Tweet
So the year's almost over and I finished at +15 units, or 15% of my bankroll. Overall pretty happy as I was just trying to beat a 8% return and was even up 30% at one point.
Some of my thoughts and lessons learned from this year
Ring rust is real and should be accounted for. Rampage looked like shit vs Rashad, Sean Sherk gassed. Shoguns previous fights after Knee surgeries.
Double check before finalizing bets. I had two huge mistakes with Sportbet. I’m use to putting in my bet as how much I want to risk. Like $200 means, I’m risking $200. On Sportbet it’s the opposite, means you want to win $200. So what happened is me wanting to put $500 on Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran, not realizing that SportBet made me wager $1000 instead. So double check!
Freak fights are opportunities - Couture over Toney, Tim Silvia vs. Pudzianowski. Also in hindsight, Overeem vs. Rogers was a HUGE mismatch.
Undefeated fights, hype vs. real deal - These are the kinda matches I have the most trouble with, is this new prospect overhyped or the real deal? I made money on Miller vs. Olivera, but lost twice this year betting against Cain. I'm thinking it's better for me to avoid these matches and stick to fights with guys that have a lot of history.
Immediate rematches - So Edgar beat Penn, and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shogun arguably beat Machida and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shit didn't make sense to me. They beat them already, can beat them again. And I made $ from it. I'm also thinking rematches will favor the original winner. Fitch won against Alves and I'm betting on Maynard over Edgar.
MMA judging is an x factor. I’ve lost a lot of bets due to bad judging, dunham/sherk, phan/Garcia, lil nog vs. bader, Machida vs rampage. Not much you can do to prepare for it, but realize there’s no such thing as a “lock.” I use to think flash K.O.'s were the x factors but bad judging is getting more prolific.
Almost all of my bets were picking the winners of a fight. Now I’m expanding a bit and adding in how long the fight goes. Some fights it’ll be very predictable whether that it’ll go to a decision.
Worst bets: Bet on Alves vs. Fitch, Bet on Mir against Carwin, Any bet against Joey Beltran (Rolles Gracie, Tim Hague)
Best bets: Edgar over Penn in 2nd fight, Shogun vs. Machida in 2nd fight, Jim Miller vs. Olivera, Maynard vs. Florian, Okami vs. Marquardt
Stay away from matches that are gambles - How will Shogun's knee surgery affect his Cardio? What's JDS ground game like?
Real life effects on fighters - As soon as I heard Dan Lauzon got kicked out of his own training camp by his brother, I put money on Efrain Escudero because I knew the odds would sway.
Look at the weigh ins for weight cut diasters – This is a nice opportunity. Some guys are DRAINED when it comes to weight ins. One that comes to mind were Irvin vs. Sakara. As soon as I saw how terrible Irvin looked, I put money on Sakara. Another one that comes to mind was Dustin Hazelett’s cut to lightweight, losing to Bocek. Also Jake Shields performed really bad even though he won.
Dealing with emotions - Sometimes if I'll have a really bad event or streak and try to make it up by gambling more in the next event. Just gotta realize it's part of the game. Best way to make it up is to not lose more!
Fighters I will never bet on again: Joe Stevenson, Gonzaga
I’m aiming for +30 units this year. Some + factors for 2011
- More knowledge of fighters. most of the bets I have are for the "known" fighters so I'm looking forward to knowing more of the lesser names.
- Experience of 2010
- This forum. Only had MMA_Scientist's analysis of fights to look at, so it's definitely nice to have everyone's opinion to look at either.
Thanks for reading!
Some of my thoughts and lessons learned from this year
Ring rust is real and should be accounted for. Rampage looked like shit vs Rashad, Sean Sherk gassed. Shoguns previous fights after Knee surgeries.
Double check before finalizing bets. I had two huge mistakes with Sportbet. I’m use to putting in my bet as how much I want to risk. Like $200 means, I’m risking $200. On Sportbet it’s the opposite, means you want to win $200. So what happened is me wanting to put $500 on Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran, not realizing that SportBet made me wager $1000 instead. So double check!
Freak fights are opportunities - Couture over Toney, Tim Silvia vs. Pudzianowski. Also in hindsight, Overeem vs. Rogers was a HUGE mismatch.
Undefeated fights, hype vs. real deal - These are the kinda matches I have the most trouble with, is this new prospect overhyped or the real deal? I made money on Miller vs. Olivera, but lost twice this year betting against Cain. I'm thinking it's better for me to avoid these matches and stick to fights with guys that have a lot of history.
Immediate rematches - So Edgar beat Penn, and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shogun arguably beat Machida and he's an underdog in the immediate rematch? Shit didn't make sense to me. They beat them already, can beat them again. And I made $ from it. I'm also thinking rematches will favor the original winner. Fitch won against Alves and I'm betting on Maynard over Edgar.
MMA judging is an x factor. I’ve lost a lot of bets due to bad judging, dunham/sherk, phan/Garcia, lil nog vs. bader, Machida vs rampage. Not much you can do to prepare for it, but realize there’s no such thing as a “lock.” I use to think flash K.O.'s were the x factors but bad judging is getting more prolific.
Almost all of my bets were picking the winners of a fight. Now I’m expanding a bit and adding in how long the fight goes. Some fights it’ll be very predictable whether that it’ll go to a decision.
Worst bets: Bet on Alves vs. Fitch, Bet on Mir against Carwin, Any bet against Joey Beltran (Rolles Gracie, Tim Hague)
Best bets: Edgar over Penn in 2nd fight, Shogun vs. Machida in 2nd fight, Jim Miller vs. Olivera, Maynard vs. Florian, Okami vs. Marquardt
Stay away from matches that are gambles - How will Shogun's knee surgery affect his Cardio? What's JDS ground game like?
Real life effects on fighters - As soon as I heard Dan Lauzon got kicked out of his own training camp by his brother, I put money on Efrain Escudero because I knew the odds would sway.
Look at the weigh ins for weight cut diasters – This is a nice opportunity. Some guys are DRAINED when it comes to weight ins. One that comes to mind were Irvin vs. Sakara. As soon as I saw how terrible Irvin looked, I put money on Sakara. Another one that comes to mind was Dustin Hazelett’s cut to lightweight, losing to Bocek. Also Jake Shields performed really bad even though he won.
Dealing with emotions - Sometimes if I'll have a really bad event or streak and try to make it up by gambling more in the next event. Just gotta realize it's part of the game. Best way to make it up is to not lose more!
Fighters I will never bet on again: Joe Stevenson, Gonzaga
I’m aiming for +30 units this year. Some + factors for 2011
- More knowledge of fighters. most of the bets I have are for the "known" fighters so I'm looking forward to knowing more of the lesser names.
- Experience of 2010
- This forum. Only had MMA_Scientist's analysis of fights to look at, so it's definitely nice to have everyone's opinion to look at either.
Thanks for reading!
Comment