Ufn 24

[MMA_scientist]

No one is right all the time, you can't expect that. All you can hope is that over the course of a year, you win more often than the line indicates you should.

[Svino]

Like everybody, he's not always right.....He had Shogun over Bones

It's interesting. Usually journalists and long-time MMA followers are much better at picking fights than "the herd". But it often seems like they're more likely to get it wrong (by favoring the veteran) when it comes to these "promising up-and-comer" vs. "old guard fighter" bouts. I think it's partially for fighter fandom reasons, but also because they like to scoff people following the hype train. A lot of journalists were picking Shogun over Bones. I'm embarrassed to admit that I thought Nog would beat Valasquez.

[High5]

Like who?

Now that Performify and Hammersmith have shut their operations down, I don't know of anyone else.

Do you use twitter? Hammersmith is there, he doesn't predict the whole card but when he places a bet he usually tweets it.

[SPX]

^^ usually just the SD and BE breakdowns anymore, sometimes if I am on the fence, I will just google "Davis Nogeira breakdown" or something. These independent guys come and go. Everyone jumps off the bandwagon as soon as there is a dip. Losing streaks can and do last for months at a time, but most people (self included) don't have the faith to stick to the plan during all of that, much less stick by someone else while they lose for months on end. I don't really look for bet breakdowns, just fight breakdowns. I make my own bet decisions and that is not really going to be influenced by anyone else... but I am open to how other see a fight going down.

You should listen to the Sherdog Radio breakdown shows. They don't do them for every event, but you get three perspectives and from what I've seen they usually do pretty well.

[SPX]

Do you use twitter? Hammersmith is there, he doesn't predict the whole card but when he places a bet he usually tweets it.

I have to admit that I have no yet jumped on the Twitter bandwagon. Maybe I should do that.

[edman5555]

I would like to see a former fighter turned pro gambler make picks.

[BillyPilgrim]

I would like to see a former fighter turned pro gambler make picks.

Actual experience does not translate into actual ability to pick fights IME. Just look at the Pros Picks on SD, they are probably worse than your average guy.

[High5]

I have to admit that I have no yet jumped on the Twitter bandwagon. Maybe I should do that.

I must admit.....I like and use twitter, I don't tweet but I do follow.....kind of like here. Hammersmith does do breakdown and predictions on mma-hive.com,
there' also mmagamblingguide.com & mmagospel.com.

[BillyPilgrim]

It's interesting. Usually journalists and long-time MMA followers are much better at picking fights than "the herd". But it often seems like they're more likely to get it wrong (by favoring the veteran) when it comes to these "promising up-and-comer" vs. "old guard fighter" bouts. I think it's partially for fighter fandom reasons, but also because they like to scoff people following the hype train. A lot of journalists were picking Shogun over Bones. I'm embarrassed to admit that I thought Nog would beat Valasquez.

I am definitely guilty of this. After the Jones fight, I finally accepted that I do this on a regular basis. I had Nog beating Cain. I had Shogun beating Jones. I sort of thought Lil Nog would beat Davis tbh, even after my revelation. I think I get too caught up in going contrarian on these up and comers, and just need to accept that sometimes hype is justified.

[SPX]

Hammersmith does do breakdown and predictions on mma-hive.com

He did, but he just said the other day that he doesn't have time for it anymore.

there' also mmagamblingguide.com & mmagospel.com.

I'll have to check those out.

[BillyPilgrim]

I have founf that too many opinions give you analysis paralysis. So I generally just stick to you turds here.

[SPX]

I have founf that too many opinions give you analysis paralysis. So I generally just stick to you turds here.

I usually look for numbers. Obviously 9 out of 10 people picking the same guy to win doesn't mean that he will, but if those are the numbers, then I usually feel more comfortable in making a bet.

[BillyPilgrim]

^^ yeah, but to get 90% approval of a bet, you are generally looking at a pretty steep favorite. It is pretty rare you can get 9/10 guys to agree on a mild favorite or underdog.

[SPX]

^^ yeah, but to get 90% approval of a bet, you are generally looking at a pretty steep favorite. It is pretty rare you can get 9/10 guys to agree on a mild favorite or underdog.

That was just a generalization, but I have a real-world example.

At Bellator a few shows ago I was looking at betting Lyman Good, who was -140. All three guys on the Sherdog breakdown show picked him to win, but I went ahead and rolled with it. It worked out.

Of course, they also all picked Hornbuckle to win as well, so. . .

Basically I think this is good when you're already leaning toward a guy.

[edman5555]

Actual experience does not translate into actual ability to pick fights IME. Just look at the Pros Picks on SD, they are probably worse than your average guy.

They are passively interested in the outcome a lot of times. Also biased a lot of times. On top of that the pros picks don't equal out to actual bets they would make if they were gambling. They are just asked to pick the outcome of a fight. We get the luxury of saying I don't know and not betting. They usually don't. Bottom line though, knowledge = most important part of success. A former fighter/coach should have the most potential for gambling.