm in. I picture AA moving a lot, and using leg kicks to keep Sergei at bay. But I am staying away from this fight as well unless AA gets to like +130ish. I don't see value at all in this lineComment
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1u on Fedor by KO/TKO +117
Deal with it.2012: +19.33
2012 Parlay project: +16.5uComment
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